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Old 09-19-2017, 07:32 PM   #2351
guller
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone know what's up with HOS lately? On a nice run, just deciding if I should bail on my $6.5 shares or hold for while longer.
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Old 09-21-2017, 07:16 PM   #2352
CharlieDontSurf
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Anyone know what's up with HOS lately? On a nice run, just deciding if I should bail on my $6.5 shares or hold for while longer.
solid run since the mid 2's.
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Old 09-23-2017, 08:42 AM   #2353
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

buying at 6.50 and thinking of bailing? 6.50 implies you bought it this year. if thats the case, whats changed since you made the initial investment? Nothing will be determined until 2019 when they start examining their first bond maturity and see where the markets at. we still know nothing
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:48 AM   #2354
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Took a profit in Mastech. Looks like it trades on about 11x pro forma 2017 earnings now with no growth. (assuming Mastech old business generates $4.5m and $2m of interest, then adding back $0.8m of amortization).

Released infotrellis financials:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...2912dex992.htm

I studied a bunch of consulting businesses, and I don't like that their margins are this high, and that pay-off for former owners of Infotrellis is not tied that much to performance.

Seems too much of a gamble at this point for too little upside?
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Old 09-28-2017, 02:10 PM   #2355
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Cashed out of RAIL, ODP, FBRC, NVTR, for a grand total of a 40% gain.

Still bagholding RAD. Forgot that I still own PDEX and PRSC preferreds.

Bought DS (cicakman's idea) and DGLY (ToothSayer's idea)

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, SLP, RAD, PDEX, NXPI, FELP, DGLY, DS, PRSC preferreds

Short TSLA from $340.
Cashed out of NXPI for 13% gain in less than one year.
Bought DDS, BRCD


Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DDS, RAD, DS, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, BRCD, PRSC preferreds

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, REMX, DS, DDS
Long Puts: HIIQ, STRP, MSI
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Old 09-28-2017, 02:50 PM   #2356
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

MS you don't think NXPI has more room?
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Old 09-28-2017, 03:13 PM   #2357
Morishita System
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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MS you don't think NXPI has more room?
Merger price is $110. I'm not sure what more you are expecting with it at $113 right now.
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Old 09-28-2017, 03:58 PM   #2358
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

It seems in order for that to happen qualcomm needs to acquire 70% of the shares and they have no where near that. Seems a good chance that they will have to sweeten the pot.
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Old 09-28-2017, 05:35 PM   #2359
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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It seems in order for that to happen qualcomm needs to acquire 70% of the shares and they have no where near that. Seems a good chance that they will have to sweeten the pot.
That may very well be.
I just think BRCD is a better spot.
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Old 09-28-2017, 06:18 PM   #2360
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Cashed out of NXPI for 13% gain in less than one year.
Bought DDS, BRCD


Current longs (based on size)
SLP, AGO, DDS, RAD, DS, PDEX, FELP, DGLY, BRCD, PRSC preferreds

Short: TSLA

Long Calls: HTZ, REMX, DS, DDS
Long Puts: HIIQ, STRP, MSI
What's your average on RAD? I'm quite tempted to start a position here.
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Old 09-28-2017, 06:31 PM   #2361
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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What's your average on RAD? I'm quite tempted to start a position here.
I've been bagholding since 4.
However, the sum of its parts is clearly >$4.50, so I don't mind the baghold.
It will just take longer than I had anticipated for it to recover.
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Old 09-28-2017, 06:42 PM   #2362
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Yeah I ask more because I respect your analysis a lot, and if you liked it there you must love it here. No desire to average down here?
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Old 09-28-2017, 06:56 PM   #2363
Morishita System
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Yeah I ask more because I respect your analysis a lot, and if you liked it there you must love it here. No desire to average down here?
Not particularly, since I have no idea how long it will take for RAD to resolve back to its normal expected price. It will get there though.

For my other positions, I have a fairly good idea as to what price I expect them to be and at what point in time, so it's a lot easier to handicap and size accordingly. My only exceptions are AGO which is a permanent holding so long as the current CEO is in charge, and SLP which I have no particular exit frame since it's just an excellent company at the price I got it for.
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Old 10-02-2017, 12:12 PM   #2364
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone here looked at Data communications (DCM).
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Old 10-04-2017, 10:28 PM   #2365
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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I got RMGN idea from Greenhaven and I'm also long EVI based on his analysis. Kind of regretting not getting out of EVI at recent highs. Agree that it's way overpriced right now. Last earnings, the price settled at ~19.50 and I expect similar results for this quarter, but it's still a solid long term hold. The Ahmad family knows how to run companies.

Other ideas I got from him are FCAU (have calls at various prices in Jan and March; these have done great!), HHC (October calls; not so great), LMB warrants and ETSY.
My biggest leak is not following my own thought process. EVI hit new ATHs and I had a limit order to sell in that did not hit. I was planning on shorting the stock in anticipation of a disappointing annual report, but they released it without notice. Then some random shortseller released a report on how the company is a fraud (it's not lol) and the stock lost another 20% this week. Overall, not getting that sell order in and shorting the stock was a high 5 figure mistake. Still long EVI and may add to the position if the price gets lower.

