Yeah, but the third card rule intervenes just on 8.6% of the total hands (about one hand over 11).

If you are betting Banker on the symmetrical hands where the payment is 0.95:1 you are wasting a lot of money. Conversely in such situations Player bets are paying a zero house tax.

Actually the very important 1/11 ratio could be studied in some way.

the dragon bet is countable but not worthwhile

I've been dealing baccarat for years and have yet to see anyone playing who isn't a complete tard who thinks they can predict future outcomes based on past results.

Yeah, just sit there inputting every card dealt into your app the entire time and place one huge wager every 90min, the casino will never suspect anything.

I don't know what this app is, but you could get away with it where I work.

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count counts the 2-9's as +1 and 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

Turned $40 into $700 in 20 minutes. Lost it all back the next day...

I value all opinions on this subject. With that stated are there any winning players out there? To profit long term is not a likely occurance from what I have seen. The only players I have seen win more than not have just hit and run over a certain $ amount.

The casino is profiting long term. You can win short term fairly often on this low house edge game, and it is one of my personal favorites if I feel like gambling, which i usually do!

The game is close enough to even that there are certainly many many lifetime winners. Some of them even realize it's pure luck.

I want to hear some degen stories.

I know a guy in Gary, IN, who won 350K twice and lost it all back in Bac. Thought he had a system, he was going for a million. It was like watching a trainwreck in slow motion.

I tried using a spreadsheet on my phone while sitting at a baccarat stadium in Macau and within 5min staff came and told me to stop. I wasn't being very subtle though. I didn't even place a single bet, I was just inputting every card dealt.

Those casino geniuses don't know that a vulgar manual registration will get the player the same advantage calculated by an electronic device.

So next time they'll forbid you to write down anything. :-)

I've seen player hit a run of 15, yes, 15 straight wins. That's why.


Ofc I bet banker thinking player can't possibly win again..... It did. Over and over again.

I was bored so did the math, and you should see this or a longer streak about once every 40K hands dealt.

A few days ago I was dealing, after 33 hands there were more ties than banker wins. At 30 hands it was 10 apiece.

Here's a guy who doesn't understand probability and EV.

I've seen the following hands in order:

player
tie
banker
tie
player
tie
banker
(you guessed it) tie

then hat pattern ended.

I also saw a shoe hat had 7 ties, 2 bankers, 25 players. Only 2 bankers??????

I've been on a $50 table that had 19 players in a row. Skip a couple of hands and then 21 bankers in a row. The casino had to refill the chip tray 3 times over. I think cumulatively we(the whole table) took them for about 500k that night. Max bet was 6k.

I know it's 50/50 and every hand is independent but betting the runs seems like the best way to play. Sometimes you get a run of a side and you can make a lot of money. I feel like it happens at least once a shoe.

The annoying thing about this game is that it's so slow with all the stupid players looking at patterns and discussing a strategy and waiting until the last possible second to bet.

Math check on strategy for EZ Baccarat (no commission on banker wins, 3 card seven banker win is a push)

Ev calculation for $40 banker bet + $1 dragon bet every hand (probs from wizard of odds)
Banker non 3 card 7: .436064 * 40 = 17.44256.
Banker 3 card 7: .022534 * 40 = .90136
Tie: .095156 * -1 = -.095156
Player: .446247 * -41 = -18.2961
Total. = -.04736

Did I do this right?

Betting $41 to win 40 (2.5 % commission on banker wins)
Lose $1 on ties
Lose $41 on player wins

If correct, doing this plus counting the panda could be positive ev, and could get rated as a big limit player for comps (same odds 80/2, 120/3, etc) when only losing five cents per hand long term

Thoughts ?

Never mind, found my mistake, win on banker non 3 card 7 is 39 not 40.

Seemed too good to be true.

you should have known something was off when you decided betting tie was a good idea

I can predict the outcome even without the past results. I predict that it will be one of these three results:
- Banker 45.8597% chance
- Player 44.6247% chance
- Tie 9.5156% chance

In all seriousness, baccarat is a great illustration of the gambler's fallacy. In an eight deck shoe, even if you count the cards perfectly you will pretty much end up losing. The past results of the hands do not impact the next hand to come out of the shoe, so no betting system based on past results will work over the long run. Great explanation here: http://vegasclick.com/gambling/fallacy

Some people will tell you that just betting the banker bet every time is the way to go; however, even that won't be profitable in the long run because of the house taking a commission on banker wins.

To my knowledge, I am the only person who has developed a system of beating baccarat profitably over the long term using the rules and odds as they currently exist in just about every US casino. The reason? I play the odds and do not base any prediction on the previous outcome.

Lol at coming in and trolling the baccarat thread today.