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Old 10-06-2018, 09:51 PM   #1
ElSapo
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Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

I love marijuana. It's awesome. And since it's becoming legal or accepted or what have you, I expect more people will realize how awesome it is, and the market will grow.

Anyways, that's my whole investment strategy right now, which isn't much of one. So I thought I'd start this thread because a new market is beginning and there probably are a lot of opportunities—same as a lot of scams and hype.

My finance and investing knowledge is negligible, so I'm just sharing some of what I've found so far. There are a few ETFs out there, a few major growers in Canada, and a lot of tiny pot businesses that went public but apparently aren't subject to the same reporting requirements and are kinda sketchy.

ETFs
  • MJ—this fund used to focus on Latin American real estate, but I guess weed sounded more interesting. US-listed, focused on Canadian and global markets.
  • HMJR (Horizons Junior Marijuana Growers Index ETF)--this fund is focused on small-cap companies, mostly on the production/grow side.
  • HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF)--Largest cannabis ETF out there, I believe.

Individual companies
  • CGC (Canopy Growth) (closed $9.77 10/5)--Largest cannabis company by market cap? Big grower
  • ACBFF (Aurora Cannabis) ($9.87)--Canadian producer
  • NXTTF (Namaste Technologies) ($1.62)--an e-commerce medical marijuana company
  • TGODF (Green Organic Flying Dutchman) ($4.90)--Large Canadian producer with global expansion ideas
  • CRON (Cronos Group) ($9.77) --Diversified and vertically integrated cannabis company
  • HYYDF (Hexo Corp) ($6.53)--Producer, recently announced a partnership with Molson to develop cannabis-infused non-alcvoholic drinks
  • MJNA (Medical Marijuana Inc.) ($0.09)--Holding company with hemp-based subsidiaries
  • CNTTF (CannTrust Holdings) ($9.32)--Another producer with another beverage deal, this one less well-known
  • MCIG(mCig Inc) ($0.26)--Owns all or part of several cannabis-focused businesses


Right now I've got MJ Apr 18 2019 39 Call and I've been buying shares of TGODF.
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Old 10-07-2018, 01:10 AM   #2
thedude404
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Quote:
Originally Posted by ElSapo View Post
I love marijuana. It's awesome. And since it's becoming legal or accepted or what have you, I expect more people will realize how awesome it is, and the market will grow.

Anyways, that's my whole investment strategy right now, which isn't much of one. So I thought I'd start this thread because a new market is beginning and there probably are a lot of opportunities—same as a lot of scams and hype.

My finance and investing knowledge is negligible, so I'm just sharing some of what I've found so far. There are a few ETFs out there, a few major growers in Canada, and a lot of tiny pot businesses that went public but apparently aren't subject to the same reporting requirements and are kinda sketchy.

ETFs
  • MJ—this fund used to focus on Latin American real estate, but I guess weed sounded more interesting. US-listed, focused on Canadian and global markets.
  • HMJR (Horizons Junior Marijuana Growers Index ETF)--this fund is focused on small-cap companies, mostly on the production/grow side.
  • HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF)--Largest cannabis ETF out there, I believe.

Individual companies
  • CGC (Canopy Growth) (closed $9.77 10/5)--Largest cannabis company by market cap? Big grower
  • ACBFF (Aurora Cannabis) ($9.87)--Canadian producer
  • NXTTF (Namaste Technologies) ($1.62)--an e-commerce medical marijuana company
  • TGODF (Green Organic Flying Dutchman) ($4.90)--Large Canadian producer with global expansion ideas
  • CRON (Cronos Group) ($9.77) --Diversified and vertically integrated cannabis company
  • HYYDF (Hexo Corp) ($6.53)--Producer, recently announced a partnership with Molson to develop cannabis-infused non-alcvoholic drinks
  • MJNA (Medical Marijuana Inc.) ($0.09)--Holding company with hemp-based subsidiaries
  • CNTTF (CannTrust Holdings) ($9.32)--Another producer with another beverage deal, this one less well-known
  • MCIG(mCig Inc) ($0.26)--Owns all or part of several cannabis-focused businesses


Right now I've got MJ Apr 18 2019 39 Call and I've been buying shares of TGODF.
Just like any other new high growth industry, eventually the pretenders will be weeded out from the contenders. Ok, so I just posted this so I could use that pun. But seriously I've had experience with options they can kill you...but at least you've got a relatively long term one. I guess my best advice would be to do your due diligence, learn how to read financial statements, and keep up with the trends.....
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Old 10-07-2018, 08:31 AM   #3
ToothSayer
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

TLRY is particularly interesting, and tradable.

