Ran well at this game last night only betting the min $5 and playing the chart pre. Was getting tons of pps, faces, k2s, etc. Dumb Asian dealer (not racist, just stating the scene), goes I CAN'T FOLD...WHY YOU BETTING SO MUCH? and all of this other crap I couldn't understand. Of course, I wasn't playing the trips bet and she was throwing boats on the board and junk. Anyhow, left up 75 but was up over 150, not losing on the 4x hands majority of time. Then started getting 5 high so I called it quits. Annoys me all to hell when dealers are asking you to do different action when you're winning and it's YOUR money. Except in BJ, where people might need help. But seriously, I don't give two ****s if you're a poker dealer. Two completely different games and I obviously know this isn't no limit. I'm not thinking I can push you out of the pot...i'm playing math dawg.

Also, guy drinking finally throws out a 3x, after he hadn't all night...I said, "that good now?" He said, "well, I'm going for it" and only 3x's. I said you might as well 4x it to get max value...and ask what he has....2 ****ing 2!!!!!! I say "Oh no, I wouldn't 4x that one...that's the only thing I don't 4x lol." Flops bottom set zzzzzz

I was watching UTH in CA while waiting for a poker seat. The play here is the worst I've seen so far.

I can't play here because I feel like I'm already giving up enough and paying $1/hand to bet $5 seems steep.

Saw a guy bet what looked like $40 + $15 trips + $10 two-way bad beat. He gets A5s, doesn't raise, flops a 5, doesn't raise, makes a flush with running spades, and when the dealer also makes a flush (giving him everything...like 30-1 on the bad beat bet) he shakes his head and walks away because he thought he only had a pair of 5s. Dealer and a couple of players practically have to tackle him in order to pay him off.

Just curious for anyone who's better at such calculation than I:

What are the odds of losing 50, 100, and 200 units playing a game against a superstar flasher (minimum one hole card + flop card [PE 20.74%], often both hole cards + one flop card [PE > 35%]) over the course of 500 hands? Let's take it one further and assume imperfect play that cuts the edge in half.


Had a hilariously awful night against dealers showing cards. Got to be the house punching bag for a few hours and somehow win only 37 of 231 hands. Every possible fill-in straight or flush, or two-outer I could lose to I would. It was actually almost entertaining to see how awful I could run, and just wanted to know how improbable it was.

a lot higher than i bet you'd think

Condolences. Sounds like an amazing opportunity and some pretty ugly runbad.

Re: your question, it's impossible to quantify just how badly you ran partly because you didn't indicate your strategy. If you're simply 4xing all hands w equity edge vs dealers' HCs then the variance will be fairly high. In this case, losing 50 units is equivalent to losing just over 8 max bet hands net (in a 4x hand the player has 6 units at risk).

A player who mixes in a fair number of hands where he "waits to see the flop" will clearly have a much lower level of variance.

Even knowing your strat the math would not be easy and would essentially require a simulator.

I'm curious where you get your PE figures and the playing strat you used. Feel free to PM.

PE figures are originally from Grosjean, but are also published for the world to see on apheat.net The playing strategy we (the friends and I who found this game) use has been simplified as much as possible toward "the obvious choice" when applicable, and "wait and see" when not.

As condensed as possible:
--4x any player JX or better vs. dealer exposed X (i.e. player likely dominates dealer)
--4x any TX or better that will flop a pair, with exceptions where X is <9 and dealer exposed is same as non-X (basically don't 4x when you're likely to be outkicked flopping a pair)
--4x any pair 33+ unless dealer exposed pairs over (duh...)
--4x any pair that will flop a set, regardless of dealer exposed (also duh...)
--2x any flopped top pair (assuming not known before 4x action), unless kicker <9 and dealer flops same pair
--2x any strong draw unless against superior dealer (i.e. no 2x open ender vs. dealer 4-flush, no 2x 4-flush vs. open pair w/ dealer trips, etc.)
--1x any face card vs. dealer unmade based on exposed (exceptions for suited/connected boards)

Other than that, for other situations that don't seem intuitive or offer any advantage (like player T5o vs exposed 6 and no flop seen) we're just reverting to basic strategy.

As I alluded to above, I'm sure there's a lot that's being left on the table and possibly some bad decisions, but even so the outlined strategy we're using vs. the level of exposed cards we're seeing should be hugely in our favor. My terribad run was the product of losing a lot of dominating 4x bets (ex. 4x QJ vs 99 knowing board is QXX [came QQ4], another player holding K9, river is case 9), and simply finishing with literally unplayable hands like 7-high. Mercifully the majority of those 37 hands I did win were for 4x or 2x.

