Quote:
Originally Posted by Barbiaux
played on 8/5 JOB tonight. I was daydreaming while playing that I would finally bink a royal and get to come on here and finally say I got one. Sad to say I did not.
My question however is as follows. If you play JOB 8/5 the payout is 97.3 with perfect play. Tonight I was using my phone to make sure I had perfect play but one of the times I went to hit a button on my phone but my brain failed and I hit redraw without holding anything. My original board was K :spades: K:hearts: J:hearts: 10:hearts: 2:hearts: I was not sure if I should hold the 3 to a royal, 4 to a flush, or winning kings. When I held nothing I got Quads. Since I played perfect except for one spin but that one spin was a winner does this now change my expected payout on the machine. This is assuming that every other hand I played was perfect.
Generally at JoB just to remind people:
High Pair > 3 to RF > 4 to regular flush >>> tossing everything.
Yes this changes your expected payout for the worse, as any mistake will. This even includes if your mistake leads to a bigger winning hand because typically in analysis, we will consider the average return of the mistake that you make, and adjust the payout accordingly.
Let's consider the hand:
In this example for a 5 credit bet:
Correct play (holding high pair) returns 7.6318 credits on average:
Accidentally throwing everything for this given hand returns 1.5541 credits on average:
Cost of Error on average: 6.0777 credits
Fortunately for you, you gained 120 credits more than a pair of kings would, but in terms of analysis, this lucky hit is already included in the -6.0777 credit result.
To generally calculate return with errors we use this formula:
(Perfect Play return in coins - Value lost by errors in coins) / Total Coin in
Assuming no other mistakes are made, then the expected return of your machine becomes:
Expected return with Error = [N*(5 credits)*(0.972984) - 6.0777]/(5 credits)*N
Here N = number of hands played
So if you played 100 hands: 96.08%
250 hands: 96.81%
500 hands: 97.06%
1000 hands: 97.18%
As far as the phone device is concerned, Tom, I highly doubt the casino would care you used it on a machine that returns 97.3% of your money with perfect play. I could be wrong on this though. Also if you're using the phone hand analyzer enough to get caught, you are too rusty at video poker and need to practice for free at home more.