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Old 04-01-2018, 09:11 PM   #126
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
I wonder if a bacc fish like jion wansu even comprehends the post above this.
I do not know :-)

I''m trying to get the idea that BESIDES THE ACTUAL OUTCOMES, anytime we're betting Player we are hoping to get a 6,7,8 or 9 point, so to get the best of the 38/62 negative edge.
Conversely, anytime we are betting Banker side, we are hoping to get the Player drawing, first.
It's a pure stupid move trying to be right after Player side isn't drawing, as we are playing a taxed coin flip game.

Moreover, the fantastic and countable "Dragon" 7 fortune bet, almost always cannot come out whether player is not drawing (exception: P getting an exact 6 point with B drawing).

In a nutshell, the vast majority of bac side bets come out whenever Player side is drawing (think about the tie bet, coming out far more often whenever 6 cards form a single hand).

Besides the easy countable pairs side bet (lol, they are offered at high stakes rooms), we could think the game as a mere Player drawing/Player standing proposition, not caring a bit about the actual outcomes.

Most bac players do not care a bit about what a constant 62/38 proposition will distribute itlr.
They care about patterns, the feature that not even a bighorn sheep could take into account for.
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Old 04-23-2018, 06:09 AM   #127
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

No bacc fish here
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Old 05-03-2018, 02:26 AM   #128
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by twiyPRO View Post
Baccarat is such a nice game.
But very complicated to beat and also -ev for most of the players.

I really prefer BlackJack.
Indeed Baccarat is plenty of fun and I prefer it over Roulette for example when I want to gamble a bit. Poker can be stressful, so sometimes is OK to let the steam out playing against the casino, just for entertainment.
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:49 PM   #129
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Lockinsond View Post
Indeed Baccarat is plenty of fun and I prefer it over Roulette for example when I want to gamble a bit. Poker can be stressful, so sometimes is OK to let the steam out playing against the casino, just for entertainment.
I agree, yet at a poker table you know you won't be a fish as in baccarat.
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Old 05-24-2018, 02:35 AM   #130
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

From the years 2011 - 2016 I used to win on average $100 - $300 per day everytime I went. So it is possible to win in bacc.

2017 and 2018 have been bad runs mostly due to my fault because I just screw around and bet whatever (due to recreation and/or drinking.

I played here during my winning streak:



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Old 05-24-2018, 06:52 AM   #131
onguard
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
I agree, yet at a poker table you know you won't be a fish as in baccarat.
Plenty of poker players would be less worse off just taking bacc flips.

Some poker games have entire fields who are getting more the worst of it than a low stakes bacc player due to ridiculous structure and rake. The typical player trying to turn his $50 into a grand or so at some lol 30+20 with a push fold after 15 minutes structure would have a much better chance just pressing for a few hands of baccarat.
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Old 05-26-2018, 04:41 PM   #132
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by onguard View Post
Plenty of poker players would be less worse off just taking bacc flips.

Some poker games have entire fields who are getting more the worst of it than a low stakes bacc player due to ridiculous structure and rake. The typical player trying to turn his $50 into a grand or so at some lol 30+20 with a push fold after 15 minutes structure would have a much better chance just pressing for a few hands of baccarat.
Of course.
And for that matter, 95% of WSOP entrants would have a better ROI playing baccarat than WSOP.

I meant that at baccarat any edge for the player is denied right at the start, whereas in the proper circumstances many poker players know to capitalize opponents' inferior plays.
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Old 05-28-2018, 01:04 PM   #133
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Re: Baccarat

Especially when you consider American tax. A red chip baccarat player on a heater is almost never paying tax. An American who sattelites in and then sun runs a wsop event almost always is paying a ton of it.

I've also litterally went on stretches of 100+ hrs where I've never seen another bacc player tip the dealer. Poker games that get $7 taken out of a $50 pot almost always see the dealer getting at least a buck. I've seen players tip on pots where they won the pot but lost to the rake especially in California.

There's something wrong with regulations in the USA when poker rooms are considered wasted space by the operator.
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:38 PM   #134
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

Absolutely true.

