I bought some CGC. I had sold 90% of my shares between 45 and 55.... but at $29, with constellation and acreage. Seems like an ok spot to start a position. Still valued at 10B though...

I don't like the canadian companies in general, but CGC has acreage.

Aurora sold its remaining stake in TGOD, @ ~$3 Canadian. 28M shares, apprx. They went to a mix of banks, apparently: BMO, CIBC, RBC, others.

So .... on the one hand, that sucks. The deal went at about a 15% discount to the closing share price yesterday.

A mix of bull thoughts I've read online for TGOD:

• Aurora needed the money.
• TGOD has rid itself of that off take agreement, meaning they no longer sell 20% of their product at a discount.
• TGOD's % institutional investors rise significantly.
• No more fears of another open market sell-off by Aurora (apparently this was done with a much smaller block of shares in the past.
• Helps position TGOD for a partnership.

Bear thoughts:

• TGOD share price will drop on this news
• Aurora will push the $86M into Whistler, competing directly with TGOD on organic
• TGOD will come online during a supply glut and wont sell its cannabis

Everyone knows I'm long TGOD, just trying to share the information I've seen. This news doesn't seem to have any impact on the long-term outlook for the company: they just planted in the larger Hamilton space, NASDAQ uplist application was a few weeks ago, product in stores, hemp harvest coming, market heading into edibles.

Also, Aurora scheduled their call:

Interesting situation. 85 million is no small chunk of change, and Aurora is down 50% the last 6 months. They could easily need the cash, and they are claiming an irr of 50% on the investment, so it's not like they are fire selling. Still, 15% discount seems pretty cheap considering this should be a potential growth stock.

If they are planning on going into direct competition with this then this could serve to hurt tgods credibility moving forward, as well as letting them move the money from the sale into competitive areas.

This was trending nicely until this. I'm going to add to the position and expect it to creep back up over the coming weeks

Starting to think about CGC. Added a little bit at like $27, 10% of what I'd be willing to do if it dropped to $15 or something.

Does anyone have a good handle on Canadian LP's ability to export?

The #1 dig I hear on TGOD is that they are so late they wont be able to sell their product amidst a glut and falling prices. I don't believe that for a few reasons, but. ... Can they, and other LPs, export?

Their investor deck says that's coming Q4. I know they're looking at Germany and Mexico.

In a lot of cases it seems to be about acquiring licenses in those other countries.

That's a lot of why CGC is so hyped, they have so many licenses and contracts. They'll end up buying the product from other people who focused on production capacity and then sell it using their contracts & licenses that the others don't have.

Aurora reported. The actual numbers seem good, but they missed their revenue guidance.

Cannabis revenues up 61% to $94.6M, edging closer to profitability. Except they previously said they'd be profitable this quarter (walked back when they gave the guidance they missed).

Stock down 8%~ after hours it looks like, but who knows. The company seems to be executing, margins stable, growing sales, heading into cannabis 2.0.

I don't own any ACB but it seems to be the new sector bellwether. One analyst I follow said that if they had not missed their own guidance the report would look very good. That seems right to me.

I'm interested to see if they are asked about TGOD in their call this morning.

As for that:

Rough times for TGOD shareholders but it looks like this may be done. I worry/wonder if the stock decline can put the uplist in danger; initial research says yes if SP were to remain below $2(US).

ACB prolly has more downside. Worth waiting until under $5 imo although there does seem to be a lot of support around $5.7

i think marijuana stocks are going down big time and it's pretty obvious i.e. not rocket science..... overvalued, and alot of locked up stock coming free. that's what actually killed the 2000 internet stock bubble, although eventually something else would have.

aurora is down now on a very consistent basis. i want to say it's down every day i check. probably not true but it seems like it.

anyway, that's not why i posted.

Globe and Mail, canada's best business newspaper, had an interesting quant feature today. it showed stocks with the highest borrowing costs. i.e highest cost to short... i had no idea there were high borrowing costs. i just knew that often you can't borrow at all... anyway, it showed 3 marijuana stocks with borrowing costs between 20% and 30% per annum (and that's on top of dividends, if marijuana stocks have any - i doubt it but i don't know for sure)...

anyway, so it would be crazy to own some of these marijuana stocks without getting the short borrowing fee. and i'm guess joe public accounts like us never see those fees.

anyway, that seems to suggest almost for sure these stocks have a long way to fall.. they may be good investments but from a much lower level.

i'll find the quant feature. i think canopy was on the list, but not aurora.

jesssus, i hadn't even checked today when i posted my comment...

aurora down 6+% today........ down 35% in last 3 weeks, and gradually, which doesn't make that sense, unless insider stock is coming out in droves. (note i don't know that factually)

basically, same idea as the G&M article i mentioned. this article is a bit old.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sh...all-2019-08-01

note that this info is from beginning of august 2019,

The most expensive stock borrows are Tilray, which has a small float and comes with a 41.32% fee; Aphria APHA, -2.31% APHA, -2.62% with a 41.12% fee, Aurora with a 26.12% fee and Canopy with a 25.87% fee.

