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Old 08-09-2017, 01:14 AM   #1
Fjb327
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NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

I'll start off by saying that this is in now way "a way" to beat the game. Craps is unbeatable. However, I've found this method to be a very entertaining way to play craps. When you win, you can win big. And when you lose, you can lose big and slowly climb back to a reasonable lost amount before calling it quits.


This is for a minimum $10 table and is a regression method:

Wait until a point is established. Bet 40/48/48/40 on the inside numbers.

$176 will be risked. From this point on, every time the dice is rolled in this circumstance: 50% of the time you will hit an inside number get your risked money back and win $14. 33.3% of the time will be a push (non inside number but no 7). 16.6% of the time you will hit a 7 and lose $176.

Once you hit your inside number you gain $56. Take back the original money you bet ($176 + $12). Now bet $44 on the inside numbers (10/12/12/10).

From this point forward: Any number that's hit is pure profit. If the point number is hit and the come out roll is coming. Leave the bet "off." But if the come out roll shooter hits a 7, I'd turn it on (not expecting lightening to strike twice).

This method doesn't fail me much in live play and simulation. It is very rare that every time you risk the $176 that it will be wiped out by a 7. 83.3% of the time it won't be.

I guess the math would go like this:

Risk: $176 to win $12 + X * $14 (X = # of times an inside # is hit before the seven rolls)

Lose: $176 (16.6%) of the time

So out of 25 of these situations you will lose the $176 approx four to five times: $880. 50% of the time (12 or 13) you will hit your point and gain at least $12. And those 8 other times, you push and either lose or hit your numbers. So lets just say 5 out of those 8 times, you hit your point since your more likely to do so than 7 out.

Out of 25 scenarios:

18 times you hit your point. $216 + $14 * X
7 times you lose $176. $1232

After risking $176 and having it pay off, You'd have to hit an inside number 72 times to make it a profitable play. That averages out to about 4x each before 7out to be profitable.

Luck has a lot to do with it but it's been pretty profitable for me thus far
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Old 08-09-2017, 03:02 PM   #2
e_holle
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

In other words, play at the 4-unit level, hoping for a mild statistical favour, then coasting the rest of the time at the 1-unit level? Why not? Three times out of four, you can pull this off easily enough. That fourth time can be a bastard, though.
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Old 08-09-2017, 03:20 PM   #3
Fjb327
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

Is there a name for it?

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Old 08-15-2017, 04:46 AM   #4
SuitedJunk
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

I don't think a name... Basically betting the inside, taking down your bet, and playing with profits...

Works every time, except when point is made and the next roll is red...

I feel like every time (lol sample size) there are players at the table making weird place bets that take lots of time after the point is established red is rolled.

If you are going to do this bet, I say do it at ANY time... No reason to wait for a point to be established... You can place bets at any time...


I played with a guy who bet only a 3-Way red on the come out... Started with a 1500 3-Way, then went to a 3000 3-way then a 6000 3-Way, progressed until I watched 100K leave his rail... He was only betting this on the come out... no one rolled a red on the come out. However the very next roll or two was red with no one betting it...
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Old 08-15-2017, 12:42 PM   #5
magking1
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

I would say with any regression model as such as long as one can not go on tilt when the (inevitable) statistical anomolies kick in , like two 7 outs early without a payout, then this seems as fun as anything else.

Personally I could not lose $352 and try to win it back $12 at a time.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:26 PM   #6
wrxrob
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

Seems similar to the "classic regression" strategy.

http://www.dicesetter.com/craps_strategy/strat1.html

I've done this many times at a $5 table in Vegas. Play 2 units on all inside numbers ($44), then fall back to $22 after the first hit. I think at that point you only have $6 or $7 at risk, with $22 on the table working for you. Once the profits start, you can press as much as you want.
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Old 09-16-2017, 07:54 PM   #7
RoyHobbs
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fjb327 View Post
I'll start off by saying that this is in now way "a way" to beat the game. Craps is unbeatable. However, I've found this method to be a very entertaining way to play craps.

That is the best way to to approach the game of craps imo.

When you win, you can win big. And when you lose, you can lose big and slowly climb back to a reasonable lost amount before calling it quits.

There is simply no guarantee that you can climb back even if the system you are currently playing is reasonable.


This is for a minimum $10 table and is a regression method:

Wait until a point is established. Bet 40/48/48/40 on the inside numbers.

$176 will be risked. From this point on, every time the dice is rolled in this circumstance: 50% of the time you will hit an inside number get your risked money back and win $14. 33.3% of the time will be a push (non inside number but no 7). 16.6% of the time you will hit a 7 and lose $176.

You are stating theoretical percentages as opposed to actual table play and therein lies the conundrum that every dice payer faces.

Once you hit your inside number you gain $56. Take back the original money you bet ($176 + $12). Now bet $44 on the inside numbers (10/12/12/10).

From this point forward: Any number that's hit is pure profit. If the point number is hit and the come out roll is coming. Leave the bet "off." But if the come out roll shooter hits a 7, I'd turn it on (not expecting lightening to strike twice).

This method doesn't fail me much in live play and simulation. It is very rare that every time you risk the $176 that it will be wiped out by a 7. 83.3% of the time it won't be.

I guess the math would go like this:

Risk: $176 to win $12 + X * $14 (X = # of times an inside # is hit before the seven rolls)

Lose: $176 (16.6%) of the time

So out of 25 of these situations you will lose the $176 approx four to five times: $880. 50% of the time (12 or 13) you will hit your point and gain at least $12. And those 8 other times, you push and either lose or hit your numbers. So lets just say 5 out of those 8 times, you hit your point since your more likely to do so than 7 out.

Out of 25 scenarios:

18 times you hit your point. $216 + $14 * X
7 times you lose $176. $1232

There is simply no guarantee that the dice will follow those probable statistics and to believe that they will follow those stats is a gamblers fallacy.

After risking $176 and having it pay off, You'd have to hit an inside number 72 times to make it a profitable play. That averages out to about 4x each before 7out to be profitable.

Luck has a lot to do with it but it's been pretty profitable for me thus far
In theory any reasonable system can be profitable, but the dice don't care about what system you choose to play. In the short run anything can and will happen. The longer that you play the game ( I've been playing this game since 1985 ) , the sooner you will find this out. Have a stop loss amount because there is no law stating that you will be able to grind back into the plus side.Ok, lets say you have your point established with $176 inside. Next roll is 7 out and you are down - $ 176.00. Repeat this scenario two straight times and you are now down $ 528.00. The table you are at is currently trending cold and unless you walk away or start playing the Don't Pass, you are fighting an uphill battle regardless of what the probable statistics play because at this moment in time the dice are running the opposite of your system. Learning when to walk away and being at a table where the dice are rolling your system's way is the better way to have the best chance to walk away a winner.
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Old 09-17-2017, 01:08 AM   #8
Lego05
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Re: NEW CRAPS STRATEGY: Is my math right

Just interview the dice first. Make sure they are dice that respect math and agree to follow the statistics (aka theoretical percentages).

Or even better I guess, ask if they will roll your way.



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