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10nl Shove or Fold AA here? 10nl Shove or Fold AA here?

09-16-2010 , 01:40 AM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker Hand Converter from PokerConverter.com

saw flop

SB ($11.02)
BB ($9.30)
UTG ($20.92)
MP1 ($9.85)
MP2 ($4.85)
Hero (CO) ($10.39)
Button ($5.24)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
1 fold, MP1 bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.90, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 10, J, 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.20, MP1 raises to $3.20, Hero folds

Total pot: $4.35 | Rake: $0.21
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:09 AM
Against a passive opponent, this is fine. You might be behind his range of straights, sets, two-pair and combodraws.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:17 AM
stats? reads? im probably not folding here...way too many draws that you are ahead of. he could be protecting top pair as well.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:46 AM
so hes thinking i 3bet him with 88/99 here to checkraise kj qj???, i mean are you serious??... what draws am i ahead of that is going to check raise me??, aqs or aks is going to check raise me here rather than check call??, basically am i suppose to assume my opponents are donks & shove always at 10nl? cause top pair or any draw other than kqs doing this im bewildered you guys would think assume someone would do that
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
im bewildered you guys would think assume someone would do that
Its 5NL - Villian's line never makes sense
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:56 AM
^^ its actually 10nl & yea im sure i give people too much credit even when i played 5nl as well but i dont really like to make what i consider marginal shoves... but i guess i have to get the fact that at these limits these hands arent so marginal & just accept the variance
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 03:27 AM
It's an obvious shove if the guy is a bad donk (plenty of those at 10nl) but if he isn't, I don't think he's check-raising a pair of jacks here in a 3-bet pot. Maybe ace-jack if he's a decently aggressive player, but you've got 2 of the aces so that's a less likely hand for him to hold. Other than that, all you're really ahead of here is KK, QQ and KQ. KK almost surely would've 4-bet preflop, so really you're down to just queens and flipping with KQ with the much less likely KK or ace jack. If you saw him semi-bluff with a lot of draws, shove.

Calling is an option if he's a fairly aggressive player to try to check the hand down, but fold to further aggression. If he's sitting there with something like KJ or QJ, he might do this just in case you had ace-king and shut down when you call.

If he's passive, it's an easy fold imo. He shows up here with a set of tens and jacks way too often considering his pre-flop raise.

Overall without sitting there myself I think it's a good fold.

Edit: depending on reads he might have JT or 89 here, but I'd almost completely rule those out unless he's very LAG or somehow actually worries about balancing his range at 10nl.

Last edited by Kelarm; 09-16-2010 at 03:54 AM.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 03:57 AM
Experience trumps everything else. It sounds like you're lacking it, no offense. I mean, if you've shoved in situations like this enough times at 10NL and were usually beaten, you wouldn't be asking this question; you'd just ditch your aces and move on without much confusion.

However, IME, at 10NL you're quite often ahead when you shove here.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 04:32 AM
Right, well first off i'm maiking the 3bet bigger here, i find 11bbs works for me

3bet stats for villain would help determine villains logical flatting a 3bet oop range, but imo i reckon villain would flat TT-QQ, maybe KK/AK, KQs,KQos, and maybe KJ as well

meh i dunno about you but the standard line villains take with a set is c/c, c/r, although with the board being soo drawy, if i were villain i think i'd be check raising this spot with my straight/flush combo draws and sets, i think we can take 77 out of villains range, which leaves us with flush combo draws and 2 sets, QQ, KK, and a badly played KJ/AJ..

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 71.67%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KJ, KQ, KK, QQ, AcKc, AJ 28.33%


if we tighten the range a little, and take out the Garbage hands like AJ and KJ, we still have 66% equity:

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 66.69%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KQ, KK, QQ, AcKc 33.31%

If we take out the KQ off suit we still have a whopping 60% equity even against the very top of villains range:

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 60.57%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KK, QQ, AcKc 39.43%

I could be way off with villains check raising range here, but from my experience at the micro NIT ring, i think this is a shove, unless villain is a conclusively proven NIT...

Last edited by SI-KICK; 09-16-2010 at 04:59 AM.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 07:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
so hes thinking i 3bet him with 88/99 here to checkraise kj qj???, i mean are you serious??...
don't always assume that villains think about the game the same way you do.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SI-KICK
don't always assume that villains think about the game the same way you do.
Solid advice.