And that's why is very important for a serious poker player to only join time collection tables where a $1 tip will get a tremendeous lower effect than at low limit smaller raked pots.
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Old 06-15-2018, 07:00 AM   #135
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by gobbo View Post
Congrats, you've solved baccarat.
this
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Old 06-15-2018, 02:59 PM   #136
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by asymbacguy View Post
More precisely, the probability that Player gets a 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 initial point is the addition of 14.33%, 9.65%, 9.35%, 9.65%, 9.35%, 9.65% distinct probabilities, that is an overall value of 61.98%. Thus 32% of the times Player side won't draw (being favorite to win and of course totally denying the Banker advantage).
Player takes a card with a value of 5 after first two cards, right?
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Old 06-15-2018, 03:12 PM   #137
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Re: Baccarat

Just my 2 cents, its possible to make a living out of baccarat ,with a big bankroll and not a scared money its doable ,but dont get greedy because it will eventually **** you up
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Old 06-15-2018, 04:58 PM   #138
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NLOmahaHL View Post
Player takes a card with a value of 5 after first two cards, right?
Exactly, unless banker got an 8 or 9 point.
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Old 06-15-2018, 10:48 PM   #139
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by PSG View Post
Just my 2 cents, its possible to make a living out of baccarat ,with a big bankroll and not a scared money its doable ,but dont get greedy because it will eventually **** you up
Do tell, can you explain the math behind how you can have a realistic advantage play in baccarat? A game that by design and rules has a house advantage? And we all know about the side bets that you can make 50 cents an hour on with a $10K bankroll. Aside from those.
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Old 06-16-2018, 12:28 AM   #140
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Re: Baccarat

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Do tell, can you explain the math behind how you can have a realistic advantage play in baccarat? A game that by design and rules has a house advantage? And we all know about the side bets that you can make 50 cents an hour on with a $10K bankroll. Aside from those.
Abuse the comps- I have a black players card which is the highest card at the casino. I get a week of rooms if i wager 20-25K, the odds of baccarat is ~1.5 house edge, so 25K @1.5 is -375, a week of rooms can be sold for at least 500-800. also a monthly promotion chips, (i get 1K promo chips every month). Those 2 things alone makes the game +ev.

Not to mention, you get food comps, gift shop comps, occasionally you get free cruise ticket, blackjack tournament ticket, and drawings that could net you a new car. (black card gets more drawing tickets than other card)

Please note humans are not robots even if the game is +ev, if you are a degen you will still lose. i guess when you have a black card, you pretty much prove you them that you are a degen so idt they care if you gain somewhat of an advantage, because at the end of the day you will bring the money back with interests....like ive been doing for the last 3 years... (poker players dont get comps, so its impossible for them to get a black card)

Ive lost so much that these +ev games that it doesnt even matter to me. these days i just bring little money with the intention of 10x it, so ev doesn't really matter much and most of the time i go home broke.

so yes this game can be +ev if you have the right comps.

Last edited by Tripacesdown; 06-16-2018 at 12:43 AM.
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Old 06-16-2018, 12:56 AM   #141
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Tripacesdown View Post
Abuse the comps- I have a black players card which is the highest card at the casino. I get a week of rooms if i wager 20-25K, the odds of baccarat is ~1.5 house edge, so 25K @1.5 is -375, a week of rooms can be sold for at least 500-800. also a monthly promotion chips, (i get 1K promo chips every month). Those 2 things alone makes the game +ev.

Not to mention, you get food comps, gift shop comps, occasionally you get free cruise ticket, blackjack tournament ticket, and drawings that could net you a new car. (black card gets more drawing tickets than other card)

Please note humans are not robots even if the game is +ev, if you are a degen you will still lose. i guess when you have a black card, you pretty much prove you them that you are a degen so idt they care if you gain somewhat of an advantage, because at the end of the day you will bring the money back with interests....like ive been doing for the last 3 years... (poker players dont get comps, so its impossible for them to get a black card)

Ive lost so much that these +ev games that it doesnt even matter to me. these days i just bring little money with the intention of 10x it, so ev doesn't really matter much and most of the time i go home broke.

so yes this game can be +ev if you have the right comps.
Food and gift shop comps do not equate to making a living.


Youre saying if you make 40 $500 bets they'll comp your room for a week?
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Old 06-16-2018, 01:36 AM   #142
Tripacesdown
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
Food and gift shop comps do not equate to making a living.


