Found a new (well, new to me) BJ side bet in Vegas this past weekend that is obviously exploitable, but I need help figuring out the count. I've researched the webz for info and can't find any.


The side bet is a variation on the dealer bust side bet. With this one, the dealer will only offer it to you after exposing his upcard, and only if it's a 2-6. The bet is for even money is he busts. That's it. No various payouts based on number of cards to bust or anything like that.

So it would seem that since the dealer's odds of busting are higher when the count is higher (IF the dealer is showing a 2-6) then we just need to know the true count threshold for when a dealer busts over 50% of the time on each of the 2-6 cards. I have to assume that someone somewhere has already calculated this. Anyone know what the counts are for this offhand, or know where I could get the information?

https://blackjacktheforum.com/entry....unt-and-Upcard

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...590#post198590

Thank you. I'm pretty shocked by those figures. It's very surprising to me that the count has to be really high before crossing the 50% bust rate threshold. Even a 6, which busts 44% of the time at TC=0, doesn't get to over 50% bust rate until TC=9. That's nuts. I guess it's not really exploitable. Oh well.

A custom count should be used to know for sure. HiLo counts aces as high, and the dealer is much less likely to bust soft hands. I would think cards like 9s which are neutral would significantly contribute to the bust rate, as well. HiLo correlates pretty well with bust rate, but not perfectly.

Also, even if it's not vulnerable to straight counting, it could be vulnerable to other methods. The edge for a hole-carder could be huge, I think. if you know the dealer has hard 16 the chances of busting are about 62% out of a fresh shoe. I've never seen a dealer flash at blackjack, except in a pitch game, but I figure it's worth mentioning.

Excellent point. If someone were to really want to exploit this side bet, a counting system of tens and nines would be much more effective. I'd actually be interested to see if someone has run simulations on how different card removals effect bust rate. I'm sure someone has.

Obviously, hole carding would give someone a yuuge edge for this side bet.

I'll calc the best "simple" count for this bet. 6 decks, H17?

Also, what is the bet limit?

waste of time, high low already correlates quite well to this side bet. it's not beatable end of story.

Not sure how you can possibly know that it would be unbeatable using a different system that accounts more for nines instead of aces.

Not sure about bet limit, but I played it at a DD on the strip, not 6 deck.

The frequency at which dealer bust probability is > .5 is low that this alone is not worth focusing on. If you're hole carding, you're already doing well. This is a nice bonus if you know the dealer has a hard 14, 15, or 16. Thanks for posting this, OP.

I was going to run a sim in CVData, but I can't figure out how very easily, so I'm giving up.

The most important thing is the penetration. Do you know this, OP?

It was double deck, cut down to 1/2- 2/3 deck.

My intuition is telling me that if a count was used that incorporated nines but not aces, there would be more than a few opportunities for the times the dealer has a 5 or 6 showing.

Sorry for not getting to this sooner, working on another project.

For the bust on 6 bet, my first guess [2,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,-4,-1] gets about 70% of the available EV. True count index is +1.

I'm sure there are better counts, I'm guessing in the 80-85% range of available EV. I'll find a good unbalanced count with a constant index for 2-deck and 8-deck.

I've decided to not put this info into the public domain. I'm fairly certain a number of APs would not appreciate this getting out.

I do appreciate guys like Anthony Curtis doing the good work for us: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/ques...ust-blackjack/

You know his info is bogus when he relies on S17 single deck info from 40 years ago.