Thanks for sharing. I didnt know Cobie was still worth listening to but found it quite useful.

Sad news, the doge dog died

Allocated a bit to Uniswap. It is still the number one decentralised exchange but the token has recovered to nowhere near all time highs. It looked to be on a recovery track until it was issued with Well Notice from the SEC which it is fighting. This is all before the complete sea change at a political level on Crypto, ETH ETF approval, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see it get dropped completely.

If anyone has any other secondary plays from the ETH news, I am all ears.

counterpoint

even if Uni ever enables the fee switch (which has been a dangling carrot for years so Uni Labs can keep dumping its token), the annual revenue would be in the order of $75 million on an $8.6 billion market cap for a P/S ratio of 115x. i guess 115x is better than most vaporware projects out there, but i just don’t see a compelling reason to ever own UNI when other verticals are valued significantly higher and have projects at $100-500m market caps that will do multiples in a full on bull cycle / retail mania phase.

UNI and all the rest of the DeFi 1.0 tokens have the same down-only price charts since DeFi Summer 2020. i think you’d have better luck finding smaller projects with growing metrics only available on DEXes currently and basically front run normies on eventual CEX listings.

or just buy a basket of memes like pepe / wif / bonk / mug / boden / maga as that **** seems to be the only sandbox retail wants to play in this cycle when you have a minefield of trash like Worldcoin and its $45bn FDV floating out there.

The vote is happening on the 31st - https://dailycoin.com/uniswap-v3-fee...-need-to-know/

Accounting - https://cointelegraph.com/news/unisw...ts-commitments

Outside of this, I am basically betting on the fact that I don't think the market has correctly adjusted to the political change in sentiment around Crypto given the crash in the token from the SEC suit.

I don't know how any of this is related to trying to find shitcoins that will 1000x in value. If it was as easy as you suggest we would all be rich.

i mean uniswap the token (not the protocol) is effectively a shitcoin as well, along with 99+% of all other tokens. there are plenty of dex tokens that share revenue with token holders and they are not reaching frothy valuations either.

regarding shitcoins, i’m not saying it’s easier simply that the risk/reward is better as most people never transact on chain and simply buy what’s available on CEXes which logically would result in less alpha as everyone has access to the token for years. basically every eth token underperforms eth as the market values infrastructure much higher than apps.

if UNI is mispriced at a future 150x P/S (assuming 10% fee share for token holders, with LP’s receiving the lion’s share at 90%), then what is a fair valuation? 300x P/S? 600x?

not to mention, Uniswap is the single biggest protocol in terms of native asset treasury holdings at $4.6bn (53% of total $8.6bn market cap) and has expressed a desire/need to diversify treasury holdings which will be relentless sell pressure (as has been happening for years already).

Uniswap Labs equity would be a great investment as that is where all the value is accruing. UNI token, not so much (in my opinion of course).

You are looking at this far too deeply. I agree they are all shitcoins, I'm not looking at this as some technological investment to change the world. I know though given this is the oldest, highest volume DEX in the world I am not getting rugged out of existence. I am looking for a decent bounce, take 30-40% and move on once the news that the SEC won't be prosecuting is made official which I think is like 95% to happen give the shift in landscape. I don't really see a downside.

I am far more concerned with WorldCoin as a project than the tokenomics of the project. I know we are going to need to tackle, bots, AI, etc in some capacity but this tracking of people through Biometrics seems a path to dysphonia. There is going to be a real push I think in the coming years to introduce something like a digital passport for accessing the internet.

Ah, yah if you’re just looking at it as a short term trade then yah I can see a short term bounce if and when the fee switch is turned on because is very reactionary like that.

I don’t trade anything short term really, so when I buy bags I make sure it’s something I’m comfortable holding for at least a year to qualify for long-term cap gains tax treatment.

johnnybuz since you seem more studied than most, do you have any opinion on what can happen in a QE bullmarket vs a QT bullmarket?

ben cowen is the only crypto YTer i listen to at all. well not true, sometimes in the past i listened to james (investanswers) but that was only to basically get a whole crypto/stock/some real estate + current events out of the way in like 10-15 mins on 1.5x-2x speed each day

If you want just 1 timestamp, its 9:43-15:50 you can listen to on 1.5-2x. Title of vid had to do with ADA but he was also showing all alts as a whole vs btc, looking at eth etc. Basically in 1 sentence 'timelines and narratives don't matter at all, QT vs QE does'
https://youtu.be/VOJdqSwFgBU?t=583

In 2009 the Fed started QE, which is money printing, to raise asset values. They believed that rising house and stock prices, would make people feel wealthier and that they would go out and spend like drunk sailors.

Milton Freedman mentioned QE as an example of what not to do. He said it was just inflation. That strong economies are built on a foundation of production and savings. Weak bubble economies are built on debt, consumption and money printing.

Unfortunately, for political expediency Ben Bernanke took the cowards way out and went down the money printing rabbit hole. Ironically, he wrote a book called the courage to act and won a Nobel Prize.

In March 2020 the Fed launched QE4 ie money printing, because nobody bothered to save anything and every business was shut down. Bitcoin went from 4k to 60k.

