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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

11-10-2017 , 06:01 PM
Is there a breakdown in HA's reports what % of their revenue (+margins) are to and from Hawaii vs interisland ?
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11-15-2017 , 05:53 PM
Anyone here has an opinion on Fortress Paper? Stock has fallen quite a bit. Management seems of the overpromise and underdeliver type though, but if pulp prices turn it could be a really big winner.
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11-15-2017 , 10:24 PM
for the nts.v-guys:
cfo was at a conference today. just listened to the webcast.
obviously he can't really say anything groundbreaking, but from what i read between the lines it doesn't sound like there's anything new on the chinese contract.
seemed much happier when talking about tax-stamps and some new business opportunities they saw in india and other asian countries.
i guess it's not really news, but he confirmed that licensing revenue should gradually overtake design revenue over the next 3 years.
he said numbers will be out in about 3 weeks, which would be a little earlier than last year.
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11-15-2017 , 11:29 PM
link to the webcast?
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11-15-2017 , 11:59 PM
direct link: http://wsw.com/webcast/threepa24/nts...bby=true&day=1
don't know if it works, i had to register like for an earnings call. if not:

https://www.threepartadvisors.com/southwest-ideas
at the top there's a yellow button 'Company Webcast'. nanotech was today at 10:00am. only the html5 worked for me.
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11-16-2017 , 09:16 AM
Oh they named China for the first time on any call or conference I've heard.

Anyway wow, from a buy hold perspective not sure you can listen to that conference and be anything but ridiculously pumped to make it to 2019-2020.
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11-16-2017 , 09:50 AM
Btw thanks for sharing that. Pretty pumped at some of the new verticals they mentioned in there too. I had never really done much EBITDA math on them when you include stuff like foils and cosmetics. Like the talk of expanding to 4-5 products in China now. Delicious.
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11-17-2017 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23
You're probably looking at book value but even then to calculate book value you have to back out the Delphax financials that are consolidated in their results right now. Either way, couldn't help myself and bought more at $14.50-$15.50 today. There's at least 3 large institutions that could be dumping for no reason or because they can't hold companies who miss filing deadlines (Fidelity, Renaissance, CALPERs) and held more shares than have traded hands in the last two days (60k). If the trading dries up here going forward the seller was most likely CALPERs who held just over 60k shares if it keeps going could be Fidelity or Renaissance or some private individual who held over 60k shares. I'm guessing their 10-K gets filed in the next couples weeks then the 10-Q in mid August. Two good catalysts to stabilize things as it doesn't appear to be related to any change in business outlet unless i've missed something. FedEx had a cyberattack at its newly acquired TNT business in Europe but that shouldn't affect the FedEx Feeder program in the US I wouldn't think.
Well this has worked out well so far. Company is 100% current on filings again and its clear their businesses are not imploding like the market reaction seemed to imply over the summer. Still decently cheap at $21 here. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the insiders start buying again now that their blackout period has probably lifted now that they are current on filings. They were buying at $22 around a year ago.
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11-17-2017 , 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by bigt2k4
Is there a breakdown in HA's reports what % of their revenue (+margins) are to and from Hawaii vs interisland ?
I'm almost positive most or all of this is available, either in their filings or from some FAA report I can't remember.
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11-17-2017 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23
Well this has worked out well so far. Company is 100% current on filings again and its clear their businesses are not imploding like the market reaction seemed to imply over the summer. Still decently cheap at $21 here. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the insiders start buying again now that their blackout period has probably lifted now that they are current on filings. They were buying at $22 around a year ago.
Thank you for this one. I took off half my position at 35% gain and plan to let the rest ride til next earnings report and will reevaluate then.
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11-18-2017 , 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Pokabandito
Thank you for this one. I took off half my position at 35% gain and plan to let the rest ride til next earnings report and will reevaluate then.
Yep BCI, thanks for this. I figure I'll at least hold through Q4 earnings since I would think just like retail & online this is the biggest season for shipping.
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11-21-2017 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23
Well this has worked out well so far. Company is 100% current on filings again and its clear their businesses are not imploding like the market reaction seemed to imply over the summer. Still decently cheap at $21 here. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the insiders start buying again now that their blackout period has probably lifted now that they are current on filings. They were buying at $22 around a year ago.
And there it is.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...0049-index.htm
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11-21-2017 , 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by dfgg
Anyone here has an opinion on Fortress Paper? Stock has fallen quite a bit. Management seems of the overpromise and underdeliver type though, but if pulp prices turn it could be a really big winner.
Is there any reason to believe that there could be a significant change in pulp prices?
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11-21-2017 , 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dfgg
Anyone here has an opinion on Fortress Paper? Stock has fallen quite a bit. Management seems of the overpromise and underdeliver type though, but if pulp prices turn it could be a really big winner.
Have owned the debentures since Jan 2016 when they were around 65. You are right about the management talking a lot and not backing it up though.
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11-22-2017 , 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Malachii
Is there any reason to believe that there could be a significant change in pulp prices?
Well the prices of pulp seem tied to cotton. And cotton might go up once those Chinese hoarded stockpiles run out. It would be nice if I could find out what the costs for the marginal players are though.
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11-22-2017 , 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by JL514
Yep BCI, thanks for this. I figure I'll at least hold through Q4 earnings since I would think just like retail & online this is the biggest season for shipping.
Heres what i'd say, if you sell here at $21-22 you are probably selling your shares to Nick. History has shown that selling to him when he is the insider is often a very expensive mistake.
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11-25-2017 , 06:52 PM
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ticle37019857/

