Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Other Gambling Games Discussion about other gambling games.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-27-2017, 09:04 PM   #26
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Didace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 12,207
Re: So Powerball is plus EV now

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
My utility argument against playing the lottery was supposed to mean that while $10 has fairly insignificant utility for most people, the opportunity to play a $10 lottery ticket is even more insignificant. You'd be better off keeping the $10.
You could say the same thing about going to a movie. I find playing the lottery for a large jackpot more entertaining.
Didace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2017, 04:14 AM   #27
browni3141
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 1,521
Re: So Powerball is plus EV now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace View Post
You could say the same thing about going to a movie. I find playing the lottery for a large jackpot more entertaining.
Sure, it depends on personal preference. For me personally I don't get much thrill out of gambling and would much rather spend the money on a movie. From the perspective of someone trying to increase their wealth even a +EV lottery is rarely worth it. The decision to buy a ticket should be based mostly on non-financial factors such as entertainment value.

I guess it didn't come out very clearly, but I was agreeing that EV should not be much of a factor when considering whether or not to buy a ticket, and disagreeing with the reasoning why.
browni3141 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2017, 05:18 PM   #28
callipygian
slowrolled by tpiranha!
 
callipygian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: but I don't know which
Posts: 18,395
Re: So Powerball is plus EV now

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
while $10 has fairly insignificant utility for most people, the opportunity to play a $10 lottery ticket is even more insignificant.
I mildly disagree.

While it varies from person to person, big prizes like the lottery hold disproportionate utility because it represents the only way people will break a certain threshold of wealth.

Imagine all the stuff you want to buy or do, and how much it would cost to do each one. Like let's say you want to start your own business and it would take $100,000. It's entirely reasonable that someone can make or save or borrow $100,000, so the idea of spending your life on 1 cent shots to try and win that seems silly compared to going out and earning it by conventional means. But if you want to do something that costs $10,000,000, it's something that's pretty out of reach for most people and entering a $1 lottery is worth more utility even though it carries thr same EV.

I agree with you that above a certain payout utility starts flattening out - that most people don't dream of doing something with $500,000,000 that they can't do with $100,000,000. To that end, I think we all agree that there isn't a significant difference between a big jackpot and a huge jackpot.

But I think there is a significant difference in utility between the baseline jackpot ($15 million?) and a medium one ($150ish million).
callipygian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2017, 10:10 AM   #29
heehaww
Pooh-Bah
 
heehaww's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: It was an attractive goat in AR
Posts: 4,202
Re: So Powerball is plus EV now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lattimer View Post
The bolded is incorrect, though it doesn't take away from your point.
Average and median are two different things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
I think it's correct.

BruceZ posted a proof of this a few years back, maybe my recollection is wrong.
It's just a geometric distribution.

Let P(x) = P(1st success on trial #x)
E = P(1) + 2*P(2) + 3*P(3) + ...
= p + 2pq + 3pq^2 + ...

Anyone with a calculator can see that that approaches N.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77 View Post
A simple example would be probability of rolling at least 1 seven from 2 dice in 6 trials, = 0.665.
For something like the Powerball, without any calculation we know it's close to (e-1)/e =~ 63.212%
The 50% mark will be at approximately N*ln(2)
heehaww is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 08:10 PM   #30
CORed
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 6,041
Re: So Powerball is plus EV now

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenseiPoker View Post
No, because of massive taxes
Taxes, the probability of splitting a jackpot, and the actual present value of the jackpot, all need to be taken into consideration in calculating EV.

When I mention "present value" I am referring to the fact that the advertised jackpot total is actually the total payout of a long term (20 years, IIRC) annuity. Most lotteries also have lump sum option which is considerably less that the advertised total.

In the end, with the probability of winning so low, the EV is academic. My personal take on lotteries is that I simply refuse to play any game where the house takes 50%. Slots on the Vegas strip are a better deal than state lotteries Lotteries truly are a tax on the mathematically illiterate.
CORed is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online