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Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack

11-06-2011 , 12:58 PM
I'm not a stranger to online blackjack, having won and lost money on sites like Betfair, RedKings, Betsson, Betsafe, Merge and iPoker. Not once have I made an issue when I lost but I felt the session I had last night was much different.

Last night I was playing blackjack on Whitebet's website and lost approx $200 euros. The manner of how I lost it was very suspicious. I started out playing 2 spots for $0.7 to $1 each, at $0.1-$5 Blackjack Classic. For about an hour, I was going back and forth, breaking even, before losing a bit. That's fine, so far it seemed fair. I decided to go play at the $1-$40 tables and for another 45 mins everything seemed fine. I ended up being ahead by a little bit and then all of a sudden, the table became unbeatable.

20, 21, 21, 20, 21, 20, 21, the dealer would be making his hand, never busting even with a bust card showing. This went on for like 25-35 mins. I tried switching it up by playing 1 hand, 2 hands, 3 hands, but nothing seemed to work. I even closed and reopened the game window a few times but the result was still the same. Interestingly, the game would often pause before dealing the cards that made the dealer's winning hand. Other times, the game would freeze and I would get a message "this game is currently available". I would be forced to close and reopen the game several times.

My first thought was "ok, maybe the dealer is just hot and I'll catch some cards". So I went back to $.1-$5 table and started betting $.1 and busted god knows how many hands before the dealer started busting a few times in a row. When that happened I upped the bet to $3-5 and as soon as I did, I'd lose consecutively. Eventually, I lost it all.

Rather than write support who would more than likely chalk it up as really bad luck, I thought I'd share the experience on this forum first. I've lost money, and far more than this amount at other sites, but I felt this experience was a little odd. Has anyone experienced anything similar?
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 02:39 PM
Only play at tables with full ash trays, and the dealer's rack half depleted of chips. Beware of middle-aged Female Asian dealers.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 03:55 PM
back in the day when I was a complete bonus whore I would notice on a few sites that after I would play 30 min or so the dealer would hit 20 or 21 just about everytime. When this would happen I just went to my next casino and came back to the one the next day.

OTH, I have had sessions in a casino where I would lose 15 out of 20 hands and the few I won was only because I got a 21. It is possible that you are only noticing this because it was a bad result. Do you remember the times when the dealer pulls a 22 10 times in a row.
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11-06-2011 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barbiaux
back in the day when I was a complete bonus whore I would notice on a few sites that after I would play 30 min or so the dealer would hit 20 or 21 just about everytime. When this would happen I just went to my next casino and came back to the one the next day.

OTH, I have had sessions in a casino where I would lose 15 out of 20 hands and the few I won was only because I got a 21. It is possible that you are only noticing this because it was a bad result. Do you remember the times when the dealer pulls a 22 10 times in a row.
Plenty of times but I have never seen the dealer make 20, 21 and almost every hand for 30 mins straight.
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11-06-2011 , 05:13 PM
21 is a really swingy game. Nothing that happened in the span of 30 minutes is likely to be that far on the extreme end of anything in that game. So much so that whether or not it's rigged should basically be a seperate question.

So in summary you probably can't even chalk it up to really bad luck. It may or may not be cheating but your story won't really have anything to do with figuring that out. Martingaling sucks when you run a little bad at a game where you take the worst of it to begin with.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 06:10 PM
I've gone a whole 6-deck shoe winning only once. It happens.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 06:25 PM
Online BJ doesn't have to be rigged when you have mathematically challenged players attempting to beat a game with a house edge.

Really now, you play a game you know eventually you'll lose all your money at, and then when it happens you wonder if it's rigged?
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
For about an hour, I was going back and forth, breaking even, before losing a bit. That's fine, so far it seemed fair. I decided to go play at the $1-$40 tables and for another 45 mins everything seemed fine. I ended up being ahead by a little bit and then all of a sudden, the table became unbeatable.
The table was unbeatable from the moment you sat down, as is any continuous shuffle blackjack game dealt anywhere.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 10:56 PM
Well, I believe blackjack is beatable, auto shuffle or not, in the short-term over a long term. What I mean by that is hit & run. Obviously a bankroll, good rules (surrender), and extreme discipline is key. I've taken Betfair blackjack for over $7k starting with $100 over 5 days, over several sessions, wagering over $400k across 50,000+ rounds/hands. Then I tilted after a bad rush and that's where the lack of discipline brought everything crumbling down (betting too much per hand).
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-06-2011 , 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Online BJ doesn't have to be rigged when you have mathematically challenged players attempting to beat a game with a house edge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
Well, I believe blackjack is beatable, auto shuffle or not, in the short-term over a long term. What I mean by that is hit & run. Obviously a bankroll, good rules (surrender), and extreme discipline is key. I've taken Betfair blackjack for over $7k starting with $100 over 5 days, over several sessions, wagering over $400k across 50,000+ rounds/hands. Then I tilted after a bad rush and that's where the lack of discipline brought everything crumbling down (betting too much per hand).
So you admit the house has an edge and you still think you can beat the game. I don't suppose if people said you were in error you'd believe them would you?
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
Well, I believe blackjack is beatable, auto shuffle or not, in the short-term over a long term. What I mean by that is hit & run. Obviously a bankroll, good rules (surrender), and extreme discipline is key.
You are mistaken. You will have sessions with variance on your side, but the average outcome (EV) will be a loss in a game with a continuous shuffle.