As played its probably an ok fold, although you'd have a better idea of his range going to the flop if you'd have 3bet more pre.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 09:28 AM
In a 3 bet pot with 100bb stacks it's never OK to fold AA on the flop. 3 bet shove the flop.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bartlett
In a 3 bet pot with 100bb stacks it's never OK to fold AA on the flop. 3 bet shove the flop.
So if you have AA and you 3bet it and flop comes 678 and you c-bet flop and they shove are you telling me you've ALWAYS got to call with AA just cos you've got 100bb? Sounds like one hell of a leak to me tbh.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 09:48 AM
fold is okay, the board is scarry
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 09:51 AM
I'll change that to "almost never OK to fold AA", probably what I should have said in the first place, but that's as far as I go. Maybe in your example, villain dependent, but never from the flop in the OP.

Maybe if villain is a 6/4 nit over 2k hands, but we're given no reads here, and against an unknown, this is a ship.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7WaystoStud7
fold is okay, the board is scarry
Most boards are scary. Completely dry boards are rare. If you always fold when the board is scary, you're folding most hands. You can't make money folding.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
so hes thinking i 3bet him with 88/99 here to checkraise kj qj???, i mean are you serious??... what draws am i ahead of that is going to check raise me??, aqs or aks is going to check raise me here rather than check call??, basically am i suppose to assume my opponents are donks & shove always at 10nl? cause top pair or any draw other than kqs doing this im bewildered you guys would think assume someone would do that
I ask for stats and reads and this is what you reply with? Good luck getting help with responses like this...ill nake sure to stay out of your threads
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 10:19 AM
And fwiw I not once said shove...u have a call button too ya know
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 10:42 AM
Anyone for a call and evaluate? We have position too...
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 10:45 AM
Assume villain shoved pot = 12.10 and you have to call 7.75 so odds are 1:1.5 and you need 40% equity.

Against TT-QQ, 77, JTs, KcQc, AcKc, AcQc you have 40.851% equity. Add in the fact that villain didn't shove so you have a small amount of FE and villain could have worse I'd ship it.

I don't like calling because villain will be betting nearly all turn cards, and you aren't going to thrilled to see anything except maybe the 2s, and even that doesn't change much, so I'd just get it in on the flop.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 02:55 PM
It's either a shove or fold. "Calling and evaluating" is terrible because over half of turn cards are going to make you puke.

I'm shoving vs unknown.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SI-KICK
Right, well first off i'm maiking the 3bet bigger here, i find 11bbs works for me

3bet stats for villain would help determine villains logical flatting a 3bet oop range, but imo i reckon villain would flat TT-QQ, maybe KK/AK, KQs,KQos, and maybe KJ as well

meh i dunno about you but the standard line villains take with a set is c/c, c/r, although with the board being soo drawy, if i were villain i think i'd be check raising this spot with my straight/flush combo draws and sets, i think we can take 77 out of villains range, which leaves us with flush combo draws and 2 sets, QQ, KK, and a badly played KJ/AJ..

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 71.67%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KJ, KQ, KK, QQ, AcKc, AJ 28.33%


if we tighten the range a little, and take out the Garbage hands like AJ and KJ, we still have 66% equity:

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 66.69%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KQ, KK, QQ, AcKc 33.31%

If we take out the KQ off suit we still have a whopping 60% equity even against the very top of villains range:

board: Tc Jc 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As Ah 60.57%
KcQc, TT, JJ, KK, QQ, AcKc 39.43%

I could be way off with villains check raising range here, but from my experience at the micro NIT ring, i think this is a shove, unless villain is a conclusively proven NIT...
I would take out KK and put 89 and 77 in there.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 06:50 PM
Without seeing the stats of the opponents, its impossible to tell you what the right play was.

Against most loose passive opponents, its a somewhat easy fold. Passive players only raise the fop/turn with very good hands - not draws.

Against a good LAG, shipping seems mandatory.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 06:57 PM
You want to fold AA in a 3bet pot? Are you mad? This is such an easy shove. Even calling is fine we have him crushed the majority of the time.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote
09-16-2010 , 08:26 PM
This is close enough to need some stats on the villain.

Without stats, my play here is call. If no draws hit on the turn, I get it all in. Otherwise, I fold to any aggression or check it down if possible.
10nl Shove or Fold AA here? Quote

      
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