Hey PocketDucks
It sounds like you were starting with the idea that:
Limit (of expected prize per individual challenge) -> approaches EV ... as the number of individual challenges ran approaches 100k
Here there's only 15 individual challenges though, so one would expect most peoples prizes to be far less than EV for a top-heavy prize pool distribution after only 15 challenges. Since only a select few will run lucky, with that few runs ... so it does seem like most people should be making less than even half of EV over just 15 challenges?
It looks like with your last post you're assuming a 100% ITM rate for people who win shoot-out tickets. But usually the shoot-outs have been a second step of a short-run of top-heavy prize awards, with most people not winning any money. There'd be nothing to shoot out for, if everybody was just being awarded an equal percent of the prize pool.
Think these promos are targeted at people who overestimate the potential payout and underestimate the potential cost. But guess that's poker, so ...
PS. Didn't add enough $5 prizes to the Gold payout - it looks like most people should be averaging about $32, with average luck? And you can include an extra $2 in the Silver if you wish ... so that would bring it up to $9.90. Anyways, guess was just noticing that EV measure might tend to overestimate the mostly likely outcome for most people, when distributions are heavily skewed, with limited runs, or something like that? It seems like we both agree on that?
Anyways, looks like it's back to one-tabling tourneys for me
Last edited by TrustySam; 02-14-2016 at 05:18 PM.