Those high financing costs and the extreme price volatility in the sector have not acted as a deterrent for shorts.

“Single name short squeezes do not look to be in any of these top 20 stocks’ near-term future,” said Dusaniwsky. “July’s sector price weakness has minimized year-to-date losses and emboldened Cannabis short sellers to continue selling stock.”

All those numbers are well below the true borrow costs. If you want to get long a stock you should do it synthetically in the options by selling a deep in the money put and buying the same strike call. In TLRY for instance you'd get paid $2 to hold the long position through the end of the year.

I'm done shorting this ****.

Still buying itm monthlies on cgc, tlry, acb, and apha

starting to accumulate long

Jesus, tgod got brutalized. Big bummer there

Have had some real interesting talks with people who think canopy could go busto. Not sure I want to get into it today, too much to do. But the basis is the idea that all the growers in South America are planting like mad. Workers paid 1$ USD an hour, endless free sun and water. It's gonna be a super tough long term environment for the growers up north.

I had honestly not heard the full story of how Bruce Linton's coup had happened. Nasty. He's doing stuff with Ruckify now. Guess he's a zillionaire with his canopy equity anyway.

I'll read in here and catch up. Have not touched the space in months. Sounds like I didn't miss much long?

But basically this is like the very start of the price collapse. This is gonna keep happening



I'd only invest in players who are gonna do specialized products like creams and cosmetics now. Those markups still fat. Oils too potentially if they're specialized. And I guess we'll see what edibles brings.

Yeah. I don't know wtf to think.

Everything is getting ****ed. But TGOD ... repost from an analyst chat I'm in:

Struggling to figure out what to do with TGOD. Clearly, things have gone very badly. I had a high degree of confidence in management, given the strong CPG background, but that hasn't manifested in any appreciable way. I recognize the subtleties of getting financing "on their terms" but at the same time feel misled as an investor. ... what kind of outcomes are on the table?

I do still believe organic cannabis has a place in the market, and in particular in beverages and edibles. And TGOD ... lol, still seems undervalued. But of course, I said that @ $2.50, also.

But the company's silence is deafening. They have so many opportunities and projects, why no news? The NASDAQ uplist, I assume that's dead. No word from Poland. No updates from Jamaica.

So much dissonance. Management says nothing has change; share price says ... oof. Probably a month out from their earnings call. The CEO has scheduled an interview today to discuss financing, but obv that's a damage control softball event. Maybe the kind of thing they'd have been better off scheduling for Tuesday, not Thursday. (though I assume it was not scheduled at all, before the stock price took a dive)

maybe time to cut bait, I dunno. If I hear one more person call bottom ....

APHA is an interesting long into earnings. They have the best financials of all the pot stocks and have gotten hit just as hard as anyone by the sector erosion. If they are able to report growth while maintaining a profit it could be a huge pop.

IIPR is still fading. I continue to hold it and can't find any major reason for the continued selling other than it was just overvalued.

Dividend yield is back over 4% at $76 a share. Seeing guidance of over $3 EPS and great sales growth. 25 times forward EPS. Seems way overvalued on price to sales like 12 X sales (lol what) but sales growth is 80% so whatever. I guess there isn't much comparative valuation you can do as I don't know of any main competitors.

I've held a tiny bit of CGC and APHA just on the premise it trades below that takeout offer months ago and could get taken out or turnaround.

I think we haven't seen the worst because people accumulating all these "cheap" shares means people are super overextended. I think we could see legit slaughter.

You'll know when it's time when the headlines read like murder. It's not time.

I started adding some cgc. Another 40% drop and itll be where I originally bought in.

Oversupply definitely a big concern but is that unique to this market?

It is a big reason I like the east coast limited license states. Trulieve.

Canopy valuation very high but stz invested a ton in them at a price over 50% higher than this.

Health canada takes a year to approve a grow facility in Canada. Letting tons outdoor grown product from south America be sold in canada is inconsistent with that. Will it even be good product ?