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Old 03-03-2021, 07:56 PM   #26
PokerHero77
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Re: card counting AMA

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave! View Post
Risk of ruin? Yes Kelly I know. Blackjack Attack a good source. And has been mentioned the CV software provide good tools.
Blackjack Attack never produces a theoretical result of bet size using expected growth. He only glosses over the kelly considerations.

And in his charts he has a column for "Risk of Ruin", which when betting true kelly fractions is impossible and demonstrates a general ignorance of maximizing expected growth.

*-technically it is not impossible to bust a bankroll in blackjack as -EV bets are made to occupy a seat, but this is not the reason people consider RoR an important consideration.
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Old 03-04-2021, 04:48 AM   #27
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Re: card counting AMA

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-technically it is not impossible to bust a bankroll in blackjack as -EV bets are made to occupy a seat,

The waiting bets are pretty much irrelevant, aren't they? They will generate a small amount of expected loss, but I don't see how they would have a tangible impact on ROR unless you are using a tiny spread. ROR numbers for a given bet spread assume no resizing. Even if you are resizing, they're still a valid consideration when comparing different bet spreads and different counting opportunities. What else are you going to do? Consider only hourly rate? It's still worthwhile to minimize ROR (within reason) for a given bet schedule, even if you do plan on resizing.

And it is still possible to bust a bankroll with constant resizing and no waiting bets simply because of the table minimum (or more realistically a desired hourly goal). Even more so when you factor in expenses, as in the case of a full time professional, where even an extended break even stretch would eventually break you.
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Old 03-05-2021, 04:13 AM   #28
PokerHero77
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Re: card counting AMA

Right, you won't bust your bankroll but you won't be able to make the minimum bet. Which is not the same as ruin, but requires a stepdown to a lower limit.

Any time you have -EV expenses when kelly staking, such as minimum bets to occupy a seat, parking fees, tips, etc., you will have some risk of a depleted bankroll no longer capable of supporting bets. This applies to ANY size bankroll, but of course the risk lessens as the bankroll size grows in relation to the fixed expenses.

In theory the best way to measure a playing program is by expected growth. To do that one needs to know expected growth per hand. To do that one needs to know the proper kelly fraction to wager on +count hands to achieve optimal expected growth. The best I've seen anyone try to estimate the proper kelly fraction is through variance calcs, but this will not yield a precise answer.

Once one has an estimate for expected growth, and a distribution of +counts, then one can calculate an expected return based on external factors, such as hands per hour, expenses, time spent, etc.
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Old 03-10-2021, 05:08 AM   #29
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Re: card counting AMA

What is the minumum bankroll you would recommend starting with?

Did you play shoes, or singledeck and if so did the SD pay 3 to 2 or 6 to 5?

Did you use deviations or stick with basic strategy?

How many hours a day would you play?

Did you get backed off at any casinos?

Would you play one hand when a negative shoe and then switch to 2 when positive and if so at would point would you switch to 2?

Txs in advance
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Old 03-10-2021, 05:49 AM   #30
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Re: card counting AMA

I realize I'm not oP but as he's been inactive for the last 7 months or so.

Quote:
What is the minumum bankroll you would recommend starting with?

For a rank beginner almost any amount is enough, although you should spend 100 hours at home practicing with a six deck shoe and discard tray before hitting the casino. This is because at this stage just getting some experience is worthwhile, even if your hourly is negligible.


"Did you play shoes, or singledeck and if so did the SD pay 3 to 2 or 6 to 5?"

I will play either shoes or pitch. Generally 6:5 is not worthwhile although it is beatable apparently with a large enough spread (single deck only).

"Did you use deviations or stick with basic strategy?"

I use about 50-60 but the top 20 or so encapsulate 80% of the gain from index plays.

"
How many hours a day would you play?"

lots.

"Did you get backed off at any casinos?"

lots, but mostly at the start of my career.

"Would you play one hand when a negative shoe and then switch to 2 when positive and if so at would point would you switch to 2?"

Always two, as some have claimed that switching to multiple hands in high count is a tell. I'll drop to one in extremely negative counts.

Txs in advance
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Old 03-10-2021, 09:33 PM   #31
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Re: card counting AMA

almost any amount is enough?

lol wat
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Old 03-11-2021, 02:51 AM   #32
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Re: card counting AMA

and another person gets added to my ignore list
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Old 05-20-2021, 05:59 AM   #33
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Re: card counting AMA

I think my cover idea is to use some super inexpensive makeup to look dirty and put on some boots and a construction company shirt. Order a Coors Light when the opportunity arises. I look too much the part of a knowledgeable gambler. Any tips for blending in like a ploppy--moreover, a ploppy who can sit and play for a couple hours?
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Old 05-20-2021, 06:14 AM   #34
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Re: card counting AMA

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I think my cover idea is to use some super inexpensive makeup to look dirty and put on some boots and a construction company shirt. Order a Coors Light when the opportunity arises. I look too much the part of a knowledgeable gambler. Any tips for blending in like a ploppy--moreover, a ploppy who can sit and play for a couple hours?
i think this is a bad idea because you'd be needed to wager a significant amount to make the edges work - i'm guessing someone who's visibly dirty playing for large amounts would attract far more attention than anyone else

you could go for the trustafarian look, wear a bunch linen clothing and let your hair and beard grow out and ask for organic/vegan options - some of the wealthiest people in the world dress this way and you wouldn't be expecting them to be card counting but wouldn't bat an eye on them having big rolls
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Old 05-20-2021, 09:18 PM   #35
PokerHero77
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Re: card counting AMA

Just keep buying chips and get good at pocketing a few every 5 minutes.
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Old 05-22-2021, 11:41 PM   #36
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Re: card counting AMA

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Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
I realize I'm not oP but as he's been inactive for the last 7 months or so.
What's the point in traditional counting these days? It must be hard to find decent games and when you do then the pit crews will likely be knowledgeable, or at least be able to refer to someone thats knowledgeable.

