I'm a very novice investor and, as I showed with my completely horrible options bet, very much prone to FOMO mistakes. ... I got out of the options with a huge loss, maybe 90%, and of course there was no bounce ... taking the loss and getting out of that spot felt awesome, because the clock wasn't running anymore.

My point is just a self-observation, that buying stocks and accumulating a position over the long-term makes me feel entirely different when the share price declines. Part of my brain now goes, "cool, stay low so I can buy more next week."

Anyway, at this moment it's a good day for both of those stocks, and that feels fine also.

TLRY lockup expiration on Jan 15. I think market is expecting same reaction as TGOD, which makes it less likely to play out the same. Something to keep an eye on though if it gets extended to either side in the next few sessions here.

Xpost from the trading thread. thoughts?

long term valuation assumes overall market grows and company expands within that growth, i'd assume. how can one even gauge growth of the industry over >5 years when it's contingent on what state/fed gov't chooses to do?

It looks like the "$500 billion" figure is his predicted global total pot market by 2030. lol. And still way too high.

Tilray valuation is a joke imo

Did anyone see the post on reddit of the guy who lost a million dollars on Tilary? I'll find it...

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...you_gentlemen/

"I was trading, so trend or TA doesn’t make sense. First big drop was the volpocalyse in late feb... tried to trade uvxy/svxy without understanding them. Bounced back. Second big dip was when SQ ran to 58, I was short at 49... eventually made money on the trade when it dropped to 44. The last big drop I was short sfix and tlry. Within a week I was short squeezed and margin called. Didn’t hedge and was busy with a new job in meetings all day and wasn’t paying attention to my position. Overall, if you look at my trades for the last 5 years I have a win loss ratio of around 90%. I just let these last two losers run me into the ground by not managing them appropriately."

"iirc got blown the **** out selling naked tilray calls right before it went to 300"

A little bummed I didn't load up on more cgc a few weeks ago. Seems like the industry has been juiced up the last couple of days

I'm bummed I hit-and-ran yesterday thinking today might retrace

Whoa TLRY ... lockup expires and shares go up 25% ?

EDIT: I understand, a major holder of shares said they would not be registering/selling them.

Tilray. Wrecking more redditors.

2 days ago guy buys 50k in puts:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...0_tilray_puts/

Today up 25%.

Oof, yeah. Well ... I know what it feels like to bet and be exactly wrong.


Though not for anywhere near that $.

TGOD chart looking nice.

ACB did really well today. What sparked that?

Just finished filling out my portfolio of pot stocks. A small set of stocks, a bunch purchased this morning so many of the purchase prices are near today's price.

What was that nonsense yesterday from William Barr yesterday? wtf bunch of regressive hacks.

TGOD ($2.22)
APHA ($6.90)
CNTTF ($6.07)
NWKRF ($0.40)
HYYDF ($4.09)

I remember a co-worker recommended me to get marijuana stocks in 2017. I had another co-worker recently tell me they were invested in a marijuana stock. I think ordinary people think because marijuana is becoming legal everywhere that they are insightful for thinking of investing in marijuana stock without justifying the price.

I'm not an expert with this kind of thing, but it seems like it could be overhyped. I looked at a balance sheet of one of these marijuana stocks recommended to me and it was in mountains and mountains of debt. Buyer beware.

They are all start-ups, which operate on l/e. Costs a lot of money to secure properties, licenses, strains, marketing, etc, etc.

I do think you see some of this type of thinking. "Tilray sells marijuana and Marijuana is going to be popular, buy"

Meanwhile Tilray as a 30 billion market cap and 10 million in sales... or whatever it is. their market cap has gotten closer to reality lately.

HYYDF starts on NYSE tomorrow.

Is this a reasonable guess: The market has already absorbed that information, we cannot expect a bump on its opening day on a new exchange.

A related question: Sometimes press releases are important and cause big movements -- things like the company is now profitable, or diluting shares are being released. How quickly does that information get acted on? Is info still hot an hour later?

Yes, I know it varies, but what gross generalities can be made?

Short answer is that any information you have is no longer hot

There are some things that the market systematically misprices because reasons, but those either can't be easily generalized or can't be easily traded, for obvious reasons.

Aphria and GGB trading halted earlier today, on volatility. A real offer coming this time?

Hexo has had a nice run recently.

Aphria GGB deal is pointless. It way undervalues the company and it's for GGB stock. It's nothing.

Yes, that's exactly what I've been reading.

TGOD gave a date to spin-off shares of SpinCo, its acquisition vehicle. US shareholders wont receive warrants, which at least one analyst I follow says means the investments are likely to be in the United States.

Hexo raising some cash, but apparently got favorable terms. With the uplisting, I'm happy to see it holding stable.

I think the key is buying well-run companies that are not already too expensive. ... maybe that's no-brainer, but yeah you're right, just having marijuana in your business plan doesn't guarantee anything.

That said, there will be well-run companies making money. The demand for marijuana is there, someone will profit.

One thing I like about TGOD is that it seems to be targeting a fairly specific set of customers/attributes: Medical, Online, Organic. And when their buildout is complete, assuming (??!) it goes as planned, they will be one of the larger producers.

I liked the company at much higher prices, before the crappy October-November selloffs, so getting in below $2.50 seems great to me.

Sold all the CGC I added below 40 during the recent dip. Sold some of my original position that was averaged around 16 this week. If CGC sees 60 again it will be hard not to sell all of it. 55 even might get me completely out.

2/15 earnings for canopy.