Quote:
Originally Posted by zioxcult
1. The big bankroll players taking advantage of the little guys....... It seems like anyone buying tickets before the winfall is making a bad bet, and anyone buying during the winfall is making a good bet. Why does bankroll size matter? The little guys buying during the winfall have an edge that week too. And when the large bankrollers force the winfall earlier than expected, then those little players dumb enough to buy tickets in the non-winfall part got a benefit too that week
I think he meant that the little guy buys tickets day in and day out, not fully aware that most of the time it's -ev and only some of the time it's +ev, so overall they are subsidizing the big bankroll players who are smart enough to only buy when it's +ev.
Quote:
2. That the state is benefitting from all the extra tickets bought......It doesn't add up that the state is getting 30 cents, the retailer gets a cut for selling, and the player is getting more value than they paid for the ticket during the winfall. It just doesn't add up. Why isn't the state losing money during the winfall?
I believe that the state IS actually losing money during the winfall, but that loss comes from accumulated profit from non-winfall days. Kinda like a badbeat jackpot. So over a full year the state still makes money.
Basically the state runs a jackpot that is, say, 40% return for 5 times, then a jackpot that is 110% return once. And during the +ev jackpot the total sales is only double a normal -ev jackpot. Rinse and repeat.