The deck can't tell the difference between short term and long term and the negative expectation is exactly the same. Your "hit & run" system will absolutely lose more often than it wins, eventually.

Last edited by spadebidder; 11-07-2011 at 12:16 AM.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:24 AM
Today at a local casino I lost 14 straight hands before winning 1, then lost the next 5 in a row. It is an incredibly swingy game. Luckily for me varience swung back in my favor and I was able to leave a winner after that streak.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
You are mistaken. You will have sessions with variance on your side, but the average outcome (EV) will be a loss in a game with a continuous shuffle.

The deck can't tell the difference between short term and long term and the negative expectation is exactly the same. Your "hit & run" system will absolutely lose more often than it wins, eventually.
If you have the bankroll and discipline, at some point, you will always be ahead when variance is on your side. It's up to you to walk away and not give it back. I know someone who has done exactly what I said for years without ever counting a card and you cannot say he's been lucky for years. Anyone with $100k can take the house for $300 in a session. They could do that every day for the rest of their lives if they had the discipline. No one practices BRM when it comes to blackjack. Very few people have that discipline and while it's a pain in the ass, it can be done.

Back to my original post, I found the online thing odd bcuz it's something that I've never experienced online which is the freak side of variance.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
So you admit the house has an edge and you still think you can beat the game. I don't suppose if people said you were in error you'd believe them would you?
Yup, I admit the house has an edge. See my previous post for the rest
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
If you have the bankroll and discipline, at some point, you will always be ahead when variance is on your side. It's up to you to walk away and not give it back. I know someone who has done exactly what I said for years without ever counting a card and you cannot he's been lucky for years. Anyone with $100k can take the house for $300 in a session. They could do that every day for the rest of their lives if they had the discipline. No one practices BRM when it comes to blackjack. Very few people have that discipline and while it's a pain in the ass, it can be done.
Ignorance like this is exactly why casinos make obscene amounts of money.

Perhaps you don't understand the math or the logic, but hopefully at some point you'll have an epiphany and laugh about just how ignorant you were at one time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
Yup, I admit the house has an edge. See my previous post for the rest
The house has an edge but yet you can still win long term. Wow.

By this logic every single game in the casino is beatable. Every. Single. Game.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Ignorance like this is exactly why casinos make obscene amounts of money.

Perhaps you don't understand the math or the logic, but hopefully at some point you'll have an epiphany and laugh about just how ignorant you were at one time.


The house has an edge but yet you can still win long term. Wow.

By this logic every single game in the casino is beatable. Every. Single. Game.

Clearly, you didn't read what I said. So let me reiiterate that I do know someone who does it. You are basically telling me that he has been super lucky for years - land-based, 3:2, DAS, Early Surrender, resplitting allowed -- continuous shuffle.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Ignorance like this is exactly why casinos make obscene amounts of money.

Perhaps you don't understand the math or the logic, but hopefully at some point you'll have an epiphany and laugh about just how ignorant you were at one time.


The house has an edge but yet you can still win long term. Wow.

By this logic every single game in the casino is beatable. Every. Single. Game.
LOL, and that's where your ignorance is clear. This went from a question re: online blackjack to saying every casino game including slots is the same as blackjack continuous shuffle. It's not so keep it on topic.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 01:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
You are mistaken. You will have sessions with variance on your side, but the average outcome (EV) will be a loss in a game with a continuous shuffle.

The deck can't tell the difference between short term and long term and the negative expectation is exactly the same. Your "hit & run" system will absolutely lose more often than it wins, eventually.
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix10.html
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 03:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
The house has an edge but yet you can still win long term. Wow.

