Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
Knowing all the conditional probabalities that make up the known unconditional probability, is like those TV poker displays that show changing probability on each street after a preflop all-in. Interesting but not useful information. If you can't bet on it then it's irrelevant. The only probability that matters is the one when the money goes in.
Right.
But key cards have a probability to appear and there are two main decisive spots where such cards will fall.
Let's consider only high cards.
Positions 1 and 3 on P side and by a lesser extent positions 2 and 4 on B side.
Whenever you bet P you want a 8, 9 or 7 falling on 1-3 spots. Otherwise you are betting a long term dog side (of course you could get a 6-2, 5-4 and 5-3 along with 6-A, 5-2, 4-3, 3-3, but they are less favorite to come). Even a 6 may be slightly good when betting P side.
Since high cards have a general probability to appear consecutively or clustered and a specific probability to appear consecutively or clustered (or not) knowing the cards removed, itlr some specific spots will get a higher, average or lower probability to get such cards.
Of course itlr the number of high cards will fall here and there in relationship of their liveness and probability to fall into specific spots.
Therefore a high card falling here or there should be considered as a kind of bonus or a missed opportunity (when combined with a low card).
But itlr the probability to get a high card remains the same, yet the room to get the opposite situation on the same shoe is more limited than expected.