You are overlooking the possibility of Musk building the model 420 that runs on greenoline .

I know what you're describing is supposed to be bad, but it sounds so good ....

So what's the upshot? Small growers are only viable until legalization is widespread? ... I totally agree with you on farmers and scale and money and $70,000 pickups. ... but I think it's a long way from federal legalization, to that.

If and when it is federally ok, I don't think there's going to be no restrictions. I would think growers will still need to be licensed. There will be some controls there.

Why would what I described be bad? Plentiful, dirt cheap, weed grown by professionals with the resources, equipment and scale to grow more weed than we can consume is all good. Who doesn't want $5 ounces?


Yes. Unless the small growers carve out a specialty artisan type niche (similar to microbrews competing with Budweiser) they'll definitely go bust.

The only people who'll be hurt by widespread legalization are the hippie stoners who've been charging $500/oz and the illegal drug dealers.

Of course there'll always be tight restrictions, but tighter restrictions and a higher barrier to entry benefits the largest producers. It's not as if the licenses that are being issued in year one are the only licenses that'll ever be issued. Wait until the farm, tobacco, and alcohol lobbies decide they want to take over the industry.

There is an inevitable (beneficial for the consumer) race to the bottom once full legalization happens. Producers, processors, distributors and governments will all steadily lower prices in competition to retain their market share.

Fox Business: WH will tackle marijuana regulation after midterms

Maybe Trump looks at Canada and all the investment there and goes all the way...

Is that just me dreaming? Any way-chance that happens?

Here's two articles which seem very good.

The Current State Of Cannabis: Bubble Or Blazin' Opportunity?


Investing In Canadian Cannabis: A Brief Primer

Trump himself probably isn't opposed to it. But he is surrounded by GOP nutjobs who most certainly would advise him against legalizing it federally.

I think this understates the financial opportunities and pressure from business interests. Canada is full legal, Mexico is looking a it ... I see no chance the US just says, "Yah, you guys go ahead and take a few years headstart with those markets ..."

I want to trade on this idea. ^^ It's a gamble, but there are significant events coming up that I think are likely to drive interest in the marijuana market.

I am willing to take on high levels of risk, though my available cash for investment is modest. I am a very unsophisticated investor. Trading stocks/ETFs and basic options.

My thinking is long calls on the marijuana-focused ETF MJ.

MJ Apr 18 2019 50 Call @~$1.60
MJ Jan 17 2020 50 Call @~$4.00

Someone suggested long calls on Canopy, but to be frank those trade a little rich for me.

CGC Apr 18 2019 50 Call @~$11

Looking to gamble.

So what are some plays if America legalized federally? A lot of stocks mentioned itt are Canadian.

yes

MPX is my favorite American. Multi-state. There are a lot of good potentials though.

American stocks I'm in, in order of what I like: MPXEF, TCNNF, Ianthus (forgot ticker), TGIFF.

TCNFF is an interesting american play because they have the highest revenue in the country, and almost no float (Tilray?). However, they are only in one state (Florida). They are dominating Florida though.

Couple short takes on the other ones:

MPXEF in multiple states, killing it in Arizona and seems like aggressive with expanding.
TGIFF does well in the markets they are in but don't seem very aggressive and so may not expand rapdily.

I think the key in the States is getting licenses in multiple states.

Florida, where TCNNF is, only has 14 current licenses, will be 18 soon I think. California has thousands of licenses. So the Florida market artificially limits competition.

The U.S. market is much more confusing. Laws vary state to state as far as access and legality, the number of licenses varies, and there's the federal situation. Plus, will the Canadian companies with a head start be able to come in?

currently in ACB, EMC, and Canopy Rivers. Curious as to whether there'll be a bit of a dip on wedn.

JKC, ianthus is an interesting play. Are they the only trade available with a NY license?

Longed acbff and tgodf around the same price a few weeks ago mid 6's, and they been trending in opposite directions ever since. tgodf purchase so underwater james cameron wants to explore it

They've had a run of bad news. I ditched them but not before losing a shirt or two. No (rec) supply agreements and Aurora doesn't want their stock ... they're basically two steps behind everyone else, not even growing yet. ... I still think they're a good buy, long-term, and may buy them again but apparently their price isn't going to jump any time soon.

I think the news today was the medical sales agreement, balanced against Aurora selling some shares in TOGD ... and a ****ty day for pot stocks overall after yesterday's blast.

Why would there be a dip? You're not the 1st person I've seen thinking despite legalization tomorrow the stocks will drop.

Buy the rumour sell the news. I've been gossiping for two years and maaaaybe give myself a C- for how much I've profited off it.

Realistically what good news could even come out tomorrow? I think the profits will be pretty great but those numbers don't come back that fast. If a few websites get swamped or broken or a few provinces aren't up to snuff then you'll see a few panicked retailers selling their 50-500% profits for the short term.

Long term I think these stocks are going to print money but it's not the first time that a big news event or release could cause something to drop after massive hype.

Oh I've also bought SHOP on its recent dip. They're the ones running Ontario's website.

Also Med Men and Acreage. I don't think Acreage has IPO yet. I read Green Thumb is trying to get a license in New York. Not sure if it has happened yet.

So Med Men and Green Thumb are two New York plays.

These have been my thoughts for months. No good news can come post legalization imo. I think huge demand and tons of revenue are priced in.

What may not be priced in is all the hiccups we know are coming. Aphria CEO has already hinted at them. Supply chain stuff, not enough skilled workers to harvest crop, crop damage, etc.

But, people have been saying for months now that this is going to be sell the news... which has me starting to think the other way...

Looks like people sold the news. But LOL at selling when these companies are going to expand next year. Maybe it's a mini bubble but I wouldn't think the bubble would be until end of next year.

Flash sale going on right now.

Stocks back up after my post. Medmen had a big announcement as well.

Trump replacing Sessions is going to be another big boost when that inevitably occurs.

Website going strong still. A couple varieties look sold out in certain sizes. I hear the quality is meh but I can't confirm that yet.

Where I live in Alberta where were 2-3 hour lines outside stores. Estimate of full day sales at one of the bigger stores in Edmonton was $120,000

**** I remember when ppl were laughing at CGC's 600 million market cap. Well over 100k orders today in Ontario?! And this is with tons of ppl already having medical cards?

This is before ads have even really started. Or edibles. Or drinkables. Oh goodness.