Baccarat - Page 17 - Other Gambling Games Forum

I was dubious, too. The closest thing I can find on the interwebs to indicate it might work is a different gambling forum, where someone commented that there are indications of a counting scheme that pros use, but they're keeping it to themselves. Indeed, I was warned NOT to reveal it to anyone (sorry, BigHurt), but I will say it's card dependent.

Quote

07-21-2020 , 06:28 PM

#402

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRGCardinal

There are some uncommon side bets that can be counted if you can get away with less than a bet per hour or two to capture it, but my understanding is that is only very marginally profitable, like less than minimum wage.

Quote

07-27-2020 , 04:03 PM

#403

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRGCardinal

If an aunt claimed she is a long-term winner at baccarat and decided to teach you how she does it, how many simulated shoes would you need to feel confident the system was valid, and how many units would be reasonable for a given +EV system to return per shoe?

Spoiler:

I think the worst baccarat simulation one can make is via excel as every hand is based upon strict probabilities (0.5068 and 0.4932).
In the real world no one single hand will show such probabilities, real probabiities move abruptly from 0.50/0.50 to 0.5793/0.4207 (8.6% of the times).

Anyway it's quite interesting to see the average profit per shoe.

Quote

07-27-2020 , 04:11 PM

#404

FRGCardinal

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,309

Yeah, I'm still not convinced, especially given I procured another set of 1000 simulated shoes and the model was negative on that run. Nevertheless, I'm trying it out using just dollar units at an online 'live' casino, though I noticed this place uses like HALF the shoe before shuffling, which I suppose prevents people from counting too deeply into the shoe, which is obviously much easier if you have a computer handy, lol. I won't get rich doing that, but I figured it was relatively safe for someone lacking a $10K roll for this project.

Quote

07-27-2020 , 05:22 PM

#405

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

I figured out.
Actually baccarat BP hands are 100% beatable only when some conditions are met, for example not all shoes are playable and of course a huge role is played by the actual shuffling conditions.

You are right. Most online casinos fear side bet card counting techniques (all countable and beatable under normal circumstances) thus they cut off from the play a lot of cards.

Finally and according to our results, the best achievement we got when betting under so called "perfect conditions" is winning a nearly 0.68 unit profit per shoe played.

Quote

07-29-2020 , 08:59 AM

#406

99killed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 6,188

Just starting to come back to 2p2 after Black Friday killed me and just stumbled into this thread. I've been dealing Baccarat for over 4 years now and learned to love this ridiculous game.

Last night, some old guy couldn't miss and won 30-35k. He had his biggest bet by far (9.5k) on the bank. First 4 cards 0-0. Player draws an 8 and I pull the miracle 9 for the banker. Actually kinda sick.

Quote

07-29-2020 , 12:58 PM

#407

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99killed

I learned the game by dealing it. I had zero idea what to expect, and my mind was blown by what I saw on a nightly basis. Oh my god, honey, why no jump?!

Quote

07-31-2020 , 12:57 AM

#408

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99killed

If that scenario had been on a Bad Beat Baccarat where he put some cheques on the Super Shot Bad Beat 3-card total of 9 wins over 3-card total of 8 then he would've had a boat load of money. In fact, here's an example of exactly this happening where the player put $50 on the bet and won $10,000:

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...9b&oe=5F48C4DC

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...9b&oe=5F48C4DC

Last edited by Jion_Wansu; 07-31-2020 at 01:06 AM.

Quote

07-31-2020 , 06:00 AM

#409

99killed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 6,188

I've never heard of that side bet. Interesting! It prolly has a gigantic house edge, I'm sure. We only have the Dragon Bonus at our live tables and have the pair bet on the console/livec dealer hybrid thing called interblock.

People go crazy for the dragon bet though as the biggest payout on a 9 point spread without a natural is 30-1.

MONKEY!

Quote

08-01-2020 , 11:04 PM

#410

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

Thank you, Jay Inslee, for making my gamin' experience miserable.

Went to the new EQC last night and had to wait for 4 hours to even get a seat in any pit game. Hell, even Let it Die (Let it Ride) was full for a long time.

All the recs and a few quite a few regs (who mainly played Pai Gow and some form of blackjack) that go to the non-tribal casinos ended up at the EQC to include people who go to bars because there's a statewide last call at 10:00PM (EQC's last call is 2:00AM)!!!

Quote

08-01-2020 , 11:07 PM

#411

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

What does it say about you that you waited four hours to play table games?

Quote

08-01-2020 , 11:40 PM

#412

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

When everyone was a kid and went to video game arcades; what did it say about them?

Quote

08-01-2020 , 11:48 PM

#413

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

I don't know about you, but I never waited four hours to play. Or even a fraction.

Quote

08-24-2020 , 09:02 AM

#414

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

The small non-tribal casinos may close their doors forever here pretty soon. Went to some of them because wanted to see how they're in their tents. Not too many people showed up. Then went to Emerald Queen and it was more packed than normal. Guess word got around that there is no smoking in the entire casino! The bacc tables went from 3 tables to 6 tables. Yes, now they have 6 bacc tables and no smoking. There is a designated smoking area by one of the entrances to the casino!

Quote

08-24-2020 , 09:34 AM

#415

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,709

baccarat has become my default min stake cool down between sessions, loved the crystal palace in macau because i could sit down with all the old grannies it attracted with the low stakes of only 100 HKD min bets where i'd slam back the booze and sandwiches and yell monkey

Quote

08-27-2020 , 05:48 AM

#416

99killed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 6,188

Dealt the bac all night tonight. Biggest bet was the last hand of the night $3900. This actual cool guy was getting killed all night and tried to get it back in this one hand. I hand him the banker cards and i turn over the player first. Natural 8, he is obv dejected and slams his hand over without looking. Ace Eight ftw. it was awesome.

This unreal sexy semi regular Vietnamese chick played at my table as well and couldn't win a bet and was blaming me. Tough way to pick up the pretty girls

. She's usually a great tipper too.

Fun night at the casino!

Quote

08-28-2020 , 06:09 PM

#417

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

Which place let's you bet $3,900 per hand? Must be a tribal casino.

Quote

08-29-2020 , 04:58 AM

#418

99killed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 6,188

Not a tribal place lol. Pretty easy to figure out where as its the only casino in the city center.

Why is $3900 a strange bet? He had 4k and put $100 on the side Dragon bet. If its about the commission, we take the commission out of the payment unlike other places where they keep track and collect at the end of the shoe. Kind of a pain as we have actual silver USD quarters in the tray.

Quote

08-29-2020 , 11:12 AM

#419

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99killed

That guy just assumes everyone lives and gambles in Washington state with Washington state laws.

Quote

09-05-2020 , 09:14 PM

#420

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

This is exactly what the non-tribal casinos in Washington have done. Ghetto tents, LOOOL

Quote

09-06-2020 , 05:52 AM

#421

99killed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 6,188

i dealt the other game in our Asian pit tonight. Pai Gow is a great game to play but sometimes a bore to deal. Nothing exciting tonight but dealt a royal without the joker to some ninety year old woman. She was pretty excited. Our progressive jackpot for a seven card straight flush is almost 800k though!