Hey everyone, so the site I play poker on doesn’t have rakeback, just tournament vouchers or ‘casino bonus funds’. I clicked ‘redeem bonus’ and didn’t know until after that I couldn’t withdraw the cash until I played 10x the amount in their casino. Anyways, I turned $400 into $2k being an idiot in roulette, and then switched to blackjack. From there I tried to meet the play through requirement. Here is my question:

What is the risk of ruin for a $2k bankroll, playing 3 hands at once at $25 each (so $75 per deal), sometimes doubling down, following basic strategy perfectly? I lost all of it in less than an hr and basically want to find comfort in the loss likely being the result of my strategy rather than the site being shady, bc I want to continue playing poker there without worrying about this.


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Assuming for each deal mean of -$1 and std deviation of $100, I calculate you will lose at least $2k:

-50 deals - 0.3%
-100 deals - 2.9%
-150 deals - 6.6%

With std deviation of $75:
-50 deals - 0.01%
-100 deals - 0.6%
-150 deals - 2.2%

Playing 3 hands at once with a 2k bankroll and not using any kind of advantage betting your risk or ruin is astronomical.