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02-19-2019 , 06:06 PM

#301

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jion_Wansu

[I]Congratulations to another big winner on Bad Beat Baccarat!!! 200 x 1 paid out for a total of $20,000! Come check out Bad Beat Baccarat at...]

Please let us know the location of this casino, or any others offering these prop bets.

Vegas/California would be a plus for me.

Quote

02-22-2019 , 11:37 AM

#302

DaleCampbellHU

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 12

Just curious, which one is more profitable long term. Blackjack or Baccarat? I'm guessing Blackjack with the card-counting. But baccarat?

Quote

02-22-2019 , 12:30 PM

#303

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaleCampbellHU

Just curious, which one is more profitable long term. Blackjack or Baccarat? I'm guessing Blackjack with the card-counting. But baccarat?

Blackjack can be beaten with card counting if the house deals high enough penetration and has favorable rules. Baccarat probably can't be beaten at all if the cards are shuffled properly between shoes, but sometimes some games have side bets that supposedly can be advantage plays. The straight game itself is a coin flip with a rake.

Quote

02-22-2019 , 11:43 PM

#304

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Please let us know the location of this casino, or any others offering these prop bets.

Vegas/California would be a plus for me.

Chips

8200 Tacoma Mall Blvd, Lakewood, WA 98499

The other place people go to is Macau Casino:

Last edited by Jion_Wansu; 02-23-2019 at 12:07 AM.

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02-23-2019 , 09:49 PM

#305

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Thanks Jion. Looks like a corporation banked casino, that is not a tribal casino.

Quote

02-24-2019 , 12:56 AM

#306

Jion_Wansu

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 420

house-banked card rooms not corporation-banked like in California

Quote

02-25-2019 , 05:09 PM

#307

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaleCampbellHU

Just curious, which one is more profitable long term. Blackjack or Baccarat? I'm guessing Blackjack with the card-counting. But baccarat?

As NewOldGuy pointed out, it's not that easy to perfectly randomize 8 baccarat decks and of course you are not forced to regularly take one side of the action at the start as it happens at bj.

Baccarat is a light biased coin flip finite and card dependent succession, a thing quite far from an unbeatable independent series of 50/50 results.

Bac is not beatable by strict card counting procedures.

Quote

02-25-2019 , 10:06 PM

#308

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

Baccarat is a light biased coin flip finite and card dependent succession, a thing quite far from an unbeatable independent series of 50/50 results.

Technically this is true if the cards are not fully randomized in the shuffle, but I'm still skeptical that you can advantage this without computer tracking and many hours of waiting for a +EV bet. I know you continue to claim that you can and have said so on these forums for years. If you make your exclusive living from Bac (for years) then I'll believe it. Otherwise I believe your ideas are just based on some lucky binks.

Quote

02-25-2019 , 11:54 PM

#309

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

The key to win at this game is finding a "limited" random walk working on two opposite situations. It takes some time to find such restricted deviations, thus many shoes aren't playable at all.

Naturally to get an edge such kind of derived random walk must cross several times the 0 value, we do not want to chase endless positive steps as it's a totally impossible task to achieve.
Yet a limited random walk offers many opportunities to wager profitably, especially when we start the betting when the fluctuations are strongly deviated to the left (negative side).

The more we wait the favourable opportunities the higher will be our EV by 100% accuracy.

Quote

02-26-2019 , 01:46 AM

#310

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

Ive never heard the term, and cannot figure out wtf a "limited random walk" is.

Quote

02-26-2019 , 09:36 AM

#311

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bighurt52235

Ive never heard the term, and cannot figure out wtf a "limited random walk" is.

It's a real thing, often called a local random walk. But also can't see how it applies to a baccarat shoe, as it describes a modeling algorithm for simulating random walks. Sometimes he uses words in ways that seemingly don't make sense.

Quote

02-26-2019 , 06:50 PM

#312

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

It's a real thing, often called a local random walk. But also can't see how it applies to a baccarat shoe, as it describes a modeling algorithm for simulating random walks.

Very soon you'll figure out.

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03-03-2019 , 11:01 AM

#313

rakemeplz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 12,648

I might be wrong, and not intended to disparage anyone, however I think asymbacguy is some weirdo who uses confusing language and jargon to troll the internet with his weird idea. That said I enjoy his interactions with "you people", so feel free and carry on. Just my impression.

