Wheres those GOLD bugs now? - Page 14 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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Wheres those GOLD bugs now?

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08-12-2008 , 07:34 AM

#326

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

I'm short gold in size through GLD options and DZZ.

Quote

08-12-2008 , 09:22 AM

#327

Zygote

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 5,740

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

I'm short gold in size through GLD options and DZZ.

Robbie: [takes a deep breath, sighs] Gee, you know that information... really would've been more useful to me [yells] *YESTERDAY*

Quote

08-12-2008 , 09:38 AM

#328

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zygote

Robbie: [takes a deep breath, sighs] Gee, you know that information... really would've been more useful to me [yells] *YESTERDAY*

lol...yeah yeah....i posted it because i still love the trade even after this move...i think gold sees $650 shortly.

Quote

08-12-2008 , 10:21 AM

#329

binions

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 3,169

If you overlay a chart of Gold on the Euro measured in dollars ($XEU which is 100 x price of Euro in dollars), the correlation is uncanny over the last 2.5 years. Since January of 2006, the price of gold divided by $XEU has ranged from 4.4 to 6.4 with a standard deviation of ~0.5.

Compare gold divided by a barrel of oil, which as ranged from a ratio of 6.5:1 to 12:1 over that same period.

It will be interesting to see if the gold/$XEU correlation holds long term.

Last edited by binions; 08-12-2008 at 10:33 AM.

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08-12-2008 , 10:29 AM

#330

The Don

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

lol...yeah yeah....i posted it because i still love the trade even after this move...i think gold sees $650 shortly.

You willing to give action on this?

Quote

08-12-2008 , 10:46 AM

#331

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

You willing to give action on this?

Always.

Propose a timeline, terms (ie hit once or stay below for x days or close below), and amount.

Quote

08-12-2008 , 10:50 AM

#332

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

I laughed at this, from the Gartman letter:

"Spot Gold in one minute intervals: We thought there would be a bounce from $850, but we honestly thought it might be a bit longer than half an hour and that it might be a bit more than $5/oz. No prisoners were taken; none wished to be."

It shows a 1 minute chart from 8/8 through 8/12. Gold fell of a cliff going from $885 to $805.

Quote

08-12-2008 , 11:27 AM

#333

APXG

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 669

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

You willing to give action on this?

just sell some options. or is it the usual penis-contest?

Quote

08-12-2008 , 11:52 AM

#334

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by APXG

just sell some options. or is it the usual penis-contest?

I dont think bionomial and other exotic options trade on gold so there are things we could bet on not covered by an option contract (but of course could still be hedged).

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08-13-2008 , 08:56 AM

#335

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

You willing to give action on this?

I see that you signed on yesterday and didnt respond.

No interest?

Quote

08-13-2008 , 01:24 PM

#336

The Don

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

I'm definitely interested... what is your definition of 'shortly'? Is close below 650 by the end of september acceptable? I'm thinking ~4 ounces of gold by the end of the bet as the amount.

Feel free to make a counter-proposal.

Last edited by The Don; 08-13-2008 at 01:37 PM.

Quote

08-13-2008 , 01:27 PM

#337

The Don

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by APXG

just sell some options. or is it the usual penis-contest?

Peen obv

Quote

08-13-2008 , 01:37 PM

#338

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

I'm definitely interested... what is your definition of 'shortly'? Is close below 650 by the end of september acceptable? I'm thinking ~4 ounces of gold by the end of the bet as the amount.

You want me to bet gold falls 20% in 45 days at negative odds?

Buying deep OOTM puts, the market is offering me 20:1 for the same bet.

This site is really full of morons. I dont know why i try.

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08-13-2008 , 03:11 PM

#339

Watchmaker

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,856

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

lol...yeah yeah....i posted it because i still love the trade even after this move...i think gold sees $650 shortly.

Are your thoughts regarding gold specifically, or are they pertinent to metals across the board?

Quote

08-13-2008 , 03:18 PM

#340

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by Watchmaker

Are your thoughts regarding gold specifically, or are they pertinent to metals across the board?

Across the board - but especially gold because of ETF structuring and usage.

Quote

08-13-2008 , 04:00 PM

#341

The Don

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

I have no idea what you mean by 'shortly' and gold is absurdly volatile, 20% in either direction isn't out of the question... propose an offer.

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08-13-2008 , 04:00 PM

#342

The Don

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

USD denominated is fine as well

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08-13-2008 , 04:07 PM

#343

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

I have no idea what you mean by 'shortly' and gold is absurdly volatile, 20% in either direction isn't out of the question... propose an offer.

Please dont waste my time defending your ridiculous offer at negative odds what I could put out in the market and receive 20:1. Thats a joke and I'm wasting my time with this.

To give you an example, I could right now receive 4:1 betting that gold hits $650 before year end.

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08-13-2008 , 04:21 PM

#344

Watchmaker

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,856

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

Across the board - but especially gold because of ETF structuring and usage.

Any thoughts on the impact SLV has had on silver?

I read that in addition to futures contracts, they've denominated the fund with 200m ounces of physical, which is like 1/2 of the entire global demand complex for industrial uses (or, 100% of 2007's annual demand by the electronics sector).

Quote

08-13-2008 , 05:30 PM

#345

TeddyBender

banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 388

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim

Don't know if I qualify as a fanatical bug, but I'm still bullish longterm. In fact, I predicted in one of these threads that we would pull back to ~$900 before ultimately going much higher.

omfg where did u fid your avatar

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08-13-2008 , 10:31 PM

#346

The Don

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

You said 'you think you see gold hitting 650 shortly'... usually when people see something happening they at least think it's a greater than 50% chance. I kindly ask you to rescind that comment.

Quote

08-13-2008 , 10:44 PM

#347

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

You said 'you think you see gold hitting 650 shortly'... usually when people see something happening they at least think it's a greater than 50% chance. I kindly ask you to rescind that comment.

I do think theres is a greater than 50% chance, but that doesnt mean I would accept odds less than the market is offering.

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08-15-2008 , 09:32 AM

#348

john kane

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Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,146

i wouldnt like to be silver's butthole today.

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08-15-2008 , 09:47 AM

#349

Zygote

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 5,740

Quote:

Originally Posted by john kane

i wouldnt like to be silver's butthole today.

i stopped out at just over $14 but when i looked updated the quote i had to rub my eyes a couple times. I reentered silver in 12.70s, would've like to have gotten in a bit earlier but wasnt around, but in any case, ive moved almost all my portfolio in to this position besides my long term debt shorts. Few things have as much potential and the bargain is just too good to bother with anything else IMO.

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08-15-2008 , 10:00 AM

#350

john kane

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,146

wish i had some liquid money right now as id be betting heavily on silver as well long term.

getting very worried by my gold busto limit of $750. at least i was lucky enough to almost half my position at $915 or so a couple of days before freefall. maybe my selling decision was leaked.

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