Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
It's irrelevant because you can't bet on it at that point. The probability could be 100% and it's still irrelevant to gambling. That's like the TV poker calculators that show the % at each street on a preflop all-in. Interesting but irrelevant to the game.
Not entirely. If you did not know the what the first 2 player cards would be, but you had a strong suspicion banker's first 2 would add to 7, and the 5th card would certainly be a 6, then the point is material.
To answer his question, player win probability is:
1) First 2 {2,3} = 0.19;
2) First 2 {8,9} = 0.19.
Total is 0.38
Player tie probability is:
1) First 2 {7} = 0.095;
2} First 2 {1} = 0.095.
Total is 0.19
Player lose probability is 1.0 - 0.38 - 0.19 = 0.43.
So in this specific case with the above information one would bet banker with an ev of 0.05/0.81 = 0.062.
I'm not asserting that was asym's point, but he has been discussing shuffle tracking and expectation of cards yet to be dealt, so maybe.