Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Other Gambling Games Discussion about other gambling games.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-23-2016, 01:36 AM   #1
faxanadu
journeyman
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 274
It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

100% reload bonus up to $100
25x rollover


I used the following calculator

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm


and this were the results it gave...




I adjusted the rollover requirement to 8333 because blackjack only pays 60%
faxanadu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 09:37 AM   #2
OmahaFanatical4
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,128
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

"because blackjack only pays 60%"

can you elaborate on this part please? a change to the blackjack payout can dramatically affect the house edge.
OmahaFanatical4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 09:38 AM   #3
OmahaFanatical4
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,128
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

also must you bet $2500 (100 x 25) or $5000 (200 x 25)?
OmahaFanatical4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 09:38 AM   #4
OmahaFanatical4
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,128
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Do you plan to clear the bonus on blackjack and if so what are the exact rules of the blackjack game they offer?
OmahaFanatical4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 09:40 AM   #5
OmahaFanatical4
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,128
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

oh I understand what you mean. you mean that blackjack only goes to clearing the bonus at a rate of 60%. if u must wager 8000 then the house edge on that money is $40 (8000 * .005). so the bonus should have an expected value of $60. that assumes you can competently read a basic strategy chart and make sure to double your A8 v 6 and A7 v 2, to say nothing of hitting your soft eighteens vs ten and 12s vs 3s.

This assumes you play a blackjack game with a house edge of around half a percent, which is typical american rules.
OmahaFanatical4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 02:43 PM   #6
faxanadu
journeyman
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 274
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaFanatical4 View Post
oh I understand what you mean. you mean that blackjack only goes to clearing the bonus at a rate of 60%. if u must wager 8000 then the house edge on that money is $40 (8000 * .005). so the bonus should have an expected value of $60. that assumes you can competently read a basic strategy chart and make sure to double your A8 v 6 and A7 v 2, to say nothing of hitting your soft eighteens vs ten and 12s vs 3s.

This assumes you play a blackjack game with a house edge of around half a percent, which is typical american rules.
Yes its $200 x 25. At first i thought it was $100 x 25 ... that would of been nice hah.

Yes blackjack doesn't pay 1:1 like slots, only 60% supposedly. At 1:1 the +EV would be around $73 if my math is right.

I'm absolutely positive on the house edge only being 0.54

It looks like you agree with my math. So this bonus should be doable with no risk of ruin (assuming $1 bets each hand) on a $100 deposit (which effectively doubles to $200)? Do they just figure that nobody is going to sit down and play 8000 hands of blackjack?

Last edited by faxanadu; 08-23-2016 at 02:48 PM.
faxanadu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 05:11 PM   #7
_Z_
grinder
 
_Z_'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 526
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Make sure you can cash out the bonus, sometimes they subtract off the bonus amount from your cash out. There's still a way to play it profitably (Google "sticky bonus"), but it's high variance.
_Z_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 07:41 PM   #8
faxanadu
journeyman
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 274
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by _Z_ View Post
Make sure you can cash out the bonus, sometimes they subtract off the bonus amount from your cash out. There's still a way to play it profitably (Google "sticky bonus"), but it's high variance.
I was just planning on playing through the hands betting 1 dollar a hand and maybe bumping it up to $2 to make the process go faster if the variances on $1 happens to be positive after a thousand hands or so.
faxanadu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 09:47 PM   #9
faxanadu
journeyman
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 274
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Can someone help with the math on $1000 deposit with $1000 bonus at 25x rollover betting just $1 a hand?

To me it looks like your risk of ruin is virtually zero. Meaning that you almost should never fall below your deposit. Of course that would take 83,000 hands.
faxanadu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2016, 10:46 PM   #10
bpb
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,244
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by faxanadu View Post
Can someone help with the math on $1000 deposit with $1000 bonus at 25x rollover betting just $1 a hand?