They're a tiny medical marijuana producer who pulled in $20 million total revenue last year (not a typo) and are now valued at $13.8 billion (not a typo) at $146. They went as high as $300/$27 billion before crashing.

To me marijuana seems like standard bubble dynamics - ride it up if you want but get out when the valuation gets so high that it's run out of ponzi tards to keep buying in.
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Old 10-07-2018, 07:09 PM   #4
eastern motors
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Buying calls for Nov 2018 could be decent. Recreational MJ definitely going to win in Michigan. Some other states have ballot proposals too. From very limited research, I think the whole sector is overpriced and I would not buy with the intent to hold for very long.
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Old 10-07-2018, 11:57 PM   #5
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

I know a few people who’ve traded nothing but pot stocks over the past several years and theyre pretty confident the bubble will burst in the very near future. The lack of institutional money that made them such a good buy over the last few years doesn’t apply at this point.
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Old 10-08-2018, 07:24 AM   #6
OlafTheSnowman
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Based on the timing of silver, tsla and btc threads...this bubble is probably in its infancy. Gonna try to educate myself
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Old 10-08-2018, 07:58 AM   #7
ElSapo
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Interesting piece on IGC, a "pot stock" that has risen 500% ... lots of red flags.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:10 AM   #8
calmasahinducow
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

PYX seems to be the new runner.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:36 AM   #9
btc
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

^Recent pumping. Another is Auxly CBWTF.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:37 AM   #10
btc
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Quote:
Originally Posted by OlafTheSnowman View Post
Based on the timing of silver, tsla and btc threads...this bubble is probably in its infancy. Gonna try to educate myself
Where do you think all that nervous millennial tsla and crypto cash is going to wind up?

Few more to add on Sapo's list:
CNPOF
Canopy Rivers Inc.
KHRNF
Khiron Life Sciences Corp.
NBEV
New Age Beverages Corporation
MPXEF
MPX Bioceutical Corporation
CNGGF
Cann Group Limited
ACNNF
AusCann Group Holdings Ltd
ELLXF
Elixinol Global Limited
LHSIF
Liberty Health Sciences Inc.
ITHUF
iAnthus Capital Holdings, Inc.
ISOLF
Isodiol International Inc.
SCCYF
Scythian Biosciences Corp
KSHB
KushCo Holdings, Inc.
SPRWF
The Supreme Cannabis Company, Inc.
OGRMF
OrganiGram Holdings Inc.
APHQF
Aphria Inc.
CBWTF
Auxly Cannabis Group
ALEAF
Aleafia Health

Last edited by btc; 10-08-2018 at 10:45 AM.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:40 AM   #11
calmasahinducow
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

A couple other more legit (i.e. non-scam) cannabis plays are CRBP, GWPH and MPX.CN/MPXEF. I think like 95% of these companies are analogous to scammy alt-coins but trading some of these is pretty fun.
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Old 10-08-2018, 11:42 AM   #12
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Weed stocks seem to be up today after ending last week down. Going to be fun seeing how this all plays out going into next year. I'd say first year should be good for the stocks. What happens with weed companies though is eventually they have too much product so their profits kind of stagnate.
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:40 PM   #13
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Huh....you guys want to get into this sector now after many have had 50X moves?

Please explain why commodity producers are trading at such absurd future p/s multiples?

Last edited by theviolator; 10-08-2018 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:12 PM   #14
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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Please explain why commodity producers are trading at such absurd future p/s multiples?
I was thinking this too. None of these companies have any moat whatsoever. None own any patents or trademarks of value.
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Old 10-08-2018, 04:24 PM   #15
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

While I agree the ship has sailed on a few of these names, that's not true. You're not allowed to just start growing your uncle bob's strain for medicinal purposes. There are sourcing requirements so new licensed producers had to go to the OG producers for DNA... It's why CRON was such a good buy... two years ago.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:22 PM   #16
eastern motors
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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While I agree the ship has sailed on a few of these names, that's not true. You're not allowed to just start growing your uncle bob's strain for medicinal purposes. There are sourcing requirements so new licensed producers had to go to the OG producers for DNA... It's why CRON was such a good buy... two years ago.
What jurisdiction are you talking about? In California and Michigan you can buy clones at dispensaries. No idea about Colorado or Canada shops.

