Stz is distancing themselves from cgc pretty hard. Even had notes about their financials less cgc to show how hard those numbers are ****ing them. It's an interesting situation with the ousted CEO.

I kind of agree about the south American weed. I smoked some of the best Colombia had to offer when I was there. It was trash. The weed from Cali/Colorado is pure science. I would assume it's the same in Canada. There is something to be said about cheap weed you can blunt all day and still function, but I really don't think that's what most people want from their high

Beyond that, canada is obsessed with quality for medical. It's not like the stuff is that expensive anyway. Canada on it's own has enough capacity to drive prices way down. Someone will win that game though.

Tbh I haven't followed stz/cgc closely but did they kick out the ceo then distance themselves? If you're gonna let it burn why not leave the guy with a plan in charge?

If you mean compared to other farmed commodities, than no. But, other farmed commodities have traditionally had terrible profit margins. I'm not sure why marijuana would be different, except that it's quasi legal.

The amount of weed being grown is staggering, and the large producers haven't even begun growing it yet.

Guys the people starting many of these operations in South America are from Colorado (and Canada). They bring their methods and their seeds. But even still, the big market here is producing CBD isolate. That's the one most of them are going to get into, and it's the biggest future market in the whole game.

As for "want their high from", again only medical is getting imported into Canada. So the qualities of a medical product are quite different. Even still, again it's American and Canadian pros going down to start these shops and get rich (or die trying).

It's not just that either. These touted foreign markets for Canadian and American LP's to export to, that's gone man. Nobody's buying those marked up products globally within 5 years. This is like China making plastic rubbish and electronics. That's South America, for weed. And prob Asia won't be far behind.

It's been obvious the entire time south America would grow stuff at some point and it would be cheap. I guess that's more of a question of how these companies got 2 billion valuation knowing this would happen.

Hype.

I was probably the first canopy owner on this site. I also sold way too early. I sold based on valuation which in hindsight is such a stupid thing to do in hot sectors like dot.com era, crypto, etc...

You sell the media frenzy, and I won't make that mistake again. My guess is AI will be the next time I'll get that chance.

But now with the hype gone, the cold hard numbers are what matters. And they aren't great.

What do you think the Canadian companies are worth?

APHA earnings tomorrow should be interesting, options pricing an almost 25% move, historically options haven't priced much movement in for weed earnings

Could be at an inflection point

I think aphria is unlikely to report a profit again but will report very good sales. Not sure how stock reacts.

I want to know who was buying cgc at $55.

I bought some apha calls for the gambol, mostly 4 and 4.50s, but a few as high as 5.5.

Sold all my puts Thursday, or whatever day it was, after everything tanked 10%. Wasn't really expecting things to keep free falling. Oops. I guess we just keep sliding until something happens with regulation, which could be years and years the way legislation goes

Thought about aph calls. Bought stock.

I'm not really qualified to say. I'm having a hard time deciding what the Canadian market is worth, because the rollouts have been so bad all over. I don't know what the conservatives might do if they win for example. Obviously pot stays, but who knows beyond that. We may be back at the polls in less than 2 years if Justin can't get a working coalition together. Lord knows they won't get their majority.

I don't know which provinces are going to want to push for more CBD and less opioids. I don't know what will be allowed with cosmetics, edibles, beverages, etc... You guys look into what CBD cosmetics sell for? Omg the margins.

Because with flowers, the black market is going to continue to dominate. The amount of people I know growing on their own farms and properties now is staggering. So because the growing laws are mostly so lax, the black market will keep eating at the legal market for flowers. Specially because the black market product is often far better! Plus now you can drive around with a brick of weed in your car and face almost no repercussions. Dealing has never been easier for someone with half a brain.

But edibles, cosmetics, oils, medical, beverages, that's all less obvious for the black market. Particularly medical where having tax receipts, lab testing, etc. is so valuable.

At my last visit to the dr who handles my prescription, they told me there are now 125 LP's in Canada, and growing. Meanwhile in my city of a million people, there are 3 legal stores. THREE! Those are the people making all the money. Those independent retail stores that won lotteries and got permits in the early years, those folks made a killing.

The rollout has definitely been horrible. I expect the legal market to eventually take over though... as long as it stays legal.

Rollout of medical in u.s. so much smoother.

Aphria guidance of a billion in sales next year seems far fetched especially with health Canada taking 8 months to approve diamond... but even if they hit half that. Their market cap is 1 billion and they have like 500 million cash, close to profitable. Not sure why I wouldn't value then at 5x sales... should be a growth company.

Pretty sure APHA is capped lower than their book, currently

They just posted profit again. They have the most healthy financials in Canada and most of the same deals in the pipeline as cgc. They just lack a stz.

I think it's going to run up over the next couple of days. Those were some pretty solid numbers.

The only thing I see in there that's concerning is very small increase in q o q Canadian rec sales. Black market must be sticky... or they are losing share... both no good obviously.

It's a combination of prices, quality and availability.

The stores are too few and too expensive.

The legal websites are meh and the product is meh.

The overall product across most of the LP's is OK. Their oil is great, flower lags. And obviously edibles is the big market and its not legal yet.

The one thing they really did with this bad rollout was give the grey/black market too much of a head start. People know they can try it now, so they're trying it from all over. When the grey market is so cheap and such good quality, it's tough to imagine people coming back for $13 grams again.

I think the red tape they covered this with really killed them. The amount of money wasted for the red tape is really oppressive.

They'll eventually overcome all that though, right ?

For the medical market, yes. The tax receipt is important to the patient. Anyone wanting to get on an eventual work health plan (that'll come) is going through legal too.

On the rec side, tourists and such will totally feed the legal market obviously. And all the casual people too. In stores here they're flooded with seniors trying it for pain for the first time, it's wild. But I think seasoned smokers honestly don't participate in this current system and they're a big part of the volume (one of the biggest). Then you have the fact that most homes can grow plants (a silly amount too) and the self grow kits are getting cheaper. Millennials might be pretty keen on a plant on the tiny patio of their 600 sq ft apt they can already barely afford.

And then you've got the threat from product coming online globally in all these other cheaper markets, and the 125+ LPs count and growing in Canada.

So when you say "they'll eventually overcome all that", I'd say no, most of them won't. Many of them will, and it's probably too late to write a post all about figuring out who those are. But the short version is I'd be looking at who is developing THC sleeping pills (I make my own), THC+CBD anxiety meds, CBD makeup, pain creams and rubs, and on down that list. The players who do that to me are going to be the most disruptive, along with whomever has the best medical flower and oil.

Ironically Canntrust had the best medical product (I've tried most with my issues), and they ****ed that up. The sickest part is they gotta destroy 77m in weed now. Tragic.

Funny enough, this would be one of the big saviors for the sector. This would actually be so disruptive across so many stocks. If well thought out you could make a fortune playing this rollout. If they can do it.

https://business.financialpost.com/t...le-spend-money

Well, that was short lived, APHA down almost 9% already. Was tempted to buy some based on the numbers from yesterday but guess we just keep on plunging forever

People are just too invested imho. The people who loved it already have almost everything in it. Seems like this leg down is a better short than it is a chance to accumulate.