Youre saying if you make 40 $500 bets they'll comp your room for a week?
yes, its better if you bet 200-300 a hand for a few hours. You just gotta have a player card probably 3 higher than the starting card. Just prove to them that you are a degen and not those once in a blue moon gambler.

Gift shop you buy clothes and sell if for profit, they have gucci sneakers, shirts, purse etc... you can easily get comps by asking the host. They just gotta see your action, if you play like 300 a hand on a daily basis then youre good.
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Old 06-16-2018, 02:07 AM   #143
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Do tell, can you explain the math behind how you can have a realistic advantage play in baccarat? A game that by design and rules has a house advantage? And we all know about the side bets that you can make 50 cents an hour on with a $10K bankroll. Aside from those.
I've seen spots (dealer incompetence, short lived promos, etc).

That type of thing can happen in most games.

Straight game is beatable but not neccessarrily in a way that readily satisfies the spirit of your beef vs counting and the side bets.If

The guy talking about comps isn't just straight up wrong either. Everything counts. Just have to find/create spots where it adds up right...
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:32 AM   #144
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Re: Baccarat

Yeah, you claimed you could make a living at baccarat, and when challenged you walk it back and say comps are +EV and you can get some food and room discounts. That isn't "making a living" by any means.

Quote:
Originally Posted by onguard View Post
Straight game is beatable
I'm still looking for some explanation of how this can be done. If you are referring to the occasional dragon or other side bets where you sit out for hours to bet on a hand, ok, then say so. That still doesn't make it possible to make a living.
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Old 06-16-2018, 02:22 PM   #145
Tripacesdown
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Yeah, you claimed you could make a living at baccarat, and when challenged you walk it back and say comps are +EV and you can get some food and room discounts. That isn't "making a living" by any means.

.

First of all i wasn't that guy that made the claim, second of all you dont get room discounts, you get it for FREE, you pay nothing. The living here is the money you net from the comps, which can turn into cash..

wager 20-25k u get a free room, in terms of evs, you lose about 300, but with a free room you can make 700 if you sell it.

so you make 400$ a week = 1600$ a month. Now with promotion chips, i get 1K, some get more. you can turn it into cash by betting every # on the roulette table, which nets you about 800$, so total, 2400$ a month is that good enough for you???

gift shop comps, which you can easily net about 500$ more in cash, seasonal promotions, extra promo chips on major holidays+birthday = even more cash. You have to play to get all of that, and yes you can do that every month. if ur a true hustler, you can get 3K a month and more on promotional months.

ive done it for last few months I get 2.5K min every month, but i dont really need to play much since i wagered so much in the past months.
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Old 06-16-2018, 04:37 PM   #146
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Tripacesdown View Post
First of all i wasn't that guy that made the claim.
Sorry for my confusion on that, and good explanation on the comps.
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Old 06-16-2018, 04:51 PM   #147
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

The house edge could be reduced at most.
For example, say a player seated at a EZ baccarat table wagers $1000 only when a strong negative Dragon 7-fortune counting arises. Of course he's not doing the job of c.c.
Now the house egde is quite lowered and at the same time is getting a lot of value in comps according to his one grand bets.

For that matter no sound person would like to join a regular 5% vig table as the house edge here remains the same forever and ever (unless he's capable to spot possible but rare profitable situations).
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Old 06-16-2018, 05:15 PM   #148
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Do tell, can you explain the math behind how you can have a realistic advantage play in baccarat? A game that by design and rules has a house advantage? And we all know about the side bets that you can make 50 cents an hour on with a $10K bankroll. Aside from those.
I dont have to tell you how , i know a guy who make $100-200 a day playing -ev such as roulette and baccarat, it is doable and possible , what advantage play ? With 10k bankroll you cant win $100 a day ? Come on if you cant then stop gambling and get a job, any degen out there know with a 5k bankroll you can make $100 a day playing roulette let alone $10k. The only thing we are human aint no robot, We get greeedy chasing losses etc etc
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Old 06-16-2018, 05:24 PM   #149
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Re: Baccarat

You dont have to sit there for hours, just hit and run
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Old 06-16-2018, 05:52 PM   #150
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by PSG View Post
You dont have to sit there for hours, just hit and run
Ok, tell us what you do the times when you do not hit as they happen.

Actually it's just sitting there for hours (without betting) that makes beatable this game. IMO, of course.
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