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Old 02-27-2017, 11:23 PM   #2151
Morishita System
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Its a profitable net-net. The track record of baskets of profitable net-nets is pretty incredible. No one who understands Grahams approach expects stocks below quick liquidation value to be the cream of the crop. Its pretty cool though to me you hate this one. Often this thread has been a good contrarian indicator.
No, it's a net-net because many Chinese small caps are scams and it is almost impossible to tell which are scams and which are not. How can you demonstrate that they are not a scam?

I understand Graham's approach and use a variation of it myself for longs (SORL also appeared on my screens a lot) but it certainly should not be applied blindly unless you are just buying all of the net-nets as a basket.
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Old 02-27-2017, 11:59 PM   #2152
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Its a profitable net-net. The track record of baskets of profitable net-nets is pretty incredible. No one who understands Grahams approach expects stocks below quick liquidation value to be the cream of the crop. Its pretty cool though to me you hate this one. Often this thread has been a good contrarian indicator.
So, since you brought it up we should therefore short it because this thread has often been a good contrarian indicator?

I'm confused.
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Old 03-01-2017, 06:41 PM   #2153
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Any of you NTS.V tailers from the Ahnuld thread, keys from the call:


Bad quarter by the numbers (like they telegraphed), but guidance was monster. They landed their biggest ever development contract. 30m total for 5 years, 2017 has 6.5m coming. They expect the contract sizes to keep growing like this one as people's confidence in the NTS technology has increased thanks to proof in the field.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/na...210100532.html

China revenue delays: The customer takes their new product, compares it to their existing bill and want it to look EXACTLY the same. When it doesn't match it takes 2 months to get another meeting to get another try at it. Since they are sliding in the NTS material into their live production machines in China, they have to wait till their production isn't live to do this. So again it's been slow to get that right but they feel they will. No hard date in 2017 as to when (which is smart by them since their past guidance was always so off).

Tax stamp revenue they expect in 2017 (the market is as big as bank note, but 80% price level of bank notes). Tax stamps make .80 cents per 1000 tax stamps, means $800k license fee on 1B stamps (100% margin). They are adding a new scientist, more sales people, and another graphic's guy to grow with the past Q's contracts. But they expect overall costs to stay pretty flat in 2017.

Their biggest anticipated areas of growth are more bank notes and tax stamps. They are at different timelines for various tax stamp contracts. In some cases they are quite far in the process. They still think they can double revenue in 2017 despite China delays.



So tomorrow should be a really good day.

Last edited by rafiki; 03-01-2017 at 06:52 PM.
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Old 03-01-2017, 07:06 PM   #2154
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

thanks for the cliffs. was looking forward to it for days and then was totally caught up in a poker game
gonna listen to the call later.
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Old 03-01-2017, 07:29 PM   #2155
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Also if you listen to the call the first questions (canaccord analyst) hints at his guesses for who the contract is with. I have the same guess as him.
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:04 AM   #2156
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Also if you listen to the call the first questions (canaccord analyst) hints at his guesses for who the contract is with. I have the same guess as him.
Are they actually redoing their money as a result of that election? I liked his comments, made me smile.

Also it's nice to see this management team finally start to understand that overcommitting and underperforming doesn't help them or shareholders. You can actually feel them maturing call to call.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:53 AM   #2157
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Got more NTS at the open at 1.26-1.28. If there ever was an example of market inefficiency, that's it right there. Still strikes me as poorly priced at 1.34.
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Old 03-02-2017, 12:45 PM   #2158
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by rafiki View Post
Got more NTS at the open at 1.26-1.28. If there ever was an example of market inefficiency, that's it right there. Still strikes me as poorly priced at 1.34.
Definitely a lot more of that going on when the market cap is under 100m.
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Old 03-07-2017, 05:20 PM   #2159
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone liking amaya as a long term play. Stock went up today 8%
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Old 03-09-2017, 02:58 AM   #2160
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Thoughts on Seadrill limited (SDRL) down here at $1.85?

Also, not deep value, but Ralph Lauren?
SDRL is likely going to be trouble for their common shareholders.

They simply have too much debt and are looking to restructure it. If I recall correctly, they are trying to get this done by the end of April.

IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL, shareholders are likely to face MASSIVE dilution.

IF THEY FAIL, shareholders are likely looking at a wipe-out in bankruptcy.

I think there might be bargains in the drilling sector, but you've got to watch the debt levels.

As for RL, they've certainly got a great brand. Retail is weak right now, and likely facing more problems in the months & years ahead.

One thing I'm looking at is Guess?, ticker is GES. Rock solid balance sheet, and good dividend.
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Old 03-09-2017, 04:07 PM   #2161
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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SDRL is likely going to be trouble for their common shareholders.

They simply have too much debt and are looking to restructure it. If I recall correctly, they are trying to get this done by the end of April.

IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL, shareholders are likely to face MASSIVE dilution.

