Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
How about now, two years later? Which five would y'all pick?
I’d keep ETH, Monero, Rune and Avax from my list and replace Atom with Sol.
For whatever reason, the market continues to place an incomprehensibly large premium on layer-1 assets even if they’ve achieved absolutely nothing for years (see polkadot, cardano) while app-chains and layer-2’s are treated as bastard stepchildren second class citizens valuation wise (which is probably closer to fair value than the layer-1’s but that’s for another day).
At some point valuations will have to drop significantly either due to dispersion/dilution of investor capital/attention as the “token founders launch 47th iteration of modular/zero knowledge/restaking/other buzzword infrastructure project at a multibillion FDV and cash out 8+ figures with nothing to show for it” as supply of blockspace far exceeds users/demand for blockspace, or the market matures and collectively stops rewarding the VC/founder grift behavior. Worldcoin for example has $17m daily unlocks for the next 750 days or something absurd. There is literally no demand to satisfy that so its chart should go the way of Internet Computers.
so I’m like 90-95% blue chips (btc/eth/sol) with 5-10% in one micro cap ($5m) app-chain as my moonbag. if it hits big I have enough capital invested that it will dwarf my blue chips combined, but if it does nothing (single digit multiple by cycle peak) I’ll still have done well enough with core holdings (assuming I exit the market correctly time wise) to set me up very well for the next cycle (or become a TradFi boomer and move to mostly equities).
part of me thinks the “alts are going to zero” reckoning could be a cycle away or less (ie: no market wide alt szn this cycle), and if that were to happen I think you’re going to see thousands of projects become zombie ghost chains as founders/devs simply walk away upon the realization they aren’t going to get FU-money rich on a hype cycle dumping on retail + dev salaries aren’t worth it without the cash out opportunity.
so tldr: a large core position of btc/eth/maybe sol probably offers the best risk adjusted returns as they’ve all achieved PMF in different use cases (btc: money; eth: tech platform/TradFi use cases; sol: cheap normie/meme chain). beyond that seems to be guessing/luck as there’s simply too many projects for a crypto native to keep track of now let alone a NPC with zero exposure to the ecosystem.
and monero is just cool. has 10 years Lindy/track record and an easy enough narrative for the masses to accept: digital private cash.
the thing these coins all have in common is they’re all nearly fully distributed/emitted with no huge VC unlocks/constant sell pressure. Sol is 80% max supply but weathered that storm admirably during the bear market/FTX collapse which bodes well for its future imo. wish I had more cash available late 2022 when it was sub-$10.