rip

Rip is up, that was a drill

/s

I bought puts on YOLO a few days ago. It's portfolio is pure **** outside of iipr, and even that might be in a huge bubble. Not sure of a price target, but down until there is some positive sector new

These canadian companies are a joke. I stopped buying and switched to US when I started realizing this but also only sold a piece of what I owned.

CGC and ACB massive capital burn so that CGC had their CEO fired.
Aphria sketchy.
Canntrust may have their licensed revoked and go to 0.

All have big regulation headwinds.

Those are the big 3.5.

TGOD lawsuit.


Getting tough, keeping the faith. ... Still, I don't see anything changed fundamentally and harvests about to start coming in. ... Still ....

Also, today I found a small dividend from TGODF in my account. It was tiny. $4. I own more than 15k shares, for reference.

If this relates to the Spinco ex dividend date, I owned closer to 5k shares then.

Aphria just posted strong earnings--profitable, 158% growth in rec sales. Nice.

I gambled on some aph calls this morning lol

It's almost like pot is mooning off that aphria earnings lol

Proved that canadian MJ companies can make a profit. How long before cgc shows that ?

TGOD files to uplist to NASDAQ

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...832829978.html

Now they just need to advertise to Robinhood users

Anyone doing anything with Canntrust?

At this point Canntrust just seems like a bet on if you think their license gets revoked or not. I have no idea the odds on that so no idea what to do.

TGOD earnings tomorrow.

TGOD earnings seems like a Rorsarch test.

Revenues of $2.9 million, up 20%, almost all coming from Hempoland.
Net loss of $16.6 million.

They spent a lot of money: cash dropped from $215M at Jan. 1, $174M in Q2 to $69M now. More than $100M of that, so far this year, has gone towards Valleyfield construction.

If you wanted to see bigger revenues (I was definitely hoping for more) then maybe this looks disappointing. OTOH, 20% QoQ growth from Europe isn't bad, either. TGOD bought that for less than $19M.

Overall, past any disappointment about revenues, seems like the company is continuing to execute. They began commercial production this Q in the 2nd phase of Hamilton, Valleyfield is almost done, and the CEO says they "now have our first purchase order from the OCS in hand and look forward to shipping our first recreational sales this week."

There was a nice runnup heading into earnings so I guess a pullback may be coming.

Seems like Q4 and into Q1'20 is when the revenues will begin to show up for real. Reviews of their weed have been good online.

The conference call should be interesting.

Yeah, burning through 150mm for 3mm of revs isn't the best look. They need to start selling some product, which is the same issue every single one of these companies have.

Any idea what kind of contractual revs they have coming in for the weed going out right now, or is predicated on sales

So the call was interesting. They're looking to break-even Q1 on the sale of 6,000 kg in that period. They are predicting profits in Q1, growing from there. Basically saying they can comfortably sell more than that.

Seems like lots of products are in the works, capsules and vapes and beverages("a lineup of teas"). Coming out beginning December, into Q1 2020. Edibles roll out more likely Q2.

They are looking at revenues of $250M to $300M next year (35:00-36:00 mark on the call), according to the CFO.

Anyone else listen? I'd appreciate hearing anyone else's thoughts.

I got a chance to listen and it does all sound good. If they can break even off 6000kg then this could be a monster of a company, even as they scale up. They have solid answers for all the questions and I like how the callers railed on their cash flows.

They certainly paint a picture of being in a fantastic position. Still need to see it. Pretty sure I've said basically the same thing the last 2 or 3 quarters. Overall, I think I'm going to add to my position based on the expectation that this could start taking off next quarter.

They currently have a market cap of 650mm and have facilities that can grow many multiple billions worth of flower in a year

This was answered on call. All their revs are sales based

In other words, their market cap is about 35% of their annual growing capacity at wholesale prices

Supply glut secured

CGC completely bombed. Pretty amazing how bad this quarter was

Yeah ... glad you listened to the call and heard what I did.
There are risks, but TGOD just seems like a matter of time.

And this would be my biggest concern obv. That is why they brought up the 6,000kg b/e point; they aren't running at capacity right now. They seem to be doing everything to scale and letting everyone else make the big mistakes. They've stuck to the plan and its all coming together. This should be the make it or break it quarter though. If they don't meet your expectations it would be time to reduce the position.

Personally, I want to see at least 15,000kg and a profit. After what they said on the call that should be easily attainable. With the US listing and solid numbers, this could easily 3-5x in the next 12-18 months. Or not grab any market and bomb.