FCAU is doing great and still a buy. HHC is still a buy, but my October options are going to expire. Other strong longs are DSKE, CISN, and LMB. AIRT is doing ok, but still hasn't filed.
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Old 10-05-2017, 09:07 PM   #2366
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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My biggest leak is not following my own thought process. EVI hit new ATHs and I had a limit order to sell in that did not hit. I was planning on shorting the stock in anticipation of a disappointing annual report, but they released it without notice.
Imo the best time to sell is when you still feel like holding on for a little while. The key to a good selling strategy is to leave some meat on the bone for others and not try to sell at the top or at full value. Otherwise you have to buy from a sucker and also sell to a sucker (twice as hard). For some reason I always feel like holding on to stocks that do well, even though it makes no sense since they are now more expensive so less attractive.

People always think that if you sell too soon you miss out when it really soars away from you, but same thing can happen other way around, you sell and it falls down again allowing you to run it up twice. But you remember the times you sold too soon.
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Old 10-05-2017, 11:19 PM   #2367
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Imo the best time to sell is when you still feel like holding on for a little while. The key to a good selling strategy is to leave some meat on the bone for others and not try to sell at the top or at full value. Otherwise you have to buy from a sucker and also sell to a sucker (twice as hard). For some reason I always feel like holding on to stocks that do well, even though it makes no sense since they are now more expensive so less attractive.

People always think that if you sell too soon you miss out when it really soars away from you, but same thing can happen other way around, you sell and it falls down again allowing you to run it up twice. But you remember the times you sold too soon.
Based on what I know about EVI you are betting on the CEO being able to create a ton of value over the long run so I don't think you should be trying to time your selling perfectly and instead just hold on for the ride, especially if you are holding in taxable accounts. Selling strategies i think are more important if you are buying super cheap lower quality companies with questionable management, Net-Nets, low P/B, or a short term event driven type trades.
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Old 10-06-2017, 12:20 AM   #2368
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by ahnuld View Post
buying at 6.50 and thinking of bailing? 6.50 implies you bought it this year. if thats the case, whats changed since you made the initial investment? Nothing will be determined until 2019 when they start examining their first bond maturity and see where the markets at. we still know nothing
^ this is exactly how value investors should generally think.
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Old 10-06-2017, 12:25 PM   #2369
calmasahinducow
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by dfgg View Post
Imo the best time to sell is when you still feel like holding on for a little while. The key to a good selling strategy is to leave some meat on the bone for others and not try to sell at the top or at full value. Otherwise you have to buy from a sucker and also sell to a sucker (twice as hard). For some reason I always feel like holding on to stocks that do well, even though it makes no sense since they are now more expensive so less attractive.

People always think that if you sell too soon you miss out when it really soars away from you, but same thing can happen other way around, you sell and it falls down again allowing you to run it up twice. But you remember the times you sold too soon.
The psychological aspect of investing is the hardest and something I still need to work on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23 View Post
Selling strategies i think are more important if you are buying super cheap lower quality companies with questionable management, Net-Nets, low P/B, or a short term event driven type trades.
I think there are a lot of compelling trade situations in these small market cap stocks with wide spreads and limited liquidity. Yeah I think EVI is a long term hold, but when I know the company is overvalued and the other side of the trade is likely to be a passive fund piling into small-caps or some fish from StockTwits it's hard to resist selling.

For reference, last month EVI announced an acquisition that was half cash and half stock and the company assigned the stock a fair value of ~$24. The price of the stock on the open market was ~$32 and it dipped to ~$29 before recovering. Even considering tax implications, this is a trade opportunity that seems to be something out of Benjamin Graham's era. The market is supposed to be more efficient than this.
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Old 10-06-2017, 12:59 PM   #2370
dfgg
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Why exactly is EVI cheap? It trades at a ridic earning multiple with net debt and only 20% gross margins. Seems pretty overvalued to me regardless of who runs it.
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Old 10-06-2017, 02:52 PM   #2371
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Why exactly is EVI cheap? It trades at a ridic earning multiple with net debt and only 20% gross margins. Seems pretty overvalued to me regardless of who runs it.
To me it's a fairly cultic belief in the CEO and an eye towards revenue growth now with the hope of higher margins in the future. That's why I took the shirt side of the trade over the last month though. Covered it in the 23s this week though.
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Old 10-06-2017, 03:00 PM   #2372
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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To me it's a fairly cultic belief in the CEO and an eye towards revenue growth now with the hope of higher margins in the future.
I think that's a fairly succinct long argument.
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Old 10-06-2017, 06:37 PM   #2373
Pokabandito
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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I think that's a fairly succinct long argument.
For a long term investment horizon, it is. Will take a year or more to see if the multiple supported by that thesis is worth it.

Wouldn't be shocked if it's back in the 30s in the next month or 2 though. Earnings and the short writeup were the catalyst for this drop. As they continue to grow through M/A, the revenue growth should push the stock back up.
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Old 10-06-2017, 07:23 PM   #2374
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone looking at software companies. I see a ton of cheap ones in NA market. Especially microcaps.
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Old 10-06-2017, 07:38 PM   #2375
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

What do you guys think of WBA? I think the stock dropped big time since the merge with Rite Aid failed, But feel like it will bounce back?
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