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Old 07-30-2017, 07:48 PM   #1
OilSpill
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Roulette is beatable?

Hey guys,

Normally I play poker online or live at a casino. To study, I normally watch YouTube videos. In the recommendations one day I saw a couple videos about roulette and how to beat it. There's a couple that seem to work, but there's one theory I find interesting.

Basically, you just pick a color. Red or black. Place one chip on it and double it each time you lose. When you win, you go back to betting one chip. Each time you win you will be ahead by one chip.

Have you ever used this in a casino or online?

Do you know of any others that work? I feel like it's so obvious people would be making a lot of money if their starting bet was $100 then they would make $100 every time they win.

Thanks in advance!
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Old 07-30-2017, 08:29 PM   #2
NewOldGuy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

This system is called Martingale. Like all roulette betting systems, it no effect on the negative EV of the game. You will still lose a little over $5 of every $100 wagered in roulette, and that is controlled by the rules of the game. Betting systems don't change it. What Martingale does is skew the distribution of outcomes to have many tiny wins offset by the occasional huge loss that wipes them all out.

The game is not beatable without some form of cheating.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 07-30-2017 at 08:36 PM.
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Old 07-31-2017, 01:12 AM   #3
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

Do you consider bias play and visual prediction to be "cheating" or were you just making a statement that is very widely applicable
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Old 07-31-2017, 07:36 AM   #4
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by Fubster View Post
Do you consider bias play and visual prediction to be "cheating" or were you just making a statement that is very widely applicable
The latter, and I wouldn't consider those cheating. I was answering in the context of OPs question, which was about betting strategies.
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Old 08-01-2017, 04:04 PM   #5
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

To beat roulette we need to find a "bias" in the widest acception of the word.
It's a rare finding and almost always such bias works as a temporary effect.

Obviously we are double less stupid trying to find such bias on a single zero wheel.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:37 PM   #6
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post

Obviously we are double less stupid trying to find such bias on a single zero wheel.

The "strategy" was for a single wheel. But what do you mean by this? I don't quite follow.
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Old 08-02-2017, 02:39 PM   #7
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

One born every minute.
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Old 08-04-2017, 05:13 AM   #8
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by OilSpill View Post
The "strategy" was for a single wheel. But what do you mean by this? I don't quite follow.
Besides not to playing roulette at all, -2.7% should be better than -5.26%. :-)

Of course such negative expectations rely upon the fact that every number is equally probable per every single spin.

Again no one progression, sophisticated or not, could have the best of it itlr whether every number will be equally probable.
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Old 08-04-2017, 08:12 AM   #9
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

Here is a thought question.

What if you walked up to a wheel that has landed on red 20 times in a row.

Would you bet on black cuz its "due" or
Bet on red because there must be something going on with red and you want in on the action!
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Old 08-04-2017, 08:32 AM   #10
asymbacguy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by magking1 View Post
Here is a thought question.

What if you walked up to a wheel that has landed on red 20 times in a row.

Would you bet on black cuz its "due" or
Bet on red because there must be something going on with red and you want in on the action!
You do not want to bet anything based on that.

The probability next spin(s) will be red or black is always the same: 18/37.
What happened is just a 4.5 sigma occurence with no meaning.
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Old 08-04-2017, 09:49 AM   #11
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
You do not want to bet anything based on that.

The probability next spin(s) will be red or black is always the same: 18/37.
What happened is just a 4.5 sigma occurrence with no meaning.
Obviously both colors are still equally likely if the wheel is unbiased, so you could say it doesn't matter what color we bet on. And we know that that opposite color is not ever "due", whether the wheel is fair or not, that's just gambler's fallacy. However, we do have evidence that red *might* be favored by bias, if there is a bias.

So you make a Pascal's wager here. You choose red "just in case".
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Old 08-04-2017, 10:48 AM   #12
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Obviously both colors are still equally likely if the wheel is unbiased, so you could say it doesn't matter what color we bet on. And we know that that opposite color is not ever "due", whether the wheel is fair or not, that's just gambler's fallacy. However, we do have evidence that red *might* be favored by bias, if there is a bias.

