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09-24-2018 , 08:11 PM

#226

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

Everything you just said is gibberish. You've offered no proof that you can beat it.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 08:19 PM

#227

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

Everything you just said is gibberish. You've offered no proof that you can beat it.

All in all, you're just another brick in the wall.

Are you capable to answer my questions?
Nope of course.
When you will, make me a call.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 08:22 PM

#228

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

You love coming on here and bragging about how you can beat baccarat or telling people who say you can't beat it that they're dumb but you refuse to do anything more than that. If you could beat it you really should never tell a soul.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 09:56 PM

#229

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

Nomen omen

Quote

09-25-2018 , 02:41 AM

#230

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,396

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

.

Are you capable to answer my questions?
Nope of course.
When you will, make me a call.

You talk like a bad guy from an 80s video game.

Quote

09-25-2018 , 03:08 AM

#231

onguard

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 195

Asym bacguy is an interesting poster.

Some of you guys would do well to occassionally take things for what they're worth, get value if you see it, move on if you don't imo. Not everything needs to be resolved especially if the guy you disagree with isn't asking randoms to send him money.

Quote

09-25-2018 , 10:23 AM

#232

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by onguard

Thank you buddy! :-)

Btw, Banker probability to win on asymmetrical hands is 57.93%.
End of the story, I won't bother anyone anymore.

Quote

09-26-2018 , 09:24 PM

#233

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

The best EV for banker with 13 unseen cards remaining is 0.56829033, when there are exactly 8 sevens and 5 eights. The probability of that deck composition is 1.4265222929217377E-12.

For Player, the best EV is 0.78214287, when there are exactly 9 twos and 4 threes. That probability is 6.792963299627322E-13.

With 13 unseen cards remaining Banker EV is less than 0.5 99.9999999981% of the time. Player EV is less than 0.5 99.9999999184% of the time.

It gets far more unlikely when more unseen cards are remaining.

Quote

09-26-2018 , 09:46 PM

#234

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

For 13 unseen cards, below is a table for Banker EV, broken out by specific probability and cumulative probability:

Code:

EV Range      Specific Prob.    Cumulative Prob.
below	-0.04	4.31380%	4.31380%
-0.04	-0.03	6.28818%	10.60198%
-0.03	-0.02	14.18024%	24.78222%
-0.02	-0.01	25.17818%	49.96040%
-0.01	0.0	30.57180%	80.53220%
0.0	0.01	14.70028%	95.23249%
0.01	0.02	3.27415%	98.50663%
0.02	0.03	0.92226%	99.42890%
0.03	0.04	0.32808%	99.75697%
0.04	0.05	0.13491%	99.89188%
0.05	0.06	0.05856%	99.95044%
0.06	0.07	0.02496%	99.97540%
0.07	0.08	0.01162%	99.98702%
0.08	0.09	0.00630%	99.99332%
0.09	0.1	0.00300%	99.99632%
0.1	0.11	0.00119%	99.99751%
0.11	0.12	0.00106%	99.99857%
0.12	0.13	0.00062%	99.99918%
0.13	0.14	0.00024%	99.99942%
0.14	0.15	0.00024%	99.99966%
0.15	0.16	0.00008%	99.99974%
0.16	0.17	0.00007%	99.99981%
0.17	0.18	0.00007%	99.99987%
0.18	0.19	0.00001%	99.99988%
0.19	0.2	0.00007%	99.99995%

And Player:

Code:

below	-0.04	1.43382%	1.43382%
-0.04	-0.03	3.64973%	5.08355%
-0.03	-0.02	18.29303%	23.37658%
-0.02	-0.01	44.65137%	68.02796%
-0.01	0.0	24.59243%	92.62039%
0.0	0.01	4.84238%	97.46277%
0.01	0.02	1.42907%	98.89184%
0.02	0.03	0.58323%	99.47507%
0.03	0.04	0.26012%	99.73518%
0.04	0.05	0.13478%	99.86996%
0.05	0.06	0.06741%	99.93737%
0.06	0.07	0.02887%	99.96624%
0.07	0.08	0.01585%	99.98209%
0.08	0.09	0.00752%	99.98961%
0.09	0.1	0.00468%	99.99429%
0.1	0.11	0.00246%	99.99675%
0.11	0.12	0.00117%	99.99793%
0.12	0.13	0.00065%	99.99858%
0.13	0.14	0.00048%	99.99906%
0.14	0.15	0.00029%	99.99935%
0.15	0.16	0.00026%	99.99960%
0.16	0.17	0.00013%	99.99973%
0.17	0.18	0.00005%	99.99978%
0.18	0.19	0.00005%	99.99983%
0.19	0.2	0.00005%	99.99988%

Quote

09-26-2018 , 09:59 PM

#235

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Bonus points for anybody who can get the best EV deck compositions for Dragon and Panda. (Tie is obvious, 13 tens).

