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Old 07-21-2020, 12:00 PM   #401
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by FRGCardinal View Post
If an aunt claimed she is a long-term winner at baccarat and decided to teach you how she does it, how many simulated shoes would you need to feel confident the system was valid, and how many units would be reasonable for a given +EV system to return per shoe?
It doesn't take any, since the rules of Baccarat define a -EV game. No betting system can change the EV of the game.

That doesn't preclude the possibility that someone can get lucky long term, and then survivorship bias makes them believe their system is a winner when it isn't. Many system books have been sold by survivors who played -EV games but were in the tiny majority at the far end of the variance curve.
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:37 PM   #402
FRGCardinal
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Re: Baccarat

I was dubious, too. The closest thing I can find on the interwebs to indicate it might work is a different gambling forum, where someone commented that there are indications of a counting scheme that pros use, but they're keeping it to themselves. Indeed, I was warned NOT to reveal it to anyone (sorry, BigHurt), but I will say it's card dependent.
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Old 07-21-2020, 06:28 PM   #403
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by FRGCardinal View Post
I was dubious, too. The closest thing I can find on the interwebs to indicate it might work is a different gambling forum, where someone commented that there are indications of a counting scheme that pros use, but they're keeping it to themselves. Indeed, I was warned NOT to reveal it to anyone (sorry, BigHurt), but I will say it's card dependent.
There are some uncommon side bets that can be counted if you can get away with less than a bet per hour or two to capture it, but my understanding is that is only very marginally profitable, like less than minimum wage.
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Old 07-27-2020, 04:03 PM   #404
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by FRGCardinal View Post
If an aunt claimed she is a long-term winner at baccarat and decided to teach you how she does it, how many simulated shoes would you need to feel confident the system was valid, and how many units would be reasonable for a given +EV system to return per shoe?

Spoiler:
I think the worst baccarat simulation one can make is via excel as every hand is based upon strict probabilities (0.5068 and 0.4932).
In the real world no one single hand will show such probabilities, real probabiities move abruptly from 0.50/0.50 to 0.5793/0.4207 (8.6% of the times).

Anyway it's quite interesting to see the average profit per shoe.
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Old 07-27-2020, 04:11 PM   #405
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Re: Baccarat

Yeah, I'm still not convinced, especially given I procured another set of 1000 simulated shoes and the model was negative on that run. Nevertheless, I'm trying it out using just dollar units at an online 'live' casino, though I noticed this place uses like HALF the shoe before shuffling, which I suppose prevents people from counting too deeply into the shoe, which is obviously much easier if you have a computer handy, lol. I won't get rich doing that, but I figured it was relatively safe for someone lacking a $10K roll for this project.
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Old 07-27-2020, 05:22 PM   #406
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Re: Baccarat

I figured out.
Actually baccarat BP hands are 100% beatable only when some conditions are met, for example not all shoes are playable and of course a huge role is played by the actual shuffling conditions.

You are right. Most online casinos fear side bet card counting techniques (all countable and beatable under normal circumstances) thus they cut off from the play a lot of cards.

Finally and according to our results, the best achievement we got when betting under so called "perfect conditions" is winning a nearly 0.68 unit profit per shoe played.
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Old 07-29-2020, 08:59 AM   #407
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Re: Baccarat

Just starting to come back to 2p2 after Black Friday killed me and just stumbled into this thread. I've been dealing Baccarat for over 4 years now and learned to love this ridiculous game.

Last night, some old guy couldn't miss and won 30-35k. He had his biggest bet by far (9.5k) on the bank. First 4 cards 0-0. Player draws an 8 and I pull the miracle 9 for the banker. Actually kinda sick.
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Old 07-29-2020, 12:58 PM   #408
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by 99killed View Post
Just starting to come back to 2p2 after Black Friday killed me and just stumbled into this thread. I've been dealing Baccarat for over 4 years now and learned to love this ridiculous game.

Last night, some old guy couldn't miss and won 30-35k. He had his biggest bet by far (9.5k) on the bank. First 4 cards 0-0. Player draws an 8 and I pull the miracle 9 for the banker. Actually kinda sick.
I learned the game by dealing it. I had zero idea what to expect, and my mind was blown by what I saw on a nightly basis. Oh my god, honey, why no jump?!
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:57 AM   #409
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by 99killed View Post
Just starting to come back to 2p2 after Black Friday killed me and just stumbled into this thread. I've been dealing Baccarat for over 4 years now and learned to love this ridiculous game.

Last night, some old guy couldn't miss and won 30-35k. He had his biggest bet by far (9.5k) on the bank. First 4 cards 0-0. Player draws an 8 and I pull the miracle 9 for the banker. Actually kinda sick.
If that scenario had been on a Bad Beat Baccarat where he put some cheques on the Super Shot Bad Beat 3-card total of 9 wins over 3-card total of 8 then he would've had a boat load of money. In fact, here's an example of exactly this happening where the player put $50 on the bet and won $10,000:

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...9b&oe=5F48C4DC


https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...9b&oe=5F48C4DC

Last edited by Jion_Wansu; 07-31-2020 at 01:06 AM.
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Old 07-31-2020, 06:00 AM   #410
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Re: Baccarat

I've never heard of that side bet. Interesting! It prolly has a gigantic house edge, I'm sure. We only have the Dragon Bonus at our live tables and have the pair bet on the console/livec dealer hybrid thing called interblock.

People go crazy for the dragon bet though as the biggest payout on a 9 point spread without a natural is 30-1.

MONKEY!
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:04 PM   #411
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Re: Baccarat

Thank you, Jay Inslee, for making my gamin' experience miserable.

Went to the new EQC last night and had to wait for 4 hours to even get a seat in any pit game. Hell, even Let it Die (Let it Ride) was full for a long time.

All the recs and a few quite a few regs (who mainly played Pai Gow and some form of blackjack) that go to the non-tribal casinos ended up at the EQC to include people who go to bars because there's a statewide last call at 10:00PM (EQC's last call is 2:00AM)!!!
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:07 PM   #412
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Re: Baccarat

What does it say about you that you waited four hours to play table games?
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:40 PM   #413
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

When everyone was a kid and went to video game arcades; what did it say about them?
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:48 PM   #414
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Re: Baccarat

I don't know about you, but I never waited four hours to play. Or even a fraction.
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