So you make a Pascal's wager here. You choose red "just in case".
Yes, it makes sense.

Anyway in order to catch up possible wheel defects EC are the worst options to be considered.
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Old 08-06-2017, 04:40 PM   #13
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

Haven't looked into it much but I've seen some gamblers post Roulette strategy on instagram. From what I saw I think it was just a martingale system.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:22 PM   #14
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

European "La Partage" Roulette has -1.35% EV on the side bets and -2.70% EV on all other bets for every single spin
European Roulette has -2.70% EV for every single spin
American Roulette has -5.26% EV for every single spin

If you think you can beat the roulette, you are on the wrong side.
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Old 08-08-2017, 05:41 AM   #15
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

the math is pretty easy and clear, you cant beat roulette my friends
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Old 08-08-2017, 06:15 AM   #16
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

You can not beat roulette. All have been written why. Anyway, Einstein said this also, soo.. Does not matter what tactics you pick.. in the long run you are loser...

Think of it like this: If roulette would be beatable? Would casinos still have it in their games? Because this is a game that person plays against casino (and not like poker: casinos takes rake: people play against each other).
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Old 08-08-2017, 02:57 PM   #17
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

and this is why casinos make so much money
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Old 08-08-2017, 09:10 PM   #18
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

It all comes down to whether you can identify and exploit a bias (mechanical or human) before the casino can identify and correct it. Probably every roulette table in North America, at least, has one of those boards that displays the past N spins. Therefore, the casino has access to a realtime database of the wheel's behaviour, and having a computer analyze the results for bias is child's play. The casino should know long before you do.
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:53 PM   #19
asymbacguy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
It all comes down to whether you can identify and exploit a bias (mechanical or human) before the casino can identify and correct it. Probably every roulette table in North America, at least, has one of those boards that displays the past N spins. Therefore, the casino has access to a realtime database of the wheel's behaviour, and having a computer analyze the results for bias is child's play. The casino should know long before you do.
Maybe casinos will figure out a possible bias when it's too late.

More interestingly it's when casinos think their wheels aren't vulnerable anyway and anyhow because they have been instructed that those wheels are perfectly unbeatable.
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Old 08-11-2017, 09:15 PM   #20
e_holle
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
Maybe casinos will figure out a possible bias when it's too late.

More interestingly it's when casinos think their wheels aren't vulnerable anyway and anyhow because they have been instructed that those wheels are perfectly unbeatable.
I don't work in a casino, so I can't speak to what casinos actually do. I do know that detecting a biased wheel can be so easy for a casino and they could know well before a player could identify it and use the information. A smart crooked dealer would be harder, and the cheating player would know before the casino, naturally. That could go on for a while before the house catches on.
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:20 PM   #21
asymbacguy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
I don't work in a casino, so I can't speak to what casinos actually do. I do know that detecting a biased wheel can be so easy for a casino and they could know well before a player could identify it and use the information. A smart crooked dealer would be harder, and the cheating player would know before the casino, naturally. That could go on for a while before the house catches on.
Yep, but there are many kind of biases to be detected and definetely some players are smarter than casinos.
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Old 08-16-2017, 02:33 AM   #22
isildur99
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

of course, thats why casinos have them, they like to give away free money (/sarcasm)
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Old 08-16-2017, 11:34 AM   #23
U shove i call
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

I discovered the best system to beat roulette is bet once in your life and win that spin. If you play over a sustained period its impossible. God i remember buying ebay e-book guides back in 2005 thinking i could beat roulette.
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Old 08-17-2017, 07:25 PM   #24
asymbacguy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

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Originally Posted by U shove i call View Post
God i remember buying ebay e-book guides back in 2005 thinking i could beat roulette.
Best gambling material and gambling studies aren't available publicly.
As there's no point to let casinos know anything else different than their games are totally unbeatable.
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Old 08-25-2017, 08:54 PM   #25
asymbacguy
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Re: Roulette is beatable?

Roulette is a so unbeatable game that when casinos find a player seemingly winning too much on long terms, they simply show him the door.
The prove that the wheel is unbeatable.

Whenever consistent money it's lost, well, you'll never know.
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