the drawing on wednesday should be around 21% roi, 2nd highest all time for this particular lottery.

proper full kelly bankroll is around 23mill... if you don't have at least that much it's for sure not a good long-term gamble. probably should have closer to 100m. if you can split action at least 23 ways or convince someone else to take 96% of the risk this would be a good gamble with a 1 mill bankroll.

canadians do not have to pay income tax on gambling winnings but if you are a US citizen you would still have to. if you have close to the proper bankroll you might already be in the highest income bracket already which would lower the bankroll requirements by around 40% because the government is effectively taking part of the risk for you.

he gets no slack because he is trying to sell people on his lottery pool. In his first thread he went on for a long time then all of a sudden he mentioned that you could join his pool.

So scary!

This. It was transparent from the start. As soon as a big jackpot was coming, boom.

So if you're going to try to sell your pool, the burden is on you to demonstrate you're a winner.

Lol at kelly request, it's a lottery, the prize is focused on the jackpot.

Would be interested to see the EV calculation though.

You know what, get scammed. I hope you do. Get fooled by all his fake math. I welcome it. Send him your money.

Neil, you are obsessed with this pool idea. I only pitched it once and then never again once the thread was deleted and I was told there is an unwritten rule against pools.

But then, one does not get over 15,000 posts without having a few obsessions.

Good luck.

I was hardly saying that, the math is pretty simple for anyone to do, I'm not gonna sign up for some pool.

All I was saying is Kelly is meaningless due to the low jackpot probability and the high prize, any strategy that doesn't involve buying all the tickets is going to carry a decent amount of risk of ruin as you need to win the jackpot to make a profit.

I know nothing about said lottery by the way, this is based on general lottery rules.

It's like Video Poker when people emphasise how x strategy or y machine adds 0.5% to EV. Fair enough I like to max EV, but the Royal Flush is around 3% of the EV. That shows how high the variance is.

A new record expected value of 124% was set in yesterday's draw. The expected value was a direct result of the large jackpot and relatively low sales. For example, the draw with the largest ever jackpot had an expected value of only 72% because sales were so high.

Good luck.

I taunt but this does raise a serious question: Of what use is knowing the EV at drawing time of a lottery ticket?

You don't know when you buy the ticket how many people will buy tickets. So what's the actual EV of that ticket?

I find it hard to believe that is a serious question. You have a choice of playing one of two games. One has an expected value of 50% and one has an expected value of 100%. You are asking what is the value of that information? Really!

Expected Value: I do not think it means what you think it means.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

So now you understand why retrospective analyses of the EV of a particular drawing, aren't relevant to the decision on whether to play beforehand?

Seriously? He said what's the use of knowing the EV afterwards. You just said its not necessarily based on the jackpot.

Also how do you calcukate EV. The ev of all tickets isnt the same

That's another point. Because of the people who play dates and other low numbers, the EV of a random ticket is probably slightly higher.

But yeah, what you really need is a historical record of 'turnout' by day of week, day of year, previous jackpot, and estimated current jackpot. Then see how the trends go, and create a model for forward-looking EV based on the data. And see how the model holds up.

In your quest to continuously criticize my posts, you fail to actually read them or, at the least, understand them.

Right from the first post, I was promoting a certain game for a certain date because of the future expected value and not the past. I was not playing a game that had already occurred.

The only thing that occurred after the draw was the precise calculation of the expected value.

Good luck.

if you are just trying to figure out how many tickets are going to be sold - the lottery already does this for you.

The announced jackpots are actually "expected jackpot" totals taking into account the number of tickets they expect to sell, based on factors including those you listed. If their estimate is bad, the jackpot total is updated.

Yeah but estimated jackpot alone doesn't correlate with EV. If the number of tickets bought total that feed into the current jackpot are too heavily weighted toward this drawing, then that diminishes the total EV, per the stats OP is providing anyway.

So you can't just look at the number on the ads and use that to know when to buy. At least, if you're using EV as your determination of when to buy, as OP is suggesting.

The jackpot alone won't, but the difference from the last drawing should tell you the # of people expected to buy tickets.

For the games I play, I track sales and can predict fairly accurately sales for an upcoming draw and the expected value. It was these types of statistics I was reporting in my first and second thread (the threads that were deleted). One moderator told me the reason the second thread was deleted was because I was posting too much data. I guess the hard drive was filling up.

The estimated jackpots as advertised by the lottery companies are not always an accurate indication of projected sales. The jackpots are sometimes set to a higher level than supported by sales as a marketing ploy to boost the popularity of a game.

Good luck.

But unless you only buy the ticket just before closing time, *and* the estimate is updated at that time, then you don't know what the final difference is going to be.

With the big Lotto 649 jackpot won, back to playing the other big Canadian lottery, Lotto Max.

With Lotto Max, the payout is mainly affected by the jackpot and odds. Sales are rarely big enough to have a significant effect on the payout.

The payout for this game is never really that great mainly because of the long odds (1 in 28 million) and the price of a ticket ($5).

The payout for the next draw will be above average and therefore still worth playing.

Good luck.

I just had to go read your Omaha hand post to see this.

I can inform you that nearly everybody in that thread was joking. The reason is that you posted what basically looked like a bad beat/cooler post rather than a serious strategy post. The reason for this is that you flopped top full house, which was the second nuts on the turn to only quads, and you bet pot on the flop and then bet pot on the turn and then called an all-in raise and in the thread you were asking if you could have done anything else (or as you put it "was there any other reasonable option in this situation"). It is so plainly obvious that you should not fold to the all-in and is so plainly obvious that you should be happy to get all-in (and I don't even play Omaha). Furthermore, you posted this incredibly simple hand in the High Stakes Forum. In lower stake strategy forums or the Beginner's Forum, maybe people would have taken it a bit more seriously and not posted obviously awful ways of playing the hand as jokes. But at high stakes it is certainly assumed that everyone would know that you would want to get all-in in that situation.

And also, a few people in the thread did explain what I explained in the above paragraph (though not nearly as specifically) and gave real advice (particularly Wazz) and at least one of the people giving fake advice as a joke apologized to you in the thread for doing so.


Unfortunate that you picked that particular hand and that particular forum for your first poker strategy post here and that it unfurled in that manner.