Value Investor Jeremey Grantham: "Sell Everything" - Page 2 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham believes we're on the cusp of the bursting of an epic bubble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Mr. Grantham believes we are "months" (not years) away from this meltdown.

When it comes to the stock market and investing, I have an incredible track record for being nearly always wrong. Be that as it may, something tells me Mr. Grantham just may be right ... One way or the other, we'll know by the end of this year - if not sooner.

Seven-month bump. SPX was at ~3700 when this was posted. I don't think it EVER got that low since. I wonder what the odds are that it EVER gets that low again. (Someone can infer the odds from via SPY options if they're so inclined.) The old saw has evolved for a new generation: "Bulls make money, bears get slaughtered, pigs get rich."

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08-27-2021 , 04:56 PM

#27

mrbaseball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 13,092

That call hasn't aged well (yet?) I'm happy to just keep riding the wave higher while sporadically buying puts (more today) and watching them go out worthless or hedging them on dips by turning them into calendars and still seeing them go out worthless. Whenever the actual reckoning comes I will have enough puts in place to ride it out

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08-27-2021 , 07:02 PM

#28

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on

how does the demand for the dollar dissipate until USA loses its militarized prowess?

barring no physical war, it seems some kind of cyber warfare loss to china or something might instigate the transition of a reserve currency

until then.. :shrug:

USA will not lose its military power unless there is destruction of the USD. And even then, will not be the loss most expect.

To be clear, China is a HUGE ****ING JOKE. You have to go back to fun powder and silk to find something original coming out of China…

Nor is Russia a replacement. I’m fact, no other country and that is true for lots of reasons. It is difficult for me to imagine the home of the internet, the nuclear bomb, and SpaceX falling behind militarily.

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08-27-2021 , 10:18 PM

#29

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,302

None of the finance big wigs ever seem to get anything right, yet they all called the housing market in retrospect. Seriously, how many people are credited with calling that? I bet if we researched exactly what they said, a lot of it would've been nothing more than vague wording about timing/consequences.

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08-28-2021 , 01:41 AM

#30

As1an1nvas1on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

there is systemic risk somewhere right now. when does it catalyze is tough to tell

either you buy the nuke and you go down with everyone or you dont buy the nuke and still go down with everyone

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08-28-2021 , 02:33 AM

#31

As1an1nvas1on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

*either:

you dont buy the nuke and go down with everyone

OR

you buy the nuke and get great prices or you buy the nuke and go down with everyone

profit?

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08-30-2021 , 10:50 AM

#32

Z06Fanatic1

adept

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 835

Who cares what anyone says - you hear people on both sides of the coin everyday. Either you have an intelligent strategy for making these decisions yourself that's profitable or you're just wasting your time. Usually when you're listening to others to make decisions you're behind the 8 ball.

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