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Old 02-18-2016, 11:45 AM   #1
LongDTravis
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Ace side count

Does anyone have an informtation or links to literature about using an ace side count focusing on total aces left in deck? I've started doing it in addition to basic hi/lo in a very reudimentary and rough way increasing my bets even greater when the shoe is ace rich and leaving (sitting out) once the 8th ace is out in a double deck game. We can't hit a BJ without an ace so it seems my "system" works but all my google searches hit on some kind of card sequency strategy. Links of insight would be appreciated.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:03 PM   #2
DMMx69
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Re: Ace side count

It's barely worth your time. When the count is in the ~TC0 to ~TC+4 range, it matters. When the count gets much higher than that, it doesn't make much of a difference.

Your usage of it depends on your bet sizing. What ramp are you using?
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Old 02-18-2016, 01:18 PM   #3
LongDTravis
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Re: Ace side count

I try to camoflauge but don't use a true ramp. I play double deck and increase a unit for every +1 true count. I spread from table min ($25 and my unit) to $300 or 1-12. Never any heat. Only heard of on person ever getting kicked out but he was literally the most blantant guy ever and it took them 18 months -since he quit working there- and one $32,000 month for him to get bounced.

I think that in a double deck game the ace is pretty powerful from a profit perspective but I'm pretty novice compared to a lot of you on the forum and can't back this up with statistical anaylsis.
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Old 02-19-2016, 03:13 PM   #4
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Re: Ace side count

A rough estimate is that for each "extra" ace remaining, your edge increases by about 1/4%. This is only accurate for lower TCs (up to about TC+5.)

So, if you wanted to use this, for each extra two aces left, ramp up one additional at these lower TCs. For each 2 fewer aces remaining, ramp down one additional.

This will probably increase your return by <$5/hr.
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Old 02-19-2016, 05:00 PM   #5
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Re: Ace side count

If you're not getting barred spreading 1-12 at a double deck game, either it's a terrible game or literally the best game in the world.
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Old 02-19-2016, 09:21 PM   #6
OmahaFanatical4
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Re: Ace side count

it is worth it for double deck. the most obvious application is for insurance decisions. you determine whether the deck is ace rich or ace poor (based on pene) and then adjust your insurance adjusted TC accordingly (higher for ace poor, lower for ace rich). it should also swing some close 11 doubles.


The following is speculation and my own thoughts so take it with a grain of salt, but presumably for betting you want an ace neutral situation, ceteris parbabis. since that way it is easier to hit blackjack. especially at the freak situations, where the deck is really ace rich or really ace poor, that's a bad thing (again, assuming the same true count)
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Old 02-19-2016, 09:25 PM   #7
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Re: Ace side count

there is a really fun double deck exploit. a lot of dealers flash the bottom card because they forget to use the cut card when taking the deck out of the machine. so practice at home until you can cut 10 cards in. cut 10 cards from the bottom of the deck (factor in cut card as well). if you do it properly you will be able to predict your first card on the second or third round.
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Old 02-21-2016, 10:58 PM   #8
IOWActuary
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Re: Ace side count

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
It's barely worth your time. When the count is in the ~TC0 to ~TC+4 range, it matters. When the count gets much higher than that, it doesn't make much of a difference.
Given that the TC is positive, isn't the TC in the 0-4 range like 90+% of the time?
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Old 02-22-2016, 07:14 AM   #9
OmahaFanatical4
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Re: Ace side count

with regards to insurance use +2 for every ace that isn't there. So let's say you are using hi lo and the running count is +3 with .5 decks dealt out (1.5 decks remaining). This is a +2 true count, which is a borderline insurance decision in double deck (IIRC, please do correct me if I am wrong but I believe the insurance is 2.1 for double deck). You have counted 3 aces being dealt. This is one extra ace, ergo the deck is ace poor, ergo you would use a true count of +4 for that particular insurance decision.
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:28 PM   #10
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Re: Ace side count

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Originally Posted by IOWActuary View Post
Given that the TC is positive, isn't the TC in the 0-4 range like 90+% of the time?
Probably 96% or so.

