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Old 12-10-2018, 05:41 PM   #276
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
No one bac player would be interested to know how to win an average of one bet per 2-3 or more shoes dealt, especially whether the betting rate is ridiculously low.
Would you?
That's why straight card counting isn't really worthwhile in Baccarat. But as you've already confirmed, your system actually relies on predicting asymmetrical patterns that are due to come out based on the deals you have seen already, not on card counting.

I'm glad we cleared that up.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 12-10-2018 at 05:58 PM.
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Old 12-10-2018, 06:15 PM   #277
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
That's why straight card counting isn't really worthwhile. And as you've already confirmed, your system actually relies on predicting asymmetrical patterns that are "due" to come out based on the deals you have seen already, not on card counting.

I'm glad we cleared that up.
Exactly.

Asym hands probability (8.4%) is nearly equal to the winning probability of 3 numbers in a single zero roulette (8.1%) but it features very different distributions and sd values (for obvious reasons). Especially when we have legitimate reasons to think that shuffles are not perfectly random.
Naturally asym hands apparition isn't a pure win situation, yet it leads to an interesting 15.86% long term advantage on B bets.
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Old 12-10-2018, 06:22 PM   #278
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
But as you've already confirmed, your system actually relies on predicting asymmetrical patterns that are due to come out based on the deals you have seen already, not on card counting.
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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
Exactly.
Just for the record.
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Old 12-10-2018, 07:51 PM   #279
PokerHero77
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Re: Baccarat

asymbacguy,

Does your method require observation of the same shoe of cards that were previously dealt?
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:20 PM   #280
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by PokerHero77 View Post
asymbacguy,

Does your method require observation of the same shoe of cards that were previously dealt?
Yes.
We have made several statistical registrations that tend to confirm that next same shoe outcomes are more often than not affected by the previous shuffle.

Of course it's not a matter of BP quantities but about the number and distribution of BP hand shifts.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:56 PM   #281
Fubster
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Re: Baccarat

So how much are you up?
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Old 12-12-2018, 05:42 PM   #282
PokerHero77
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
Yes.
We have made several statistical registrations that tend to confirm that next same shoe outcomes are more often than not affected by the previous shuffle.

Of course it's not a matter of BP quantities but about the number and distribution of BP hand shifts.
Ok, a typical shoe goes between 60-150 minutes, so that requires lot of time for observation. Of course that time can also be used for actual play as well, but a first shoe observation without play will always be required. That is a lot of dead time.

Also, can you tell me on average how many +EV plays you expect during a shoe? And what is the average EV of those plays? Thank you.
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