Quote

03-03-2019 , 09:07 PM

#314

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakemeplz

He's been posting these asymmetrical theories for years on not just this forum but others. I'm sure he believes them. He has toned down the obvious gambler's fallacy ones a bit.

Quote

03-03-2019 , 09:59 PM

#315

Alpha Fish

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,823

he's basically an exact opposite of an advantage gambler - instead of quietly raking tens of millions crushing unsuspecting casinos around the world yelling "Monkey Monkey!" ripping decks and enjoying VIP treatment he tries to convince some people on a gambling forum that his trick 100% pinky swear works for no other reason than to potentially slaughter his golden pig

at least it would make some sense if he was bacc pit boss

Quote

03-04-2019 , 02:13 PM

#316

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,852

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

He's been posting these asymmetrical theories for years on not just this forum but others. I'm sure he believes them. He has toned down the obvious gambler's fallacy ones a bit.

Has he ever actually posted a theory? Other than if you know what to look for you will see the pattern?

Quote

03-04-2019 , 03:51 PM

#317

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Has he ever actually posted a theory? Other than if you know what to look for you will see the pattern?

He used to post a lot of stuff about cards and dice rolls not being independent and that the universe evened them out so you could predict things that are due. Of course he used his specialized lexicon to describe these ideas in ways that tried to avoid the obvious fallacy.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 05:09 PM

#318

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

Thanks NOG!

My theory relies on the fact that LIVE baccarat shoes cannot produce a fkng perfect randomness by any means.
That means that the game is continuosly ruled by an almost constant asymmetricity working on several levels and at different degrees.

Nobody is going to believe me so I'm not worried about possible casinos' countermeasures and even if this thing will be seriously taken by casinos (lol) I'm wealthy enough to not give a damned fk about it.

I keep writing as I'm bored to read that this game cannot be beaten. This is true only whether every single fkng shoe is perfectly randomized at the start.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 08:15 PM

#319

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

How are they not randomized? Relative to what?

A box with 416 randomly assorted cards is opened, loaded into a shuffling machine, and then loaded into a shoe.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 09:38 PM

#320

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

I keep writing as I'm bored to read that this game cannot be beaten. This is true only whether every single fkng shoe is perfectly randomized at the start.

Testy!

"Perfect randomness", whatever you think that means, is not necessary for a fair game (meaning the outcome distribution is as designed by the rules ) and almost certainly is never achieved in any game with real cards or real dice or real balls and wheels.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 03-04-2019 at 09:51 PM.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 09:52 PM

#321

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,852

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

That means that the game is continuosly ruled by an almost constant asymmetricity working on several levels and at different degrees.

Well, can't argue with that!*

*It's all meaningless.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 10:46 PM

#322

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

Exactly.
But whenever the game is not perfectly randomized, players could get an edge providing that in certain situations the unrandom bias is so huge to invert the math house edge.

The best proof is to test a method that utilizes a strict flat betting procedure that itlr can only lose on pc simulated outcomes. But not on real shoes.

@didace: of course it's all meaningless what I'm saying, you need to know what we are talking about, maybe you do not know how really baccarat works.

Last edited by asymbacguy; 03-04-2019 at 11:04 PM.

Quote

03-04-2019 , 11:07 PM

#323

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by asymbacguy

But whenever the game is not perfectly randomized, players could get an edge providing that in certain situations the unrandom bias is so huge to invert the math house edge.

No, only if the bias is predictable and bettable. Nonrandom by itself doesn't give you an advantage.

Your arguments go in circles and you are back to counting cards. And now you'll deny that because you've already admitted the game isn't really beatable by card counting, not enough to be worth the effort. Which will put you back to metaphysical quantum entanglement.

Quote

03-05-2019 , 04:58 PM

#324

asymbacguy

banned

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

No, only if the bias is predictable and bettable. Nonrandom by itself doesn't give you an advantage.

That's for sure, but it's a good start.

Quote

03-08-2019 , 01:09 PM

#325

IsdImCallnNOTAllin

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 52

Is the hourly winrate worth the effort in this? And is it something where one has to bet five figures or more when the time is right to make it worthwhile?

Quote

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