FWIW the best EVs for each are 10.038462, and 7.7272726, respectively.

Quote

09-30-2018 , 05:45 PM

#236

Marco Trevix

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 214

@asymbac, check your messages box.

Quote

09-30-2018 , 09:06 PM

#237

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

I'd be interested if any brick and mortar establishments in US offer 9:1 on tie.

Quote

10-03-2018 , 04:58 PM

#238

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

I'd be interested if any brick and mortar establishments in US offer 9:1 on tie.

At least in US and in Europe we do not know any cardroom offering 9:1 on tie.
As you probably know you can find rare tables with a 4% vig on B winning hands.

Quote

11-10-2018 , 07:20 PM

#239

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

Our casino now has with the 200:1 option (which I hit for $1,000):

On a side note:

Could this be the future of poker:

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2018/...game-32556.htm

Quote

11-12-2018 , 05:04 PM

#240

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Here's the HE on BAD BEAT wagers:

200:1 Three-Card Nine Beats Three-Card Eight
House edge 16.65%.

Any bad beat
Natural 9/Natural 8 10:1
Any 8 over any 7 6:1
Any 7 over any 6 4:1
Any Bad Beat 1:1 (Bad Beat means a 4 and a 5, or a 0 and a 1, or 9 over an 8, etc.)

HE 6.88%

50:1 Natural Nine Beats Natural Eight,

HE 8.46%

25:1 Eight Beats Seven

HE 18.35%

Good news are that despite the ridicolous HE every single bac side bet is countable.

Quote

11-13-2018 , 01:16 AM

#241

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

A final note.
The scientific proof that bac can be beaten is to take infinite 6 or 8 deck shoes outcomes then comparing them with the same amount of "no third card rule" results.

If you know which patterns to look for and if you know what's the real probability to win per every asym or sym hand occurring per every class of cards utilized so far (a thing that nobody knows here), volatility and sd values are much reduced on the former class and, more importantly, capable to reduce and invert the HE by using a proper MM.

I notice that our mathematical bigshots are making no attempt to come up with a detailed refutation. Why? Because they can't!

Quote

11-13-2018 , 07:59 PM

#242

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

We know!
Baccarat pros like to wait a detailed refutation of what they are doing.
In the meantime they collect.

Quote

11-14-2018 , 04:51 AM

#243

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

Just to clarify: The bad beat bet must be placed for either PLAYER or BANKER losing, not both, correct?

Quote

11-14-2018 , 05:15 PM

#244

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Just to clarify: The bad beat bet must be placed for either PLAYER or BANKER losing, not both, correct?

Exactly.
Every single bet works for both sides, no matter which side takes the "bad beat".

Quote

11-20-2018 , 01:22 PM

#245

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

We know!
Baccarat pros like to wait a detailed refutation of what they are doing.
In the meantime they collect.

Lol, DS is just pulling your chain and you don't even know it.

Quote

11-20-2018 , 01:48 PM

#246

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,856

NOG - You just don't know which asymmetric patterns to look for.

Quote

11-20-2018 , 02:13 PM

#247

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

NOG - You just don't know which asymmetric patterns to look for.

You got me.

Quote

11-20-2018 , 05:53 PM

#248

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

Lol, DS is just pulling your chain and you don't even know it.

Fun Q low!

It's a very bad winning hand at 2-7, of course.

Quote

11-20-2018 , 09:01 PM

#249

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

NOG - You just don't know which asymmetric patterns to look for.

Tell the forum what's the probability to win when Banker has a 3 point giving an 8 to the Player as third card, otherwise your irony and total ignorance (along with someone's else) is worth as watering sagebrushes in the Mohave desert.

Good news are you are in good company here.