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-   -   The Michigan Lottery +EV thread (https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/31/other-gambling-games/michigan-lottery-ev-thread-1077911/)

__w__ 09-07-2011 10:53 AM

Both the big dogs are still on play just fyi

THAKID 09-07-2011 04:02 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Just seems like it's to easy for them to be doing something sketchy

msufan 09-07-2011 06:55 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by __w__ (Post 28585325)
Both the big dogs are still on play just fyi

the prizes being claimed have slowed to barely a trickle

cswolf 09-10-2011 06:29 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
lol, msufan I stumbled on your thread at that msu forum. It was almost soul-destroying how stupid people are. I don't even know why you'd respond to them.

msufan 09-10-2011 10:58 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cswolf (Post 28648183)
lol, msufan I stumbled on your thread at that msu forum. It was almost soul-destroying how stupid people are. I don't even know why you'd respond to them.

:D:D:D

Michael Davis 09-15-2011 02:19 AM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
I know this has been said already, but even though the other games have paid out their top prizes does not mean a giant payout is not by far the most likely to be withheld for a certain period of time. So you can't just assume there's a fair chance that it's still there.

Ben12345 09-18-2011 02:47 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
A +EV lottery, yea ok.

msufan 09-18-2011 03:17 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cswolf (Post 28648183)
lol, msufan I stumbled on your thread at that msu forum. It was almost soul-destroying how stupid people are. I don't even know why you'd respond to them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben12345 (Post 28783587)
A +EV lottery, yea ok.

:D:D:D:D:D:D

cswolf 09-26-2011 04:42 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
I threw together a quick spreadsheet and been checking this every week or so and it seems like the classic black was just a fluke. But I do know that for whatever reason a lot of those tickets were sent back because they weren't selling that well in stores.

SheetWise 09-27-2011 02:24 AM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cswolf (Post 28940175)
I threw together a quick spreadsheet and been checking this every week or so and it seems like the classic black was just a fluke. But I do know that for whatever reason a lot of those tickets were sent back because they weren't selling that well in stores.

Interest has faded in this possible advantage play -- but I still find it interesting, and thank you for the update. If you continue to monitor the game, I look forward to your findings -- please post. State lottery games are a bit of a hobby to me. They're so badly regulated and run that they should be criminal per se -- and are vulnerable on those premises alone. All information helps. Thanks.

P.S. Please don't confuse this post with some of my previous posts which were based upon the assumption that what was contracted was actually delivered.

Fubster 02-14-2012 04:16 AM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
where exactly are you finding number of tickets left? are we going by the probability of winning according to the site? any word on how accurate that number is?

Fubster 02-14-2012 04:17 AM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
i'm teaching myself to program and i figured i'd use this as an exercise. if anyone wants to help, i'd appreciate it.

oh and sheets, i just realized i never responded to your PMs about ACism. sorry, i've been ridiculously busy lately. you'd be proud, though!

BK1248 02-14-2012 04:32 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
So there are still 2 500k tickets for classic black?

Interesting thread

cswolf 02-14-2012 05:51 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
I don't feel like digging up the link again but yeah when I looked at this I just looked at their "chance of winning" number which was like 2.74 times by amount of prizes or whatever.

__w__ 02-14-2012 09:40 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BK1248 (Post 31537810)
So there are still 2 500k tickets for classic black?

Interesting thread

I'm not gonna look at the sheet, but just fyi classic black should have been pulled from the shelves by now, regardless of whether the winners have been turned in or not.

SheetWise 02-14-2012 10:42 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Where exactly are you finding number of tickets left?
This is information that has the shelf life of fish -- and often comes in several months old.

Quote:

oh and sheets, i just realized i never responded to your PMs about ACism. sorry, i've been ridiculously busy lately. you'd be proud, though!
No worry -- the truth will prevail ;)

jmark 02-15-2012 01:05 AM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fubster (Post 31528585)
i'm teaching myself to program and i figured i'd use this as an exercise. if anyone wants to help, i'd appreciate it.

oh and sheets, i just realized i never responded to your PMs about ACism. sorry, i've been ridiculously busy lately. you'd be proud, though!

What language? We have a number of programmers that can help out I'd think.

RollWave 02-15-2012 03:18 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fubster (Post 31528574)
where exactly are you finding number of tickets left?

http://milottery.state.mi.us/msl-ig-trigps.php

(found by googling "michigan lottery remaining" which autocompleted to "michigan lottery remaining prizes")

Fubster 02-15-2012 03:24 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
C++

SheetWise 02-15-2012 06:58 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fubster (Post 31556535)
C++

A proprietary version of a language that was designed to be cross platform -- like writing in asp or aspx (ugly). Invest your in open source languages -- they evolve faster and have better support. You'll never regret it (unless you're looking for a job).

Fubster 02-15-2012 08:35 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
are you thinking of C#? C++ isn't proprietary and it's cross-platform.

I know a bit of python, but that doesn't really help with stuff like simulating games etc.

SheetWise 02-15-2012 09:10 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fubster (Post 31562533)
are you thinking of C#? C++ isn't proprietary and it's cross-platform.

I know a bit of python, but that doesn't really help with stuff like simulating games etc.

C++ is cross platform? I gave up on it 20 years ago because it was a proprietary variant of C -- same reason I gave up all dot-net crap.

Are you saying they made all their libraries open?

May be true -- but once bit, twice shy.

Neil S 02-16-2012 03:35 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
C++ was invented at Bell Labs by Bjarne Stroustrup as C with Classes and became C++ in the early 80s. It was never a proprietary thing.

C# yes. Java... sometimes. C++ no.

SheetWise 02-16-2012 05:07 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil S (Post 31577239)
C++ was invented at Bell Labs by Bjarne Stroustrup as C with Classes and became C++ in the early 80s. It was never a proprietary thing.

C# yes. Java... sometimes. C++ no.

Thanks -- just read a bit more. I stuck with Microsoft products for too many years, and started moving away from them about 20 years ago. The "version" of Microsoft C++ I first played with was definitely not "portable" -- and I didn't want to invest any more time in "Microsoft specific" solutions. I've worked with it off and on -- think I need to revisit it. Do you have a favorite GUI?

Fubster 02-16-2012 05:36 PM

Re: The Michigan Lottery +EV thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SheetWise (Post 31563203)
C++ is cross platform? I gave up on it 20 years ago because it was a proprietary variant of C -- same reason I gave up all dot-net crap.

Are you saying they made all their libraries open?

May be true -- but once bit, twice shy.

Yeah, you're thinking of C#, which (I think?) is part of the .NET framework. I don't want anything to do with that, either.


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