Have you historically made more money from traditional +- counts and spreading bet sizes or from lesser known plays like shuffle tracking and cutting slugs of aces to the front?

Did you play any of the other well known live casino advantage plays over the years like 3 card poker holecarding or Big 6 or edge sorting? (Not limiting to them just providing as a starter).

I have a copy of Beyond Counting by James Grosjean that I bought directly from him (it took him 3 months to send me it) decades ago. Is it really worth $1000 or is that bs?

I was an average card counter 20 years ago who had a smidgen in EV. I could have got better and raised my expected hourly but instead I dropped it and focused on online poker and online casinos. I am 100% I made the right choice.
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Old 05-22-2021, 11:48 PM   #37
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Re: card counting AMA

I got backed off at El Cortez about 3 weeks ago. I didnt even take them for 1k. They have the best rules you will find anywhere, SD pays 3 to 2, DAS, Double on any 2.

Pretty funny, the pit lady told me I can play any other game other than blackjack. The day they backed me off I wasnt even ahead I was down 170 loooooooooooooooooool
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Old 05-24-2021, 10:47 PM   #38
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Re: card counting AMA

I may be biting into a troll, but $1k at the El Cortez is like $85k at the Bellagio. You will get backed off spreading $5-$25 after just a few minutes at El Cortez. Every counter in the USA knows about the sweatiness of El Cortez.

As for the construction guy look, a lot of guys have projects where they have to bust their asses from sunrise to sunset, 9 days in a row and make a couple thousand+. Seems like a good persona to take on explaining where the $ and desire to gamble comes from. And also (sadly) your character is of a laborer, not someone who can do that threatening 4th grade math casinos hate so much.

P.S. I'm not saying you have to be particularly dirty. Just wearing a bright yellow shirt that says Bob's Roofing seems like a good idea.
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Old 05-25-2021, 02:42 PM   #39
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Re: card counting AMA

Not sure what you mean by biting into a troll. Its exactly as I stated.
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Old 05-26-2021, 03:14 AM   #40
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Re: card counting AMA

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Originally Posted by tbab returns sober View Post
I got backed off at El Cortez about 3 weeks ago. I didnt even take them for 1k. They have the best rules you will find anywhere, SD pays 3 to 2, DAS, Double on any 2.

Pretty funny, the pit lady told me I can play any other game other than blackjack. The day they backed me off I wasnt even ahead I was down 170 loooooooooooooooooool
What kind of spread were you using? I would think even a 1-3 spread would be enough to beat it.
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Old 05-26-2021, 03:51 AM   #41
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Re: card counting AMA

15 and then switched to 2 spots 75-75 max I think. Place is a ****in joke

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Old 05-26-2021, 03:16 PM   #42
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Re: card counting AMA

Were you in a corner seat?
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Old 05-26-2021, 05:43 PM   #43
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Re: card counting AMA

Always 3rd base yes

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Old 05-27-2021, 10:30 AM   #44
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Re: card counting AMA

What I mean by troll is any counter who has played in Vegas or just been a member of an online AP community knows that the El Cortez is the sweatiest place in the USA (with the best game to play). You will get backed off spreading $5-$20, and yes that spread is enough to beat it, not to mention comp dollars--and though it has been a few years for me, the steakhouse is pretty good. So, what you describe is getting away with murder.

I have heard that betting handfuls of green might buy a counter a little more time because they are so fixed on busting low-rolling novice counters. Also, they do seem to understand that they don't want to upset the big action. When the whole place is betting $5 or $10, they at least try to be nice to anyone betting $200. As long as you don't start shuffles with $25 min bets, you might be able to go from $200-$500 longer than you can go from $5-$15, and you can occasionally drop down in negative counts. I'd be more concerned about drawing attention from casino patrons than employees at that point.

Separate note, anyone remember "Jay" or "Jaybird" who was an El Cortez reg? Would sit at the bar closest to the pit, every once in a while put $5 in the bartop machine to play video Keno. What was his story? Was he just a drunk or some sort of muscle or informant for the casino?
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Old 05-27-2021, 11:52 AM   #45
Tom Ames
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Re: card counting AMA

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Originally Posted by tbab returns sober View Post
Always 3rd base yes
That alone should send you back to Square One.
Do not pass Go! Do not collect $200.
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Old 05-27-2021, 12:18 PM   #46
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Re: card counting AMA

thatís his lucky seat tho
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Old 05-27-2021, 01:29 PM   #47
Tom Ames
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Re: card counting AMA

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thatís his lucky seat tho
Imagine the results if he sat in an unlucky seat.
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