25% a year for past 25 years, and is almost exclusively invested in commodity and energy stocks.

To read it, quickly stop the page from loading before that paywall thing appears.
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11-28-2017 , 03:26 AM
Is there a thread for autonomous vehicles (AV) and their long-term effects? Looking to make some very long-term (10-20+ years) individual stock "bets", partly with an expected future AV explosion in mind. Not betting on who's going to have the most popular products, but who's going to benefit from them.

Basically just tossing around blue chips I'm familiar with like MCD (both customers and their own shipping benefit tremendously, plus they're due for a big nostalgia pop soon as the '80s-'90s generation has more kids and Happy Meals are seen as necessary childhood rituals), SBUX (same but without the lull in public perception that MCD is undergoing), DIS (theme park technology, people getting to parks easier, lower labor costs, all of the IP even if people stop caring about parks, & I'm more bullish on their streaming service plan than most probably are).

Last edited by Baltimore Jones; 11-28-2017 at 03:33 AM.
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11-28-2017 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Cashed out of NXPI for 13% gain in less than one year.
Bought DDS, BRCD


Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DDS, RAD, DS, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, BRCD, PRSC preferreds

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, REMX, DS, DDS
Long Puts: HIIQ, STRP, MSI
Sold out of BRCD for 8ish% gain, REMX was a 15 bagger, HIIQ was -50% and MSI was -100%.

Bought ORBT. Probably going to be adding a lot more of it throughout this year and next.

Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DS, DDS, RAD, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, PRSC preferreds, ORBT

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, DS, DDS
Long Puts: STRP
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11-29-2017 , 04:56 PM
Thoughts on GE? It's tanked like 33% in the past year.

It took a significant hit from announcing a 50% cut to its dividend recently, and then another significant hit after announcing its new direction/recovery under new CEO John Flannery. Investors did not think the restructuring is aggressive enough. Are they right?

Is it in danger of losing its Dow status?

Seems like the price has bottomed out. Is now is a good time to buy?
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12-03-2017 , 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by TeflonDawg

Seems like the price has bottomed out. Is now is a good time to buy?
I have not looked in depth at GE. My .02 is that people tend to buy in too soon. Wait until you see signs of an actual turn around.
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12-04-2017 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
DIS (theme park technology, people getting to parks easier, lower labor costs, all of the IP even if people stop caring about parks, & I'm more bullish on their streaming service plan than most probably are).
I'm hoping to buy this in the future when the market tanks. I think the deteriorating domestic TV market and ESPN specifically might also cause some excessive sell-offs whenever they report new numbers, offering a better price.

Anyone here ever looked at WRLD? I bought some recently. P/FCF is the main metric I look at and it's awful cheap when viewed that way. I think we now have a Consumer Federal Protection Bureau that is not all concerned with protecting consumers, and that should be good for this company.
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12-12-2017 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DS, DDS, RAD, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, PRSC preferreds, ORBT

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, DS, DDS
Long Puts: STRP
Bought some MGM to play on the Supreme court ruling for allowing sports betting in NJ, per myrna. Will hold through the ruling.

Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DS, DDS, RAD, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, MGM, PRSC preferreds, ORBT

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, DS, DDS
Long Puts: STRP
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12-20-2017 , 10:59 AM
BCI,

Do you have any interest in ISIG with this Biglari fire sale?
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12-21-2017 , 05:18 PM
For you NTS.V folks, we got exactly the quarter we expected, which is good.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nanot...210100637.html
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