That's why straight card counting isn't really worthwhile in Baccarat. But as you've already confirmed, your system actually relies on predicting asymmetrical patterns that are due to come out based on the deals you have seen already, not on card counting.

I'm glad we cleared that up.

Exactly.

Asym hands probability (8.4%) is nearly equal to the winning probability of 3 numbers in a single zero roulette (8.1%) but it features very different distributions and sd values (for obvious reasons). Especially when we have legitimate reasons to think that shuffles are not perfectly random.
Naturally asym hands apparition isn't a pure win situation, yet it leads to an interesting 15.86% long term advantage on B bets.

Just for the record.

asymbacguy,

Does your method require observation of the same shoe of cards that were previously dealt?

Yes.
We have made several statistical registrations that tend to confirm that next same shoe outcomes are more often than not affected by the previous shuffle.

Of course it's not a matter of BP quantities but about the number and distribution of BP hand shifts.

So how much are you up?

Ok, a typical shoe goes between 60-150 minutes, so that requires lot of time for observation. Of course that time can also be used for actual play as well, but a first shoe observation without play will always be required. That is a lot of dead time.

Also, can you tell me on average how many +EV plays you expect during a shoe? And what is the average EV of those plays? Thank you.

Yeah, unfortunately we can't do almost anything on the first shoe dealt.
First shoe should be considered as our indicator for possible future bets, classifying it positionally by patterns and key outcomes (naturals, standing points, asymmetrical spots).

The EV subject is quite intricate as it depends on how much we want to raise the probability of success per every betting range or ranges by a possible multilayered betting.
Differently to the english team we are not aiming to get just one single winning outcome after several progressive bets as the only way to get an advantage in games is by flat betting.
More on that later.

Probability or EV cannot be changed by the player.

On a side note, I am convinced the technology to alter randomness of an automated shuffler exists and has been tried by some company in the industry. Whether it is actually deployed in practice is difficult to ascertain. I guess asymbacguy believes this goes on in B&M casinos. If it were discovered there are probably enough arms-length transactions for basically everyone involved to avoid prosecution.

For this to be worthwhile the casino would need to identify which card sequences benefit them and which do not. I don't really think that would be difficult to engineer or even allow the end user to program in, using some undocumented back door "feature".

Correct.
And we shouldn't forget the general slight probability to get opposite outcomes of what already happened as baccarat isn't a 50/50 independent game.
Of course there are cutoff points and some shoes cannot be profitably played.

And what kind of shuffle machine is used in these games that you believe have flawed shuffles?

Shuffle machines are supposed to deal real random results whether at least two complete shuffles were made from the previous distribution. A thing that can't never be accomplished for a common 8 deck shoe used at most bac rooms.

In Vegas world you should try Rio, Gold Coast, Palms, Red Rock, Palace Station bac tables.

Why? EZ Bacc?

Which is why I asked you what kind. The better ones guarantee randomness, and you only put the cards in them once, not twice.

Yep.


This is an interesting link about casino shelf shuffle machines

http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/casino.pdf

Yesh but nobody uses these things.

Thinking more about this, how much documented sequencing of cards dealt from same shoe-to-shuffler-to same shoe would need to be collected? For example, if we had 1,000 shoes documented would that be enough to conclude that shuffles are less than random?

Identifying the favorable sequences is straightforward. It helps that 90% of the wagers are on banker and dragon.

Example. The easiest sequence to draw dragon is when first 2 banker cards add to zero. Of course ten/face cards are most likely combinations for zero. So if tens/faces were followed by more tens/faces, then prob of getting dragon would be reduced, because it is impossible to get dragon drawing ten/face.

So perhaps one way of determining non-randomness is documenting how often selected frequencies occur, and compare with random chance. Above example track how often hands have 6 tens/face cards, which should happen about once in 1,200 6 card hands.

Exactly.

Therefore when Banker side isn't supposed to get a zero initial point, we are reducing by at least 20% the probability to get a dragon.
Other key situations come when Banker gets a zero-2 or 2-zero initial cards, now making dragon bet overall 30% less probable.

Additionally zero value cards enhance the probability to get symmetrical hands, meaning that the very slight propensity to get opposite outcomes is increased (thus reducing the player disadvantage).

There is an average probability to get zero cards (or other key cards) clusters and there's an actual probability we should investigate about.

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Who is taking those pictures, and from inside the pit? Kind of unbelievable.

Yeah.
It's casinos' interest to show up how wonderful are such silly bets, mostly as the vast majority of bac players love to think that baccarat is a game based on luck ("due" patterns or bull**** like that).