Quote:
Originally Posted by Barbiaux
I guess it was more of how many hands should I expect to play without going bust. Is it possible to figure this out with hitting a royal. How much of the EV is from the royal. I know this was mentioned ITT but I can't find it.
I answered your original question via simulation earlier ITT, and you'll get to play at least 19k hands half the time. As je points out, the RoR is 100% over an infinite number of hands as with ANY VP machine that pays < 100% return. Even for the pretty 99.96% VP machine that I found in Tunica last weekend.
As for sessions where someone fails to hit a royal, I can estimate this too with my code. The Royal contributes 1.99% to the return in an 8/5 JoB machine, so without a Royal the machine will return roughly 95.3%.
I ran a simulation of 1000 sessions where a player starts with $1000 on an 8/5 25c JoB machine. 64.5% of the sessions did not have a royal before the player went bust.
Below is a histogram of the number of hands the player played if she or she did not hit a Royal:
A summary of the number of hands when someone doesn't hit the Royal is as follows:
`Hands w/o Royal`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
7687 13060 15810 16420 19120 38440
This makes sense because if one doesn't hit a Royal, we probably expect the machine to take roughly 4.7% per hand, yielding 800/0.047 = 17k hands on average.
If we include the Royals we get this for the overall length of play:
`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
7687 14600 19650 29320 34900 329700
Also I wrote a bit of code to keep track of the number of Royals hit in each session. Here are those results: number of royals - number of sessions
0 - 645
1 - 189
2 - 75
3 - 44
4 - 20
5 - 13
6 - 8
7 - 1
8 - 3
9 - 0
10 - 1
11-16 - 0
17 -1 (major luckbox)
I possibly may have misread your question as I am thinking you're asking about the hand length one should expect if one does hit a royal...
I don't have this data for this sample, but I can collect it for another sample if you would want me to.