By this logic every single game in the casino is beatable. Every. Single. Game.
Only if you have the bankroll and discipline.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 08:29 AM
Discipline. It takes a lot of Discipline.

"Hey, that guy will pay you .90 cents if you flip heads, and you pay him $1 dollar if you flip tails. Game can't be beat, it has a 10% house edge."

"I can beat it!!!"

"How you gonna do that?"

"By getting a short term advantage over the long term"

"HUH?"

"Discipline. Discipline, my friend, Discipline."

Gosh, I wish I owned a casino.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
If you have the bankroll and discipline, at some point, you will always be ahead when variance is on your side. It's up to you to walk away and not give it back. I know someone who has done exactly what I said for years without ever counting a card and you cannot say he's been lucky for years. Anyone with $100k can take the house for $300 in a session. They could do that every day for the rest of their lives if they had the discipline.
Your friend has been lucky or less than honest about his results. Short sessions are exactly the same as one long session with some breaks thrown in. Thinking that walking out of the casino and walking back in changes anything at all is seriously ignorant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
This link does not support your argument. You obviously have no understanding of the math behind the game, or of simple gambling principles in general. Others have already stated all I have left to say on it.

Last edited by spadebidder; 11-07-2011 at 09:05 AM.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sOkAiyA
If you have the bankroll and discipline, at some point, you will always be ahead when variance is on your side. It's up to you to walk away and not give it back. I know someone who has done exactly what I said for years without ever counting a card and you cannot say he's been lucky for years. Anyone with $100k can take the house for $300 in a session. They could do that every day for the rest of their lives if they had the discipline. No one practices BRM when it comes to blackjack. Very few people have that discipline and while it's a pain in the ass, it can be done.

Back to my original post, I found the online thing odd bcuz it's something that I've never experienced online which is the freak side of variance.


The only way to "walk away" is to quit for good. What is the difference between playing a thousand hands ten hands at a time or in one sitting? Your person with 100K has a very real chance to take the house for a few hundred a day and a very real chance to go bust. He also has a very real chance to sit down and take them for half a million in one sitting or to go bust. The chance to go bust is proportionally greater in each scenario so called "bankroll discipline" which consists of driving home/shutting off your monitor every now and then has nothing to do with it.

You also weren't on the freak side of variance. A .300 hitter or average 3 pt shooter had like a week where they weren't missing. That's the extent of the "freak" variance you experienced. It's a yawner.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_math
Discipline. It takes a lot of Discipline.

"Hey, that guy will pay you .90 cents if you flip heads, and you pay him $1 dollar if you flip tails. Game can't be beat, it has a 10% house edge."

"I can beat it!!!"

"How you gonna do that?"

"By getting a short term advantage over the long term"

"HUH?"

"Discipline. Discipline, my friend, Discipline."

Gosh, I wish I owned a casino.
Then do it. Or take advantage of the suckers some other way. This is like the posts by people asking for a time machine. It's not as easy as they like to think.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
Your friend has been lucky or less than honest about his results.
I probably guess both, but more the latter. I'm even pretty sure a decent chunk of this forum exaggerates their winnings. Gamblers do this crap all the time if meticulous records are not kept.
Really bad luck or rigged? Blackjack Quote
11-07-2011 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by acesholdup
The only way to "walk away" is to quit for good. What is the difference between playing a thousand hands ten hands at a time or in one sitting? Your person with 100K has a very real chance to take the house for a few hundred a day and a very real chance to go bust. He also has a very real chance to sit down and take them for half a million in one sitting or to go bust. The chance to go bust is proportionally greater in each scenario so called "bankroll discipline" which consists of driving home/shutting off your monitor every now and then has nothing to do with it.

You also weren't on the freak side of variance. A .300 hitter or average 3 pt shooter had like a week where they weren't missing. That's the extent of the "freak" variance you experienced. It's a yawner.
We could argue about this all day, every day but I will agree to disagree. Yes, blackjack is known as a -EV game without counting. Yet, I know someone who does exactly that. I've done it short-term, the longest being 3 months. He does it consistently. Not everyone can do it. I can't. But I believe it can be done. Can't deny it when you know someone for ten years who does it. I do not know a soul who can consistently be a winner at slots or any other casino game. But blackjack without counting, CSM, I do. Every now and then I'll attempt another epic run but tilt or greed usually ends it.

I should retract one thing I said in a previous post -- yes, you do have to get "lucky"/ride your streaks.

Stats show that not everyone can become a billionaire despite the odds. Surprise, there's some people that actually can. So I believe that too. Things can be done by some that most others cannot do.
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