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Old 09-08-2020, 06:40 PM   #426
Lattimer
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Re: Baccarat

He turned this thread into his personal blog a long time ago. He has a history of doing that which is why he's exiled from my forum.
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Old 09-28-2020, 09:27 AM   #427
cap217
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Re: Baccarat

I wasnt going to post here but I came back to 2+2 after a long time off and found this thread. I was a poker player from the mid 2000s through 2017 Id say. I went from small stakes limit to mid stakes and traveling. Then in the late 2000s tried NL and I didnt like the game as much but I was a winner in both games. Then early 2010s to PLO small stakes and never moved up except for the rare mid stakes games. All live.

I also work and am involved in many businesses and that picked up in 2015 so poker started to phase out as I was doing well working and poker was not fun. Thats when I picked up bac. I am very analytical and look for edges or ways to win and I track EVERYTHING with notes, buy ins, etc... I dont lie or cheat my numbers like 99% of the gamblers do. I am also a winning gambler unlike 99.9% of gamblers that say they win. I am a loser at sports betting but a very small amount and I tested "systems" that I came up with. That didnt work so I quit. I dont play games for the rush or the need to gamble. I dont get mad or tilt or chase.

I tracked 1540 hours of bac play over 1110 sessions from 1/2017 - 6/2019 then I slowed down a lot and rarely went to the casino. I had a strict way of playing. Notice that I didnt use strategy because I will never say you can beat the game or predict outcomes or anything like that. My way of "beating" bac was patience and control. I buy into the hit and run strategy more than anything else but what I did was a little different. I even made a pdf with rules and got a friend doing it where he was able to beat the game. Im not killing it, my goal is $200/day, I also try to make it look like Im losing when I buy in. I buy in for $500, put $200 in my pocket, play, put more in my pocket, rebuy, same thing, and never cash in. The casino always had me -100 to -200k for the year in the system.

I dont want to discuss strategy because I dont think there is one. I read that someone here did he hit and run strategy but would stay and chase when losing and get stuck thousands while his win ceiling was hundreds. Thats a sure way to go broke. The best part about bac is that you dont have to bet every hand. You can sit out for a whole shoe if you want. You can change tables. You can enter mid shoe. You can even bet multiple tables at some casinos (mine you could, Ive bet 4 tables at once before).

I quit playing bac because I dont like the casino as much as I used to. But if I travel to a casino its poker and bac still. You have to really grind out to win and Im not even sure you can win yet. My only experience is my play and I know the game has a house edge and I know all the downfalls but I still won a small amount over a decent amount of live hours. I was occupying my time but also testing ideas. It wasnt worth it.

Id play at empty tables if I could. I would bet super fast to make shoes go in 15 min. I would free hand. I would play with dealers I knew that could keep up, good conversation to pass time, and knew how I played and what bets Id probably make. I would try to win $200/session. My avg bet was $60. I would bet from $40-200 but rarely over $100. I always bet in $20 increments so commission was easy. Never make side bets or ties.

1540 hours
1110 sessions
$12,600 win
$8.21 hr

My goal was to start betting 10x bet sizing and 10x my profit. But the swings you encounter would make life miserable doing that. $8.21/hr isnt good, we all know that. But if I could even 5x my bet size that would be $40/hr which starts to be acceptable. But then you are betting a lot of black or purple chips and chip tracking is more accurate and attention from everyone else. The good news is that our casino has 6 tables, always busy, and players that bet a lot consistently. So I could always stay under the radar.

Ask questions if you want. Again, I dont have a card prediction strategy or anything like that. But I did count for a while and it never paid off for me. And winning 1-3 bets a shoe is probably the best you can hope for. I also never had a run where I crushed a shoe for 10 bets and I never parlayed my bets or did anything like that.
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Old 09-28-2020, 01:42 PM   #428
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

Interesting post, but it doesn't make any sense. Talking about switching tables, waiting until midshoe, all nonsense.

Sounds like you ran good without ever "blowing your brains out".

Do you feel like you are +EV at bacc? And if not, what's it all about?
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Old 09-28-2020, 02:01 PM   #429
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Interesting post, but it doesn't make any sense. Talking about switching tables, waiting until midshoe, all nonsense.

Sounds like you ran good without ever "blowing your brains out".

Do you feel like you are +EV at bacc? And if not, what's it all about?
Your assessment is correct. I never had an edge, ever. I tried everything I could and it was all nonsense. I ran good maybe but I think discipline and knowing when to leave was the key to winning. Do I think there is a strategy? Not at all. I think my sample size is decent though.

I had pretty strict rules on when to bet. But all it did was limit my exposure. I see everyone bet every hand and those people never win in the long run.

Last edited by cap217; 09-28-2020 at 02:25 PM.
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Old 09-28-2020, 02:04 PM   #430
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
Your assessment is correct. I never had an edge, ever. I tried everything I could and it was all nonsense. I ran good maybe but I think discipline and knowing when to leave was the key to winning. Do I think there is a strategy? Not at all. I think my sample size is decent though.
Why the "maybe" after you ran good? If you finished ahead after thousands of -EV wagers, to what else could you attribute it?


What would trigger you to pull the trigger on a bet when you're playing just a few hands a shoe?
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Old 09-28-2020, 02:32 PM   #431
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Why the "maybe" after you ran good? If you finished ahead after thousands of -EV wagers, to what else could you attribute it?


