Quote:
Originally Posted by DrawningFish
Here is another bad one from me.On the turn I basically knew he is really strong because of the size on the bet and put him on a chop or nut straight.Usually i would not want to call 3rd street pot size just for chop but my hand looked pretty strong just to fold it so i decided to see river and lead every peared board to fold him out of chop or the nut straight.Do you think it was a good try or it is too much.Also what about the sizing?
so i'll just start with this one, since it looks like it's been a while since you've posted (if you're still active i'd be happy to talk about the other hands as well). my sim work may be slightly off, so sorry if that's the case, but it should at least be of some help.
according to a fairly suitable sim, ATo is almost a pure fold (90%) on the flop, but we should usually call with ATs with a bdfd, so we can look at that when considering the turn situation, as it is at least similar. in case you're curious, solver flop calling range would be roughly this:
on the turn facing the 21 ante bet from co, we can call with your ATs hands (again, we shouldn't have ATo because that's a fold on the flop, with a ~10% raise otherwise - in any case not a call), except ATs with a fd, which wants to xr @ 100%.
the river is i guess the biggest mistake, it's a pure check (in short deck and even long deck that's very often the case, playing oop sucks). ATs with the turned flush draw does xc a ~75% river bet all the time, but the other combos only call a bit less than 25% of the time. the problem is that villain's larger sizing betting range (presuming we had checked instead of shoving) shouldn't include ANY hands that we're ahead of, in fact the only bluff the solver finds in the sim i ran was a small frequency of QJs with the turned fd. i think as played we're best off checking the river and hoping opponent bets smaller so that we can pick off bluffs. if we are taking a more exploitative line i think hands that block full houses or the nut straight and don't have much showdown value (KQ/QJ/J9) would be better candidates to bluff with.