I think that other than the very top end stuff, quality won't matter much. Quality flower will be like 12 year old Scotch. Flower is less and less of the market everyday and the people I know who spend a lot on weed have ridiculous tolerances requiring concentrates of some kind.
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:48 AM   #17
ElSapo
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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What jurisdiction are you talking about? In California and Michigan you can buy clones at dispensaries. No idea about Colorado or Canada shops.

I think that other than the very top end stuff, quality won't matter much. Quality flower will be like 12 year old Scotch. Flower is less and less of the market everyday and the people I know who spend a lot on weed have ridiculous tolerances requiring concentrates of some kind.
A couple of years ago I talked to a guy on the board at norml who told me the future of cananbis was pesticide-free outdoor grow, subsequently processed into concentrates.

Flower isn't the future of pot sales, at least not for new consumption. (Many) people don't want to smoke it, but they'll drink it or vape it or eat it.
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:56 AM   #18
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

There are plenty of use cases besides recreational and medicinal consumption, although that is what the concentration is about near term. Industrial hemp is a different ball game and because of regulations we're only at the starting line.
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Old 10-09-2018, 11:34 AM   #19
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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I was thinking this too. None of these companies have any moat whatsoever. None own any patents or trademarks of value.
The value is in the licenses. Varies state by state (and country) but each one generally it entitles you to a fixed number of dispensaries. The problem is there’s no way of knowing how many will be issued going forward. With a small number you can have a lock on specific localities and have healthy margins ... but eventually there’ll be enough for every major player to be involved making it impossible for producers to charge steep premiums.
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:45 PM   #20
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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Originally Posted by OlafTheSnowman View Post
Based on the timing of silver, tsla and btc threads...this bubble is probably in its infancy. Gonna try to educate myself
LOLs, this was my exact thought. But its not clear IMO. Can't tell if its too late. I think I'd spray and pray but also weight towards the leaders.

It might be nice if they can fall with the market and get in after the uncertainty from mid terms is resolved.

I think it all goes strong if the outcome is red. Blue may just continue any selling.

I hope and kind of think we stabilize here, rally into earnings, sell into mid-terms. And then hold our breath as the markets await the outcome.

Last edited by rand; 10-09-2018 at 02:02 PM.
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:49 PM   #21
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

I mean the blues will impeach Trump if they win...
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Old 10-09-2018, 03:32 PM   #22
eastern motors
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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A couple of years ago I talked to a guy on the board at norml who told me the future of cananbis was pesticide-free outdoor grow, subsequently processed into concentrates.

Flower isn't the future of pot sales, at least not for new consumption. (Many) people don't want to smoke it, but they'll drink it or vape it or eat it.
I definitely agree with this. Which will make marijuana a commodity like corn or soybeans.

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I think it all goes strong if the outcome is red. Blue may just continue any selling.
Blue would probably be better for MJ stocks. Are you talking about the market in general? There are 4 states with ballot initiatives. 2 medical and 2 recreational. Those ballot iniatives should have a lot more impact than red or blue.
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Old 10-09-2018, 03:41 PM   #23
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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I definitely agree with this. Which will make marijuana a commodity like corn or soybeans.



Blue would probably be better for MJ stocks. Are you talking about the market in general? There are 4 states with ballot initiatives. 2 medical and 2 recreational. Those ballot iniatives should have a lot more impact than red or blue.
Yeah, thats a good point. I was talking about the market in general. Blue probably is better or MJ stocks in a vacuum. But would that outweigh a general market sell off if we got one? I'm not so sure.
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Old 10-09-2018, 04:00 PM   #24
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

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Yeah, thats a good point. I was talking about the market in general. Blue probably is better or MJ stocks in a vacuum. But would that outweigh a general market sell off if we got one? I'm not so sure.
I don't see a "blue wave" causing a general market sell off in 2018. Blue won't be able to override vetoes.

2020 blue wave including POTUS would result in corp tax rates going up. MJ likely to be decriminalized federally though.
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Old 10-09-2018, 04:03 PM   #25
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Re: Wanna get high? ... Investing in marijuana

Between Canada going legal in a week and the midterms possibly giving the green light to more states, it seems like there would be some disconnect between the general market and the burgeoning pot industry.

I'm still surprised Trump+Sessions said they were going hard line on marijuana. I could totally have seen him being the surprise president to push legalization, then again, pres psycho doesn't drink.
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