I've recently found a decent game near me and am trying to calculate what I should expect for variance, expected $$/hr, and risk of ruin based on various bankroll sizes.

Does anyone know of a good place online to be able to calculate this, or at least could explain to me the nuts and bolts of calculating it for myself?

I'm not asking anyone to do it for me, but perhaps if I give the info about the game and you show me how to figure it out on here, I'll be able to do it for myself in the future.

$25 min double deck
Pretty good penetration, I'd estimate that dealers deal down to ~20 cards
Dealers usually deal pretty quickly, so ~ 100 hands/hr (let's just say 100 hands/hr for the sake of calculations)

DAS
Dealer hits soft 17
No surrender
Resplit up to 4 hands
No resplitting aces

Using basic hi/lo with illustrious 18
Spreading 1-6, but I think in the future I could get away with 1-8 or even 1-10.

you need to use a blackjack simulator, such as CVCX. also for double deck i prefer to use an ace side count with hi lo.

I also had the same question. Luckily found it here.
Thank you PokerPlayingGamble for the good advice!

1. Definitely just use a calculator. I'm surprised CVCX is still top of the line but it's good.

2. Variance depends quite a bit not just on the nominal spread (1-6, 1-8, etc) but also how fast you ramp up. Most of the hands you see will be at non-max bets and betting 1 unit vs 2 units at TC +1 may make more difference variancewise than 8 vs 10 at TC +5.

3. The basic rule of variance is that you're calculating the difference between your actual results and your average results. So for every possible outcome (and this is where a computer comes in handy), calculate how much you win, subtract your EV, square it, and multiply it by the probability you see that outcome. Add it all up and that's your variance.

For a coin flip, half the time you get +1, half the time you get -1.

EV = 0.5*(+1) + 0.5*(-1)
V = 0.5*(+1-EV)^2 + 0.5*(-1-EV)^2

--- unsolicited advice below ---

4. 1-8 us high for a double deck game. Consider longevity.

5. Switching basic strategy repeatedly is an easy way to get caught. Consider making the intentional mistake at low counts / small bets. For example, consider always standing hard 16 v dealer T (if you can't surrender), which will be a mistake at negative counts but then won't seem suspicious when you do it at high counts / big bets.

Normally I do spread 1-6. I was specifying that at this game, it seemed like I could get away with a 1-8, since the standard at the table with other players was for them to change up their bets pretty regularly. The table had a fun, loose vibe. This was my first time at this casino though, so I couldn't tell you if the casino is like that overall.

As far as varying from basic strategy, It has always been my impression that changing it up is actually a sign of an amateur player, since they go more by hunch from hand to hand. Sometime they'll stand on a bad hand, sometimes they'll hit. That's what is so great about 16 vs 10 is that you'll be hitting it half the time and standing half the time. I understand what you're saying though about how there could be something suspicious about standing on hard 16s only when a big bet is out and I love that idea of just always standing on hard 16. But for the most part, if one plays the part of a hunch player really "stuggling" with decisions, it should gain some leeway for plays that are semi-unusual but not suspiciously so.

Obviously, something like splitting tens vs a 6 I'm almost never doing unless I'm super hammered anyway.

I also recommend Casino Verite. It's a little pricy, but it will pay for itself if you play blackjack much at all.

You could get a pretty accurate approximation by hand, but I don't feel like getting into it and it would be a PITA to figure out the new figures for every slight adjustment you're considering in your strategy.

That is bad advice. Betting cover can be reasonable, but playing cover is not recommended. Casino staff generally can't tell a good play from a bad play anyway, and if someone knows what they are doing is hawking your game then a random misplay is not going to throw them off anyway.

The gain in expected value from splitting tens can get quite high, especially in higher true counts (+8 and above). It is definitely worthwhile, but the best approach is to wait until you are a few counts above the index. Right at the index the gain in the EV doesn't justify the additional variance and risk, but eventually, as the count gets higher you really must split.

True, but it's obvious when an amateur does it because they change strategy entries that are not close. Like they waffle doubling hard 9 vs dealer 4 or standing on soft 17.

When you're using Hi-Lo (which is the most common system for surveillance to know) and you're consistently making the same changes in the same direction, it's very easy to tell.

If everyone only got to play at a casino once and only got banned or not, I would agree with you.

The problem with longevity is that suspicions can grow over time, and even short sessions from which nothing conclusive can be drawn immediately can be strung together if they have reason to put it together.

You are correct that any cover play will cost you money. But depending on how often you play and how sweaty the casino is, this can buy you longevity.

Look at it this way: if you don't split tens v d6 at high counts, you leave money on the table. Yet many successful counters I know avoid it because it's so suspicious that the cons outweigh the pros.

Casino staff can't differentiate between a good play and a bad play, so all you are doing is costing yourself no money for no discernable benefit. And if an expert blackjack player is hawking your game, then making a few small mistakes won't help you avoid being discovered.

That was probably true 30 years ago, and has gotten less and less true over the years. When blackjack books were handwritten copies passed around hand to hand, this stuff was a secret. Then people started publishing. Now there's the Internet. Soon, they'll just use card recognition and plug it into a computer which will calculate the probability you're not counting vs using HiLo vs using KO, and when the computer reaches 95% confidence it will 86 you by drone.

And unlike 30 years ago when 100 companies owned 200 casinos around the country and people passed around a little black book with grainy Polaroids of suspected counters, now there are gigapixel computer-enhanced pictures stored forever on a server farm in the desert, attached to the past five years of play history so if in the future their AI identifies you as using a custom unbalanced count with a pivot of +3 and a side count of aces, they can go back and recalculate all their past assumptions about you.

Think of it this way: how long did it take you to learn how to count? If you were a casino employee with ambition to be promoted, what stops you from doing the same?

So if casinos are all filled with master counters, as you claim, then how is doubling A6 v 7 or whatever cover play you want to make going to fool them? They are only going to hawk your game for that one hand and then ignore the fact that your bets are rising with the count and then you are constantly making index plays? There is just no scenario where playing cover is advised. Betting cover on the other hand is a reasonable way to ensure your longevity in a good game.

Is A6d7 part of the I18 at a low positive count, or are you just constructing strawmen because you don't read very well?