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Old 09-10-2020, 10:12 PM   #1
MonkeyMonkey
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Join Date: Jun 2015
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Blackjack Odds

I have a newbie and kinda laughable question.

I have 20K I am willing to risk in real life and I want to play a 2 deck blackjack game, BJ pays 3:2 and dealer hits on soft 17 with $100 minimum / $5000 MAX. I start with playing 2 hands at $500 a hand and press every winning bet (so I win $500 and I play $1000 and so on). What are my odds of doubling my money during 1 shoe?

I am willing to take a gamble on this roll and I want to know what are my best odds of doing it and stopping.

I know this isn't the same, but I have been playing various 2 deck blackjack apps with $2000 starting chips and I have gotten to 500K on both with $10K max bet.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-11-2020, 01:58 AM   #2
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: Blackjack Odds

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I am willing to take a gamble on this roll and I want to know what are my best odds of doing it and stopping.
Actually you would be better off putting the whole 20k on player (in baccarat). That way your odds of success would be 49% (roughly, there is a 1% house edge and a possibility of a tie). The more small wagers you use, the more likely you are to fail, and the more likely you are to approach your expectation (which is negative).

Or, you could learn how to count cards, and with proper bet sizing have a > 95% chance of doubling your bankroll vs busting.
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Old 09-11-2020, 02:09 AM   #3
MonkeyMonkey
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Re: Blackjack Odds

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Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
Actually you would be better off putting the whole 20k on player (in baccarat). That way your odds of success would be 49% (roughly, there is a 1% house edge and a possibility of a tie). The more small wagers you use, the more likely you are to fail, and the more likely you are to approach your expectation (which is negative).

Or, you could learn how to count cards, and with proper bet sizing have a > 95% chance of doubling your bankroll vs busting.
Wouldn't I want to bet it on banker? And max bet in Bac is $5000 too. Also, can you count 2 deck BJ which is dealt upside down? Or I could just request to play alone?
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Old 09-11-2020, 04:16 AM   #4
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: Blackjack Odds

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Wouldn't I want to bet it on banker?
Because you have to pay commission.

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And max bet in Bac is $5000 too.
You've got 20,000 burning a hole in your pocket, I'm sure you can afford a greyhound ticket to a more sophisticated gambling hall

Quote:
Also, can you count 2 deck BJ which is dealt upside down? Or I could just request to play alone?
Yes, pitch games are countable, even with other players at the table. You just count their cards when they are exposed at the end of the hand.
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Old 09-11-2020, 04:38 PM   #5
Biggle10
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Re: Blackjack Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyMonkey View Post
I have a newbie and kinda laughable question.

I have 20K I am willing to risk in real life and I want to play a 2 deck blackjack game, BJ pays 3:2 and dealer hits on soft 17 with $100 minimum / $5000 MAX. I start with playing 2 hands at $500 a hand and press every winning bet (so I win $500 and I play $1000 and so on). What are my odds of doubling my money during 1 shoe?

I am willing to take a gamble on this roll and I want to know what are my best odds of doing it and stopping.

I know this isn't the same, but I have been playing various 2 deck blackjack apps with $2000 starting chips and I have gotten to 500K on both with $10K max bet.

Thoughts?
If your goal is to double or nothing make a single bet like people have suggested. If its a math question there's a probability forum that can help you with the math.
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Old 09-11-2020, 05:43 PM   #6
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: Blackjack Odds

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If your goal is to double or nothing make a single bet like people have suggested.
And don't make it on blackjack. For one thing, you are more likely to lose than to win. Your odds of winning a hand of blackjack are are only 42.22%! Your odds of losing are 52.51%. You could also tie. And because you cannot double down or split the house edge is significantly higher in your one bet scenario than it would be normally (around 3% assuming you play otherwise perfectly, IIRC). So it is better to go player or banker, or pass or don't pass, or red black on European or especially French roulette.
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Old 10-03-2020, 07:33 PM   #7
daringly
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Re: Blackjack Odds

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Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
And don't make it on blackjack. For one thing, you are more likely to lose than to win. Your odds of winning a hand of blackjack are are only 42.22%! Your odds of losing are 52.51%. You could also tie. And because you cannot double down or split the house edge is significantly higher in your one bet scenario than it would be normally (around 3% assuming you play otherwise perfectly, IIRC). So it is better to go player or banker, or pass or don't pass, or red black on European or especially French roulette.
With splits and double-downs, the house-edge long-term is about 0.5% if you play flawless basic strategy. It's pretty easy to find a 6-deck game where the player has a 0.7-1% edge if you are spreading 1 to two hands of 8 units with a 1-deck cut.

The bigger challenge is being welcome to continue taking the casino's money.
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Old 10-12-2020, 11:09 AM   #8
colt45ss
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Re: Blackjack Odds

take 10k invest it in a mutual fund
take the other 10K and market watch for a ML spread that's +EV
like the raiders yesterday or the heat the night before or the rays in game 5 vs the yanks.
even money is no way to treat 20k
that will mean you hate money and want to make babies cry
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