Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePLOGrinder
So you think holding cash is a good move? What if a crash does not happen for 10 years and the crash then leaves the market higher than current levels?
You are trying to time the market, quickest way to go broke!
I partly agree.
If you keep trying to time the stock market every single day will you will keep racking up fees and you will get a very poor result investing.
But, everybody times the market to some extent. For example, if you want to buy a house in your neighborhood and it's absolutely beautiful, it's still not worth an infinite price. If you were thinking rationally you would look at the amount of rent you could get out of the property over a 40 year period and compare it to how much the property is selling for and then you would decide whether it's an attractive investment or not. Saying well I better buy now because what about if the price doubles isn't thinking rationally. That's chasing a bubble which eventually pops.
Over the last decade interest rates were zero and it pushed stock prices, housing prices, bitcoin etc to very high levels as people chased yield. My opinion is that inflation is going to be a much bigger problem than people realise over the next decade and that will cause asset prices to fall as the Fed hikes rates.
In the 1970s the last time there was terrible inflation the stock market went down 38 percent in 1971, 50 percent in 1974 and 35 percent in 1982. There were massive falls and massive rallies but holders got killed in real terms as they were stuck in a range and inflation eviscerated the value of their savings.
That's the kind of environment I think we are going to be in. I could be wrong. Nothing is a guarantee. But that's what I am betting on. People will be amazed at how cheap stock prices get. And if I'm wrong and you hold cash in a money market fund you are still getting a 5 percent yield. It's not the end of the world.
Last edited by Maximus122; 05-19-2023 at 07:52 AM.