In December 2021 the Fed launched QT. In 9 months Bitcoin fell from 60k to 16k.

Now the Junkies on Wall Street, are betting that the Fed repeats the mistakes that they made in the past and Bitcoin has since made a recovery.

I just randomly realized I have some ANT on Kucoin (delisted there). How do I know which network to add to Metamask so I can send there and...convert to ETH I guess? (can't sell it on Kucoin since it's delisted)

When you withdraw from Kucoin it will tell you which network(s) they can send to. It's most likely just eth mainnet so you shouldn't need to do anything. Looks like about $10k daily volume on uniswap

Thanks. Had to send a support ticket in anyway though, getting an error saying max withdraw of 0 for the token even though it clearly shows it's there. (I also just withdrew some stray USDT so I assume it's about the weird token situation and not my account).

while that is a benefit of QE, that is not the only 'Benefit' of loose monetary policy.

the MAIN BENEFIT of a loose monetary policy and a fractionalized currency, are the effects on Debt. It makes Debt MUCH cheaper to repay.

Think of monetary policy and the repo market as a Throttle pedal in a car... the more you press (loosen), the faster you go... the more you lift off the pedal, the slower you go... and the more you raise rates, the more you press on the brakes.

the thing about this cycle is that the economy is like a GIANT Vehicle that is overloaded with size and weight, and the brakes are not working as well as they have before... and are beginning to heat up and loose effectiveness.

https://docs.alloy.tether.to/

Over collateralized gold loans allowing XAU₮ (Tether Gold) holders to mint aUSD₮ a new gold backed stablecoin on Ethereum.

Now that the market seems to be softening. Which low to mid cap alt coins do you guys have your eyes on? What sectors or catagories can give some alpha returns?

I had closed alot of my alt longs on the past run up.

But I bought a bunch back including RNDR, BEAM, SUI, FET, ALGO, ATOM, FIL and XRP for the lulz

Why are alts not dumping like I wanted them to. Versus btc. I saw btc was going to 59 like

$ICE .

Ice Open Network, 2.1M followers on X, you can get free tokens from their projects with the tap-to-mine technology. around 30M marketcap.

DYOR. Not selling any until it gets to Billions of marketcap.

Max Supply - 21,150,537,435

24 Hour Trading Vol - $3,388,601

Market Cap - $32,362,679


LOL...

Yep, that's correct.

If you want multiple X's would you prefer a project with 32M market cap or 32B?

We'll see how this goes.

How about now, two years later? Which five would y'all pick?

I'm a nit and have not been following closely, probably going all SOL.

Sol, drift, link, ondo, ena

I’d keep ETH, Monero, Rune and Avax from my list and replace Atom with Sol.

For whatever reason, the market continues to place an incomprehensibly large premium on layer-1 assets even if they’ve achieved absolutely nothing for years (see polkadot, cardano) while app-chains and layer-2’s are treated as bastard stepchildren second class citizens valuation wise (which is probably closer to fair value than the layer-1’s but that’s for another day).

At some point valuations will have to drop significantly either due to dispersion/dilution of investor capital/attention as the “token founders launch 47th iteration of modular/zero knowledge/restaking/other buzzword infrastructure project at a multibillion FDV and cash out 8+ figures with nothing to show for it” as supply of blockspace far exceeds users/demand for blockspace, or the market matures and collectively stops rewarding the VC/founder grift behavior. Worldcoin for example has $17m daily unlocks for the next 750 days or something absurd. There is literally no demand to satisfy that so its chart should go the way of Internet Computers.

so I’m like 90-95% blue chips (btc/eth/sol) with 5-10% in one micro cap ($5m) app-chain as my moonbag. if it hits big I have enough capital invested that it will dwarf my blue chips combined, but if it does nothing (single digit multiple by cycle peak) I’ll still have done well enough with core holdings (assuming I exit the market correctly time wise) to set me up very well for the next cycle (or become a TradFi boomer and move to mostly equities).

part of me thinks the “alts are going to zero” reckoning could be a cycle away or less (ie: no market wide alt szn this cycle), and if that were to happen I think you’re going to see thousands of projects become zombie ghost chains as founders/devs simply walk away upon the realization they aren’t going to get FU-money rich on a hype cycle dumping on retail + dev salaries aren’t worth it without the cash out opportunity.

so tldr: a large core position of btc/eth/maybe sol probably offers the best risk adjusted returns as they’ve all achieved PMF in different use cases (btc: money; eth: tech platform/TradFi use cases; sol: cheap normie/meme chain). beyond that seems to be guessing/luck as there’s simply too many projects for a crypto native to keep track of now let alone a NPC with zero exposure to the ecosystem.

and monero is just cool. has 10 years Lindy/track record and an easy enough narrative for the masses to accept: digital private cash.

the thing these coins all have in common is they’re all nearly fully distributed/emitted with no huge VC unlocks/constant sell pressure. Sol is 80% max supply but weathered that storm admirably during the bear market/FTX collapse which bodes well for its future imo. wish I had more cash available late 2022 when it was sub-$10.