Thanks for sharing. I didnt know Cobie was still worth listening to but found it quite useful.

Sad news, the doge dog died

Allocated a bit to Uniswap. It is still the number one decentralised exchange but the token has recovered to nowhere near all time highs. It looked to be on a recovery track until it was issued with Well Notice from the SEC which it is fighting. This is all before the complete sea change at a political level on Crypto, ETH ETF approval, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see it get dropped completely.

If anyone has any other secondary plays from the ETH news, I am all ears.

counterpoint

even if Uni ever enables the fee switch (which has been a dangling carrot for years so Uni Labs can keep dumping its token), the annual revenue would be in the order of $75 million on an $8.6 billion market cap for a P/S ratio of 115x. i guess 115x is better than most vaporware projects out there, but i just don’t see a compelling reason to ever own UNI when other verticals are valued significantly higher and have projects at $100-500m market caps that will do multiples in a full on bull cycle / retail mania phase.

UNI and all the rest of the DeFi 1.0 tokens have the same down-only price charts since DeFi Summer 2020. i think you’d have better luck finding smaller projects with growing metrics only available on DEXes currently and basically front run normies on eventual CEX listings.

or just buy a basket of memes like pepe / wif / bonk / mug / boden / maga as that **** seems to be the only sandbox retail wants to play in this cycle when you have a minefield of trash like Worldcoin and its $45bn FDV floating out there.

The vote is happening on the 31st - https://dailycoin.com/uniswap-v3-fee...-need-to-know/

Accounting - https://cointelegraph.com/news/unisw...ts-commitments

Outside of this, I am basically betting on the fact that I don't think the market has correctly adjusted to the political change in sentiment around Crypto given the crash in the token from the SEC suit.

I don't know how any of this is related to trying to find shitcoins that will 1000x in value. If it was as easy as you suggest we would all be rich.

i mean uniswap the token (not the protocol) is effectively a shitcoin as well, along with 99+% of all other tokens. there are plenty of dex tokens that share revenue with token holders and they are not reaching frothy valuations either.

regarding shitcoins, i’m not saying it’s easier simply that the risk/reward is better as most people never transact on chain and simply buy what’s available on CEXes which logically would result in less alpha as everyone has access to the token for years. basically every eth token underperforms eth as the market values infrastructure much higher than apps.

if UNI is mispriced at a future 150x P/S (assuming 10% fee share for token holders, with LP’s receiving the lion’s share at 90%), then what is a fair valuation? 300x P/S? 600x?

not to mention, Uniswap is the single biggest protocol in terms of native asset treasury holdings at $4.6bn (53% of total $8.6bn market cap) and has expressed a desire/need to diversify treasury holdings which will be relentless sell pressure (as has been happening for years already).

Uniswap Labs equity would be a great investment as that is where all the value is accruing. UNI token, not so much (in my opinion of course).

You are looking at this far too deeply. I agree they are all shitcoins, I'm not looking at this as some technological investment to change the world. I know though given this is the oldest, highest volume DEX in the world I am not getting rugged out of existence. I am looking for a decent bounce, take 30-40% and move on once the news that the SEC won't be prosecuting is made official which I think is like 95% to happen give the shift in landscape. I don't really see a downside.

I am far more concerned with WorldCoin as a project than the tokenomics of the project. I know we are going to need to tackle, bots, AI, etc in some capacity but this tracking of people through Biometrics seems a path to dysphonia. There is going to be a real push I think in the coming years to introduce something like a digital passport for accessing the internet.

Ah, yah if you’re just looking at it as a short term trade then yah I can see a short term bounce if and when the fee switch is turned on because is very reactionary like that.

I don’t trade anything short term really, so when I buy bags I make sure it’s something I’m comfortable holding for at least a year to qualify for long-term cap gains tax treatment.

johnnybuz since you seem more studied than most, do you have any opinion on what can happen in a QE bullmarket vs a QT bullmarket?

ben cowen is the only crypto YTer i listen to at all. well not true, sometimes in the past i listened to james (investanswers) but that was only to basically get a whole crypto/stock/some real estate + current events out of the way in like 10-15 mins on 1.5x-2x speed each day

If you want just 1 timestamp, its 9:43-15:50 you can listen to on 1.5-2x. Title of vid had to do with ADA but he was also showing all alts as a whole vs btc, looking at eth etc. Basically in 1 sentence 'timelines and narratives don't matter at all, QT vs QE does'
https://youtu.be/VOJdqSwFgBU?t=583

In 2009 the Fed started QE, which is money printing, to raise asset values. They believed that rising house and stock prices, would make people feel wealthier and that they would go out and spend like drunk sailors.

Milton Freedman mentioned QE as an example of what not to do. He said it was just inflation. That strong economies are built on a foundation of production and savings. Weak bubble economies are built on debt, consumption and money printing.

Unfortunately, for political expediency Ben Bernanke took the cowards way out and went down the money printing rabbit hole. Ironically, he wrote a book called the courage to act and won a Nobel Prize.

In March 2020 the Fed launched QE4 ie money printing, because nobody bothered to save anything and every business was shut down. Bitcoin went from 4k to 60k.

In December 2021 the Fed launched QT. In 9 months Bitcoin fell from 60k to 16k.

Now the Junkies on Wall Street, are betting that the Fed repeats the mistakes that they made in the past and Bitcoin has since made a recovery.

I just randomly realized I have some ANT on Kucoin (delisted there). How do I know which network to add to Metamask so I can send there and...convert to ETH I guess? (can't sell it on Kucoin since it's delisted)

When you withdraw from Kucoin it will tell you which network(s) they can send to. It's most likely just eth mainnet so you shouldn't need to do anything. Looks like about $10k daily volume on uniswap

Thanks. Had to send a support ticket in anyway though, getting an error saying max withdraw of 0 for the token even though it clearly shows it's there. (I also just withdrew some stray USDT so I assume it's about the weird token situation and not my account).

while that is a benefit of QE, that is not the only 'Benefit' of loose monetary policy.

the MAIN BENEFIT of a loose monetary policy and a fractionalized currency, are the effects on Debt. It makes Debt MUCH cheaper to repay.

Think of monetary policy and the repo market as a Throttle pedal in a car... the more you press (loosen), the faster you go... the more you lift off the pedal, the slower you go... and the more you raise rates, the more you press on the brakes.

the thing about this cycle is that the economy is like a GIANT Vehicle that is overloaded with size and weight, and the brakes are not working as well as they have before... and are beginning to heat up and loose effectiveness.