To me it looks like your risk of ruin is virtually zero. Meaning that you almost should never fall below your deposit. Of course that would take 83,000 hands.
Bet 50c/hand, then your risk of ruin will be much lower.
bpb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-24-2016, 01:55 AM   #11
OmahaFanatical4
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,128
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Actually if you bet $1 a hand you are almost guaranteed to make a misclick or two somewhere along the way because u r playing 8k hands. Actually I think you are significantly better off betting like 20% of your initial starting amount. Is it a match bonus? If that is the case and you have $200 to play with right away you want to start off betting $40. That way you will save a bunch of time, and if you don't go bust right away and win a few bets then you can decide if you want to lock up the win and bet really small. Well it depends on how much money you have really, if you have only like $500 to your name then you should bet $1 a hand, but if you had like 10k or w/e then you are much better off not spending so much time on this project and just straight up betting 20% of your triproll until it is cleared or you run good and decide to lock up the win.
OmahaFanatical4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2016, 03:04 AM   #12
grando1.0
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
grando1.0's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Olympic Rustling
Posts: 10,315
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

A lot of casinos will give you hassle if you're just bonus grinding them. Oh man why oh why didn't I do more of that back in the day...
grando1.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2016, 02:21 PM   #13
The IRS
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 228
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

I mean I don't want to give away the house but you make way more on these by betting big because you don't have to wager anymore the times you bust out...just saying.
The IRS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2016, 05:14 PM   #14
browni3141
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 1,337
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The IRS View Post
I mean I don't want to give away the house but you make way more on these by betting big because you don't have to wager anymore the times you bust out...just saying.
I feel like an idiot for not thinking of this. It seems so obvious. It's a nice way of minimizing the effect of the house edge when completing rollover, because you don't have to complete the rollover every time. The EV of the bonus becomes close to the full value of the bonus, I think?

Say you deposit $1000 with a 100% match bonus. If you just complete the rollover normally your EV is 1000-C, where C is the cost of rollover. Instead if you bet fairly large at a low house edge bet like the pass line until you either lose the $2000 or double it, your EV is .5*-1000+.5*(3000-C). Your EV is 1000-.5*C. You've halved the cost of rollover to your EV. You can can do this as long as you like. It works because you get to bet money that is not yours yet and quit if you lose it. There would be an optimal stopping point somewhere. The most significant factor with this would be one's bankroll, I expect. It might not be desirable to risk $8000 to gain .125*C in EV.

Another benefit is that you save a lot of time. If you use a strategy that busts you in a few minutes 90% of the time or something and you only have to complete the rollover 10% of the time, there is a huge savings in time compared to completing the rollover 100% of the time for a huge gain in hourly.

It seems like the biggest downside is that you would need to withdraw your winnings and re-deposit to continue doing this, and the sites don't like that and will probably put restrictions on you.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2016, 11:39 AM   #15
timbuk40
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 7
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Pros:
Save time
Increase mathematical EV (can turn -EV to +EV even)
Looks more recreational, can help get future bonuses

Cons:
Higher variance to BR
Puts your exposure of getting stiffed much higher if site isn't reputable (can affect actual EV)
timbuk40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2016, 04:58 AM   #16
GBV
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 1,318
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I feel like an idiot for not thinking of this. It seems so obvious.
You think you are an idiot for not thinking of this? Have you seen some of the posts on this forum?
GBV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2017, 01:20 AM   #17
Annorax
veteran
 
Annorax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: [censored]
Posts: 2,784
Re: It seems this casino bonus is +EV... math check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaFanatical4 View Post
"because blackjack only pays 60%"

can you elaborate on this part please? a change to the blackjack payout can dramatically affect the house edge.
He means blackjack bets only count 60% of the amount toward playthrough. The actual game plays normally.

@OP: Read that again please; I've been seeing a bunch of Ignition bonuses that only count BJ at 10%, yours might have changed as well.
Annorax is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online