My main point was that doing this will add minimal dollars hourly given OP's game/spread. Not that it shouldn't be done, but there are probably better things to work on imo.
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Old 02-23-2016, 01:13 AM   #11
kewljason
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Re: Ace side count

I agree with DMMx69. Side counting aces w/ hi-lo, doesn't add all that much to your game. In addition it doesn't make all that much sense because the ace is already accounted for in the primary count. Almost anything you do with that 'extra' info, especially as far as betting, will have you over-compensating and likely over-betting and playing to a higher RoR than you intend. You are sort of double-dipping on the same information.

If you really are looking to improve your results by side counting aces, you should use an Ace-neutral count, although I am not a fan of that either. There are easier things you can do that make a bigger difference.

Now that said, I play hi-lo and I also side 'track' aces when playing double deck. It's not something I intended to do, but with only 8 aces, it is almost hard not to notice when they are played. But I am very conservative about what I do with this extra information, so as not to double dip on the same info that is already accounted for.

In my case, I bump up my bet slightly, one level with a moderate plus count with a couple "extra" aces remaining. I feel like I can afford to do this because I play to such a very small RoR. But perhaps the best use of this info is to adjust a couple playing decision, non more important than the insurance decision.
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Old 02-23-2016, 04:37 PM   #12
OmahaFanatical4
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Re: Ace side count

keep track of the aces alphabetically. first ace is a, second is b, all the way to h. that way you won't confuse your running count with your ace count.
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Old 02-23-2016, 04:46 PM   #13
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Re: Ace side count

I really don't see any reason to bet more simply because the deck is ace rich, since our true count is already accounting for that. I suppose the ace is slightly more valuable than the T with EOR .3 instead of .25, so there is that but I think you're better off with a harmonious mix of tens and aces than you are with a surplus or deficit of aces.
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:04 PM   #14
alwayscall
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Re: Ace side count

I'm thinking about this for 8 deck (shoe) games. I use basic Hi-Lo.

What I can do is remember how many aces are left in the deck, divided by the number of decks left in the shoe, so I start the count at 32 and go down from there, then divide.

I'd use this for betting purposes only, and at TCs of +1 to +4, to get the blackjack.

Since basic Hi-Lo already accounts for aces, how much do you think extra aces are worth on top of that?

My idea would be that if TC (including aces) is at +3, and there's still 28 aces left in the shoe, with 4 decks to go, that this is a much preferrable situation than being at TC 3 with 18 aces left in the shoe, which would be average for TC 3. I'm also looking to avoid situations where the TC is +3 but there are only 10 aces left in the shoe with 4 decks to go.

But I don't know how much aces are worth over and above the TC for basic Hi-Lo, which counts aces as being worth the same as 10s. I'm under the impression that aces should be worth more than 10s, but I don't know by how much. However, the Zen Count values tens as being twice as valuable as aces, so I'm confused.

Last edited by alwayscall; 03-26-2017 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:33 PM   #15
Tom Ames
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Re: Ace side count

Way too much work for very little gain in an 8-deck game. Just widen your betting spread a little. Or find a better game.
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:47 PM   #16
alwayscall
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Re: Ace side count

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Originally Posted by Tom Ames View Post
Way too much work for very little gain in an 8-deck game. Just widen your betting spread a little. Or find a better game.
But what is the actual advantage? If I know that then I can determine whether it's worth it to do it or not

DMMx69 said above that in two deck games, each extra ace is worth 0.25%, if I understood that correctly, that was over and above what it's worth for the Hi-Lo count. But that would be too much, right? Because each TC in Hi-Lo is worth 0.5%, right? So that would mean that aces/decks would be worth about 0.75% to 1% each in total, which would be huge.

Also I'm confused by the Zen Count. If it values 10s as being worth twice as much as an Ace, does that mean that the 10 is actually more valuable than the Ace? Or does it just use the Ace as a way to counterbalance the 7s?

What I would like to know is, assuming before we start the game I can remove any number of cards I want, for each 10 missing from an 8-deck shoe, how much edge am I losing? And how much am I losing for each ace I remove? From those numbers I can calculate how much the ace-rich shoes are worth, and if that value is positive or negative and I should instead prefer ace depleted decks given the same TC.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:01 PM   #17
borg23
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Re: Ace side count

in double deck in can be quite useful

i'd also love to know what paradise lets you spread 1-12 in double deck without kicking you out
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