Aphria was my first stock I bought just over a year ago, around 7 cad, I held for about 6 months and even averaged down to 5, ending up selling at around 4 thinking they might never recover (noob mistake). Obviously in hindsight it was a mistake, but still don't agree with valuations for these Canadian companies at all, as rafiki said. I think it's too late to get back in for me, but I will keep watching and may change my mind.

Exactly why I've stayed the **** away from the producers. Low margin and ultra high competition business, all the biggest winners have been in the ancillary providers (IIPR GRWG SMG SSPK etc) and I think that's the best way to play this going forward

The price per gram is going to be super low when the only people growing it will be individuals and small farms. The industry will be disrupted by bio-farming.
Although, as I understand it, the cannabis plant and seeds provide all the necessary protein and nutrition and at levels that are equivalent to human needs. So if people start eating it in mass that could change the game quite a bit. Note, this is not eating it to get high. That can be avoided.

I think it's possible the cosmetic and topical industry saves it all. I had not realized the extent to which that was happening on our government sites now. Must be 20 topicals. The margins on those are RIDICULOUS. Like criminal (consider I make my own and know what goes into it).

The flower prices are already tanking and we've not even begun to see disruption. I can get decent medical grade with no bulk discount for $6.50 a gram and that's Canadian dollars, lol. Could the floor be...$4? Less?

I know they produce a gram in South America for between 8c and 25c. lol.

weed stocks picking up again . which are your favourites?

KHRNF, set to take advantage of Mexico legalizing this year

Investing based on fundamentals? I am listening.

How are they positioned for that?

I don't know much, just took a shot on them because former President Vicente Fox is a major investor and on the board of directors. Fox is very involved with cannabis legalization here in Mexico. He founded a non-profit, Centro Fox, which hosts the CannaMexico World Summit every year.

Who is going to be the big winner from Mexican legalization

I'm betting on KHRNF

-Mexico has an extremely corrupt political/economic environment
-Former president of Mexico Vicente Fox is on the board of directors and is one of the initial investors in KHRNF. He is one of the biggest activists funding legalization of marijuana in Mexico and his non-profit has hosted the Mexican version of the Cannabis Cup for several years.

I think connections are going to be the most important thing for companies to be able to succeed in the legal mexican cannabis industry.

fwiw I do own quite a bit of the stock and am up ~100% already so not an unbiased view

SSPK>>Weedmaps I have a position in and like the concept of the WM consumer marketplace, SaaS for the cannabis retailers. Bull thesis = growth (always), Amazon of pot, profitable, etc. Am considering adding.

I’m not overly impressed with the Marketplace website, IMHO not a shining example of an industry innovator. The SaaS suite of products for the dispensary subscribers is claimed to be extensive. Revenue per subscriber $3000+ per month, hardly a bargain. Seems like these areas could be attacked by a sharp competitor.

In addition, there appears to be a cloud of investigation about WM listing unlicensed Retailers, I think in California. A slap and a fine or a real problem?

My overall impression is this is another average SPAC deal but, as we all know, fundamentals are irrelevant in this market. Comments appreciated.

PS: Credit and thanks to twelve yr old for Jan post putting SSPK on my radar.

how are the cartels gonna play this?

Cartels make fruit now. Avacados

Seems like the market agrees about khrnf

What is everyone's favorite USA-based companies for potential in the next 5 years?

following this, I'm interested but I don't think it's ever a good idea to buy a stock after it's basically doubled in a week

at what price would you buy more?

I got lucky and bought a bunch @ $0.28. Would add more under 30 cents

Sold my CURLF yesterday, ::shrug::

U.S. cannabis producers are now favored by Wall Street analysts, who’ve soured on Canadian companies



Any thoughts on these?

I still believe this is a commodity racing to the bottom but some of these could be short term winners.

I'm still bullish Trulieve and Green Thumb and love them at their current prices, albeit it's definitely possible they plunge lower. If these companies weren't OTC, I guarantee their peak prices would have been much higher. There are some risks with both: Trulieve's CEO's husband has been embroiled in a corruption scandal in FL, trial coming up this summer, that has a chance of implicating Trulieve in some way, and Green Thumb is reportedly under federal investigation for corruption-type activities. Trulieve has strong financials and basically dominates FL, which doesn't even have rec weed yet, and it looks like they're aggressively looking to establish more of a presence in other states now. Green Thumb has been a CNBC darling, has also been putting up some nice numbers, and looks like it's established a strong foothold in IL and other parts of the Midwest. If you can stomach the risks, I think both of these companies are positioned nicely to be standing tall when the dust settles in this space within the next few years.

I traded that post-election rush and walked away from trading for a few months because I was so busy. Kind of shocked to come back to some charts today, What a blood bath!

I can tell you that smaller producers are liquidating equipment and greenhouses for pennies on the dollar, the listings and auctions are all over.

Guess the amount of competition totally outstripped demand. Wonder where the bottom is relative to here.

All the stoners I know still buy from friends who grow or grow their own. Legal market is way too epensive most places relative to the easily accesible black market.

Also, in California the new packaging regulations have hurt the quality of the flower available in legal stores. In the past a lot of stores sold weed fresh and would sell you any amount from 1 gram to 2 ounces. Now it's only available prepackaged in a few quantities and by the time it gets from grower to customer it's 6-12 months old and dry. Though it doesn't really affect any products besides flower.

I think stoners and flower is still relatively small compared to the market they want to get, ie sleep/pain/medlical/cosmetic/food/drink.

But on our government sites I've seen the first $4 grams, so change is coming. They have no choice.

Quality is definitely an issue though.

True, I'm sure flower is the last thing stores are interested in marketing/selling. Much better margins on basically everything else and there's obviously a much larger market of non-smokers than there are smokers. It will be interesting to see how much of a market % raw flower ends up being in the long run.

Haven't touched this sector in ages, but once this crypto miner bounce is over I'd like to play for a bounce in here. Could have another 30% drop left in it though for real capitulation.

US OTC tickers looking more and more interesting to me. Curaleaf, trulieve, green thumb, etc etc with monster revenue growth & forecasted monster growth. Profits aren't there yet. I don't know if weed will be a race to the bottom commodity, seems like these multi state operators are building legitimate legal moats. Black market is definitely experiencing the race to the bottom.

Anecdotally, according to some local cops that i golf with...in our medical only state with a massive opioids problem, weed black market is turning increasingly violent. For their calls, weed being involved is more "points" on their "potential violence" indicator algorithm than any other illicit drug. Thought those were strange observations and I'm not sure if it is true without some larger dataset, but they live in that bubble everyday.

Most tickers down about 50% from 2021 highs, but still up 100% from 2020 lows. MSOS the ETF that's getting exposure with its total returns swaps, is back down to where it started trading at in Sep 2020.

Seems like the sector has been ignored for quite some time now. Maybe the sector still has some more downside left in the next 6-12 months, but i think the prices are starting to look mighty fine, and worth slowly building a position.