I figured that the calculation would be ludicrously complex, hence my attempt to get someone else to do it I also figured the probability of losing would probably be higher than my gut tells me it should be, and that playing with the strategy we use is likely to be extremely swingy...especially playing for $10 units.

How are you estimating how much that stuff adds to your edge? Basic strategy already has you 4X 38% of hands so that only leaves 62% of the time that you could even use your added information. So of that 62% how often do you make a play using known information and how much is that swinging a play from -EV to +EV?

Hole carding doesn't leave the same 38/62 breakdown. Basic strategy has you raising in situations that would be +EV versus a random hand; knowing 1/2 or 2/2 dealer hole cards no longer has you playing against a random hand, and directly affects the hands you play against it. It becomes less about a concrete raising range, and more about what you're raising against.

For example, J8s is a 55/45 favorite over a truly random hand; against all hands JX it's essentially a perfect coinflip, and no longer truly +EV to raise 4x. Against a random hand, KXs is near enough a 60/40 favorite, and a standard 4x raise; against any AX, KXs is a 60/40 underdog and heavily -EV to raise 4x.

Would you raise T4o 4x against 99? Of course not. What if you knew you'd flop a T? I'd 4x that without hesitation and cringe if I got two-outed. How would you play Q2o if you knew you'd flop a Q? Would you 4x KK if you saw AX and an A on the flop? I'll check down and fold KQs --a sucker play against a random hand-- against a hand I see has me beaten.

Starting to see how hole-carding, particularly information on the dealer's range, is potentially extremely valuable? The beauty of casino card games is that you only have to make a qualifying hand or beat the dealer, and the house has to play the same way every time. If I know what I'm going to make, or what I have to beat, it takes the majority of the difficulty out of the game.


For what it's worth, I haven't directly done the PE calculations myself, but I understand how it's done. Rather than doing it myself to verify the results, I just trust that Grosjean and Jacobson have done the math correctly. I don't do the house edge calculations for every game I sit down at either, and just trust the people who have.

Lol @ me, couldn't get a seat the other day with limited time to play, so I finally lost my CA UTH vcard. Ran hot like the sun and GTFO. 2-way bad beat not too bad when you have Jx and the dealer has 7x on JJ77.

Headed down the rabbit hole to degenville now

We got 4 tables of UTH at my local casino so during the week it's easy to get a seat. On Friday/Saturday night though you basically have to tell the dealer you want to wait for a seat and it's 3+ hours if you're not first. Game is very popular among extremely attractive young Asian women - never see them in the poker room!

Last Friday I had my first flashing dealer. I could see his hole card 80% of the time with 90% accuracy but not any flop cards. I was betting $15-$35 and I got crushed. Nothing you can do but sigh when you see his 5 so you 4X A4 and see a 5 on the flop. Or he'd have a 6 and the board would be 2288T and his other card would be a 2, 8, or T. That was how he was crushing the table - 4 to a straight on board and his flashed card is nowhere close and his other card is the straight card. I was even able to save a few hundred by not 4X'ing some hands like JT when he had an overcard or not 2X'ing when we both flopped a pair with his being bigger so I check folded.

One thing I figured out is that you don't want to show neighbors your cards if you have a flashing dealer (unless they're your buddies). I wasn't showing but thought about a hand where I couldn't 4X KJo because I saw dealers A and the flop came AJ8. I can only imagine the comments my neighbor would have made had he seen me check/fold a hand where I made 2nd pair - especially when basic strat has you as the most aggro player already. "You got a pair of jacks, why are you folding!!!!" and then dealer flips over a pair of aces...that's going to set off some "how did he know" alarm bells.

That sounds pretty crazy. At the place I played, they don't take the dealer hand out of the machine until after the last two card are revealed and all player actions are complete

Sounds like an MGM property.

Yep, this is what I've been dealing with the last couple of weeks. Sucks hard, doesn't it?

I'm starting to think it's the hero folds, not the hero calls and 4x bets, that are actually the most profitable plays...i.e. losing less = winning more.

Something interesting happened the last time I played. This place puts the board cards out first in a pile, then deals the player hands and then the dealer hand. I saw a bent card in the board cards that ended up being the 3. I thought that they would take the decks out of play, but kept playing with them.

So if the dealer has the bent card and you have J3o, would you go 4x preflop on the basis of probable domination?

Another time, a neighbor had a 3 and the flop came out 993 with the bent card still facedown. The guy was contemplating whether to go 2x or not and I was wondering how vehemently I should encourage him to play (since he was going to make a full house) but he eventually figured it out on his own (and made quad 3s lol).