What would trigger you to pull the trigger on a bet when you're playing just a few hands a shoe?
Funny. I found my old pdf rules that I followed. Laugh all you want, it was just something to follow and be consistent. Again, I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS A WINNING STRATEGY or BAC IS BEATABLE. You are right, I ran good but was also patient.


Baccarat Strategy and Rules V2.1
Rules:
 Patience is the most important skill while playing. This seems obvious but this is the downfall of the strategy if not followed.
 Remember that NOT making a bet is OK. Money not wagered is money earned.
 Never bet against runs. I have watched it happen many times where someone (including myself) will bet against a run that just keeps going.
 Donít play side bets. All side bets are bad and are considered a leak.
 Never take a bet down after its placed (if itís the correct bet per the strategy). Your feeling or emotions donít matter at all so donít let them get in the way.
 When you get the urge to leave, leave. Itís that simple. Donít stay and force yourself to keep playing because this usually ends up bad.
 If you lose 5 bets in a row, take a 5-minute break. The odds of losing 5 bets in a row is 3%.
 The primary goal is to win 1-2 units an hour.
 There is a hard stop loss of 15 units. Once 15 units is lost, leave.
 If you lose 8 bets in a row, leave. The odds of this is 0.3%.
 Donít leave on an upswing. Keep playing though it and try to win more.
 If you are up 6 units or more, you can stay until you lose 2 bets in a row.
 Donít ever play when you are on time constraints. This can be a grind and take a while. Having to leave because you only had 2 hours to play is a set up for failure.
Strategy:
 You are ONLY betting the 2nd bet after a switch.
o If a board is:
 Player Ė Player Ė Player Ė Banker = You now bet banker
 Banker Ė Banker Ė Player = You now bet player
 After those bets, you wouldnít bet again until it switches
 Do not bet on a new shoe.
o You only make your first bet after 2 back to back 2nd bet winners happen OR
o One side wins 4 or more in a row.
 Bet sizing is determined by which side of the shoe is winning more hands.
o If the Player side is winning more hands, then you would bet 1.5 units on player and .75 units on banker.
o If the Banker side is winning more hands, then you would be 1.5 units on banker bets and .75 units on player bets.
o If the shoe is even, then you would make consistent 1 unit bets on each side.
 If 4 chops in a row happen, sit out until either:
o One side wins a back to back then the next side wins a back to back OR
o One side wins 4 or more in a row.
 If shoes are choppy, just sit out until the next shoe. If the next shoe is chop, then switch tables. If the next table is chop, then leave.
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Old 09-28-2020, 02:58 PM   #432
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Re: Baccarat

Interesting, and I do appreciate the effort and thought. But all that means nada. You're flipping an unfavorable coin regardless of your checks and balances.


Good news is, you occupied yourself with a thoughtful exercise and made a little money doing it. Baccarat
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Old 09-28-2020, 03:49 PM   #433
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Interesting, and I do appreciate the effort and thought. But all that means nada. You're flipping an unfavorable coin regardless of your checks and balances.


Good news is, you occupied yourself with a thoughtful exercise and made a little money doing it. Baccarat
I agree with you. I couldnít find an edge or strategy that was +ev. Bad dealers that mis paid is possible but also a risk that Iím not comfortable with. But there was a dealer that would make a handful of mistakes per shift. Now with the shoes going to auto show color and winner that wonít happen anymore. Counting was tedious but possible with cards and no distractions. But that edge was so small and it never worked out for me. I gave up on that.
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:27 PM   #434
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Re: Baccarat

Well cap219, you are welcome and congrats to your results.

I'm deadly sure that baccarat is a beatable game itlr but only after having assessed by strict scientifical measurements that this thing is possible.

My opinion is that if we want to fight a math negative game, we must dispute the real randomness of the outcomes.And we need the theorical strongest definiton of randomness to start the work.
Probably some rare players realized it empirically but we need a verified edge to beat baccarat and of course a simple "bet this after that" doesn't make the job.

Many of the points you wanted to share here are correct by any means, yet they are not sufficient to beat the game. They are worth in order to lose less.

For such reasons I meekly suggest that not every shoe dealt is playable in any spot, other shoes are playable from the initial-intermediate portions of it to the end. Naturally and no matter how much unrandom is the actual production, only very few spots are capable to invert the HA.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:05 AM   #435
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Re: Baccarat

Still wondering how a select few people never lose in this game overall and always cash out positive...
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Old 10-16-2020, 01:41 PM   #436
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

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Still wondering how a select few people never lose in this game overall and always cash out positive...
They dont
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Old Yesterday, 04:46 AM   #437
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Re: Baccarat

people might win in one casino and lose in another or they are just a lucky outlier. Baccarat is -ev no matter what.

dealt a little lower stakes bac to a fun group of people who were sweating their 50-100 dollar bets. good times. people are starting to come back to the casino. it was pretty busy tonight.
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Old Today, 11:39 AM   #438
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
 Don’t play side bets. All side bets are bad and are considered a leak.
Ironically the only vulnerability that I am aware of at a baccarat table is certain side bets, since these at least have appreciable EORs.


Quote:
 There is a hard stop loss of 15 units. Once 15 units is lost, leave.
Any sort of loss or win limit is good, the more restrictive / quicker to kick in the better, since at least it means you stop playing.
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