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Originally Posted by Henry17
respect to winning the natural lottery and being either born in the western world or even just being born to privilege that is a straw man argument. Being born to privilege just means that we measure success relative to your starting point rather than in an absolute sense. With respect to being born in Africa we just change the definition of success where we substitute local alternatives such as access to fresh food, a car, a bigger mud hut whatever.
So your measuring success as what you achieve under your circumstances correct?
bad circumstances=bad luck...
well by that definition I agree success has nothing to do with luck.
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Originally Posted by Henry17
People who believe luck is a significant factor are just trying to rationalize their own lack of success by attributing success to a force that is not under their agency.
Thats cause definitions are confused and you using SIGNIFICANT factor is confusing cause by your definition it has zero factor.
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Originally Posted by Henry17
claim that the IPod catching on was a matter of luck is funny. The reason the IPod caught on is because it was the best product. It was the best product because of appealing design and a new great interface. Those were all deliberate decisions and have nothing to do with luck.
Also by your definition using billionaires as success examples is confusing cause wealth although correlated has nothing to do with success.
Also so what if the decisions were deliberate what matters is how would he rank to other people in his shoes for all we know he could be below EV in that aspect ranking him worse than most people IOW unsuccessful.
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Originally Posted by Henry17
problem with the luck reasoning is that people always point to well if event X didn't happen so-and-so would never have become whatever as X was the defining moment that set everything in motion. What they fail to realize is that in the vast majority of cases if X had not happened Y would have happened and had the same role. Success is based on your choices.
quoted back a page "if 10,000 people play Russian roulette 70 years later handful millionaires etc...
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the truly successful people I know if stripped of everything would be able to restart from nothing and establish themselves in a matter of years.
So even if they rank high on your success rating there is 0 variance? But what if they get into real estate