Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Snap call on that totally blank river. It's a much tougher decision if diamonds get there.
Villain presumably showed up with AT/A9/QT or a flopped straight, but he probably plays some random Axdd/Kxdd/Jxdd hands like this too.
Normally you're the nit and I yolo-shove the turn but I'm actually not sure what hands villain has that are less than two pair.
We can assume he will be 3betting AT+ but even if he doesn't, that only means he has more aces up on the turn that T9o doesn't beat. If he is as aggressive as OP describes, isn't he more likely to checkraise a draw? AXdd has a **** ton of equity and no real showdown value, if he plays straight forward aggressive these are the main bluffing hands. Same goes for KXdd which has even more equity with the added straight draw. He could possibly valuebet an ace but if he 3bets AJ then the strongest ace he can checkcall with is A8 which is unlikely to me. Any Jx has to be J7 or weaker which, again, he might very well checkraise flop with.
So do I think there are hands he could bluff with? Well maybe TXhh which has a pair and backdoor flushdraw on the flop and could possibly try to make Qx fold. If villain is also capable of thinking then he would realize OP doesn't have a bare ace that often so he could potentially try to get some hands to fold, I just don't quite see which hands he has the need to turn into a bluff.
Even though I am a fish and I call faster than the button appears on my screen I think a fold is actually the right play. I am going to put him on A9 and A9 only which is extremely nitty but I can't rationally assign him a much wider range.