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Old 03-08-2019, 03:08 PM   #326
parttimepro
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Re: Baccarat

asymbacguy -- let's try to flesh this out a bit.
You go to a baccarat table. They open 6 fresh decks and load them into the shuffler. So you know with 100% certainty what the card order was before it was shuffled. What next? Do you bet on player or bank?

The first hand comes out 9-K, 8-Q. What do you bet next?
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:15 PM   #327
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by IsdImCallnNOTAllin View Post
Is the hourly winrate worth the effort in this? And is it something where one has to bet five figures or more when the time is right to make it worthwhile?
It depends as some shoes are not playable at all and it takes 1.5-2 hours to finish an 8-deck shoe.
Additionally tables where you can bet five figures very often feature lower speeds and one needs to keep track of several parameters, many of them not displayed on the screen (of course).
Finally my approach dictates to bet from zero to two or rarely three wagers per shoe, a thing that disgusts almost every bac player.

Imo and according to our results, baccarat is the best game to make money in a casino; mainly as at baccarat one could easily "fold" a lot of hands (say entire shoes) without having to wager a cent.
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:47 PM   #328
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
asymbacguy -- let's try to flesh this out a bit.
You go to a baccarat table. They open 6 fresh decks and load them into the shuffler. So you know with 100% certainty what the card order was before it was shuffled. What next? Do you bet on player or bank?

The first hand comes out 9-K, 8-Q. What do you bet next?
I do not know what's your point, probably that the next cards are 7, J, 6 and 10 thus I'd bet the 8/9 side bet paying me 200:1 along with a banker bet.
Third card for the player should be a 5 (8 the final point) but a 9 is going to make a fkng 9 point on the banker zero initial point.

Now I'm asking you a question.
What's the probability to win on banker side when the third card is a 6 and banker has 7?
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:51 PM   #329
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

Experts or so-called experts want to give the answer here.
Just to flesh out the topic a bit.
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Old 03-09-2019, 05:05 AM   #330
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

There are baccarat regs (like poker regs) at the casinos I mentioned. Lots never lose. Surprised the casinos haven't "backed them off" like in blackjack
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Old 03-09-2019, 07:50 AM   #331
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Jion_Wansu View Post
There are baccarat regs (like poker regs) at the casinos I mentioned. Lots never lose. Surprised the casinos haven't "backed them off" like in blackjack
Because guess what guy. They ****in lose sometimes.
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Old 03-09-2019, 10:46 AM   #332
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
What's the probability to win on banker side when the third card is a 6 and banker has 7?
It's irrelevant because you can't bet on it at that point. The probability could be 100% and it's still irrelevant to gambling. That's like the TV poker calculators that show the % at each street on a preflop all-in. Interesting but irrelevant to the game.
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Old 03-09-2019, 09:20 PM   #333
PokerHero77
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
It's irrelevant because you can't bet on it at that point. The probability could be 100% and it's still irrelevant to gambling. That's like the TV poker calculators that show the % at each street on a preflop all-in. Interesting but irrelevant to the game.
Not entirely. If you did not know the what the first 2 player cards would be, but you had a strong suspicion banker's first 2 would add to 7, and the 5th card would certainly be a 6, then the point is material.

To answer his question, player win probability is:

1) First 2 {2,3} = 0.19;
2) First 2 {8,9} = 0.19.
Total is 0.38

Player tie probability is:
1) First 2 {7} = 0.095;
2} First 2 {1} = 0.095.
Total is 0.19

Player lose probability is 1.0 - 0.38 - 0.19 = 0.43.

So in this specific case with the above information one would bet banker with an ev of 0.05/0.81 = 0.062.

I'm not asserting that was asym's point, but he has been discussing shuffle tracking and expectation of cards yet to be dealt, so maybe.
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Old 03-09-2019, 09:24 PM   #334
PokerHero77
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Because guess what guy. They ****in lose sometimes.
Theoretically it is possible the observer never sees the APs lose, but if true then they are not optimizing bankroll growth.
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Old 03-10-2019, 04:45 PM   #335
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

Pokerhero77, your nickname should be Baccarathero77! ;-)

About APs, I'm certain some people around the globe are playing with an edge and as long as this possible edge can't be mathematically ascertained, casinos and APs are swimming in relatively safe waters.

Actually European casinos tend to be more skeptical about the old "baccarat is an unbeatable game" statement, starting to ban some HS player who "seem" to be too right for long periods. Notice that in Europe 6-deck shoes are used.
And imo it's not a coincidence that in Montecarlo (maximum bet 30.000 euros) they deal 8-deck shoes cutting off from the play about two decks, despite their bac tables do not offer any side bet but ties.

Maybe someone told them to do this :-)
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Old 03-20-2019, 04:31 AM   #336
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Because guess what guy. They ****in lose sometimes.
They win more than they lose...

All casinos use 8 decks in bacc (WA state).

In other news:

Quote:
Another Spanish 21 winner!!! 10% of the Jackpot for a total of $3,631!
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Old 03-20-2019, 04:34 AM   #337
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

A double suited match pays 10%?

I would have expected that 5d to be a 2c.
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