I'd rather keep any knowledge that gives you an advantage and make money than potentially ruin it by saying something to a neighbor. You could encourage him with, "Oh any pair on a flop like that you gotta 2X" because that doesn't give it away.

I'd 4X J3,Q3,K3 now vs. a dealer bent 3. I'd probably use that knowledge for making folds where you might normally call 1X postflop with K2o on 44369 board but it's a fold because dealer has the 3. And I'd go 4X preflop in spots where you have a 3 in your hand and know there's a 3 coming on the board.

That'd be an awkward spot for me. On the one hand, it provides profitable opportunities, but on the other it's not at all unlikely that if the house sees you consistently winning based on it and then picks it out they'll accuse you of attempting to mark the cards.

BradleyT covered the use of it pretty well, though.

I think it would have been tough to consistently win, since the card would appear relatively infrequently (2 deck game).

In the hand in question, I was confused because the 3 might end up not playing, and then a 3 flopped, so I made the 2x bet as normal knowing the dealer also had a pair of 3s. Turned out her other card was a Q lol.

One other alteration I made was, I was dealt 33 with that deck and didn't raise preflop at all because the marked card was not one of the 5 board cards.

I should have been more clear. I didn't mean the one card would make the game itself profitable, just certain spots. It would essentially have the effect of lessening the house edge, because you'd be drawing with perfect information to any hand that needs a 3 to complete.

Yeah, I didn't take it that knowledge of one card would effectively change anything except in very specific situations. I wonder if they left the deck in play so long because it was a 3 (like if it was an A would they have changed the deck out sooner?)

This was all at Graton, BTW. I played midweek, and they switch from 5 to 10 pretty early in the day. They use the 3.5% Trips table, the 20.4% 2-way bad beat table, AND have a shared progressive with the other carnival games. Everybody's betting area ends up looking like a roulette layout

Well, the past month I think I've come to understand how RC felt getting tabled by a front-loader. I'm running beyond bad, down 460 units against dealers who are 100%; it's ludicrous.

None of my advantage games are working out at the moment (even edge sorting is pissing on me), so I'm stepping away for a couple months. Hopefully it'll clear my head and change my luck.

Until then, best of luck everyone!

There are ton of opportunities on this one as it's not as policed as MS stud. A lot of stores have moved to the yellow card on that game. Oddly enough some of the flashers I have played are careful with the flop but not the hole cards. I don't know how marginal of a game that really is, I have heard it's around a 10% edge but no dealer is 100% and I'm not the best spotter although ace/paint/low captures a lot of the EV in this game. I think the setup of this game leads to flashing especially at those hilarious stores where the discard tray is in front of the shuffler. Unfortunately the game is popular where I play and it is difficult to get the needed seat position.

The tough thing about this game is that you show down pretty often so your strategy "variations" tend to stand out. For example often I will raise Q4o knowing dealer has j or less and then at same table I will check KQ against an ace. Playing drunk is a good choice here as the game is super easy but a lot of times I go to the casino looking to play more difficult games.

Is that even correct? K4o isn't a 4X raise but it's a higher win hand.
Q4o vs. 5* is 52.1% favorite.
Q4o vs. J* is 51.4% favorite.

K4o vs. ** is 52.3% favorite but not a raise.

Last few times I've gone to play poker, I saw the same guy playing UTH out of a decent-sized stash of 100s. Betting pretty big, catches some big hands, then gets hit with the swings. I hope he hits a royal soon, kind of uncomfortable to watch. Doesn't really seem to be enjoying himself.

Yeah, this game has absolutely brutal swings. Even with perfect knowledge of the dealer and the board, the dealer can't fold and you're still facing the very real possibility of just running bad.

Was playing at an Indian casino where the machine twice spit out a straight as the board cards and the dealer paid everyone's bad beat bet. Later a different dealer was struggling with a two-pair hand and with a supervisor watching, treated three losing hands as pushes.

On a side note, I'll never be an AP because if a dealer makes a mistake in my favor and it only affects me, I'll tell them the first time it happens...after that, I figure it's a training issue, or they're incompetent. I won't say anything if it affects even one other player though.

Dropped in to M8trix today to check out how this game is spread there. Worst rules evar (so of course I tripled up). 2WBB can be bet for $1, but Trips must be bet in increments of 5. The flush only pays 6-5 on the Blind bet and they charge $2/hand. One of the players mentioned that they dealt a dream board last week (quads on the board).

ETA: 2WBB is pretty genius because not only does it have a huge HE (based on discountgambling.net) but it forces the player to call on a board on the end where they might otherwise surrender.