IF THEY FAIL, shareholders are likely looking at a wipe-out in bankruptcy.

I think there might be bargains in the drilling sector, but you've got to watch the debt levels.

As for RL, they've certainly got a great brand. Retail is weak right now, and likely facing more problems in the months & years ahead.

One thing I'm looking at is Guess?, ticker is GES. Rock solid balance sheet, and good dividend.
isn't this the same quandry Tidewater and Hos are going to be in soon?
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Old 03-09-2017, 06:35 PM   #2162
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

From PRSC earnings, a fire hose not a straw for share repurchases:

"Share Repurchases

From November 4, 2016 through March 6, 2017 the Company repurchased 677,451 shares of common stock for $26.2 million, or for an average price of $38.71 per share. Since beginning to repurchase shares in the fourth quarter of 2015 through March 6, 2017, the Company has repurchased 2.7 million shares of common stock, or approximately 17.0% of the Company’s common stock outstanding at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2015, for $118.2 million, or for an average price of $43.06 per share."
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Old 03-09-2017, 06:48 PM   #2163
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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isn't this the same quandry Tidewater and Hos are going to be in soon?
You very well may be correct, but I can't say for sure with either Tidewater or HOS.

The whole key is the debt, and it's maturity schedules.

I strongly suspect that oil will be higher in the next few years....could be trouble with Iran, war, increased demand, who knows?

Also, think about this...at $50 a barrel, oil does not have to advance too much further for offshore to make sense. If oil goes a bit above $60 AND STAYS THERE, then offshore should start to come back to life.

The whole key is if a company can service their debt/maintenance capital spending for the next 2-3 years. If so, they are likely to do well at some time.

If they need to refinance soon, they are facing big time trouble.

I've heard Diamond Offshore is well positioned...but haven't spent any time researching them.

On a different note: RETAIL GOT CRUSHED TODAY! A lot of companies reporting weak sales.

Tailored Brands (TLRD) was down $7.53 (-32%) to $15.84 a share. Other retailers were down, but not nearly as much.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is near a multi-year low, Enterprise Value/EBITDA is at 2.59!!!!!!!

I anticipate that ALL names in retail are going to be under severe pressure in the upcoming year. The time to research and pick your names is NOW. Be ready to act when Mr. Market panics and sell everything retail related indiscriminately later in the year....
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Old 03-10-2017, 12:06 PM   #2164
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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you guys have any names you like under $75m market cap at current prices? Lots of names have been running up on me.
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I like PIRS a lot, was a big day for longs yesterday but really from a value perspective in my mind, it's still about the same in relation to where I see this being in 5-6 years.


I'm expecting to see the % of institutional holding rise on this steady through 2017-2018. Their IP is just ridiculously robust if you take the time to read what they're sitting on: http://www.pieris.com/

You will rarely see a pipeline this diverse and their partner list is impressive: http://www.pieris.com/pipeline/overview

Obviously they won't take them all into phase I, but they're just stacked. I think the market doesn't love Yoder as CEO since he's not one to take a drug to market (likes to sell them off way before). But in this case I think they eventually would like to unless they're bought out.


Up 40-50% since we talked, in a sector that's taken a beating during that same time.
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Old 03-10-2017, 12:59 PM   #2165
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

This slide deck on buffalo wild wing has been making the rounds this morning.

http://www.winningatwildwings.com/co...ame-3.8.17.pdf
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Old 03-10-2017, 03:15 PM   #2166
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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This slide deck on buffalo wild wing has been making the rounds this morning.

http://www.winningatwildwings.com/co...ame-3.8.17.pdf
I've talked to people that used to work at BWLD corporate and I can say Marcato is pretty spot on in almost all of their criticisms.
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Old 03-10-2017, 03:23 PM   #2167
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Up 40-50% since we talked, in a sector that's taken a beating during that same time.
Nice! It was just soo far from the types of companies I typically like to look at. On the surface the valuation looks incredibly speculative but I suppose if you really understood the market and the potentially opportunities and trusted the mgmt you could build out a case that its a good risk/reward opportunity. Wasn't something I was going to spend the time on trying to figure out. GL!
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:23 PM   #2168
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone following NVTR care to give an update on what happened to warrant a 20% clip?

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:30 AM   #2169
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Anyone following NVTR care to give an update on what happened to warrant a 20% clip?

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
Pretty standard for this stock and industry, even more so given the market cap. That said obviously people were hoping they'd slow down the losses a bit more than they had. Sales up but the growth of their sales team added a lot to the expense column. I'd think in 2 Q's from now we'll start to be able to see if dilution is on the horizon.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:43 AM   #2170
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Pretty standard for this stock and industry, even more so given the market cap. That said obviously people were hoping they'd slow down the losses a bit more than they had. Sales up but the growth of their sales team added a lot to the expense column. I'd think in 2 Q's from now we'll start to be able to see if dilution is on the horizon.
I sold most of mine before quarter as its probably the peak loss. Should blow another 11mm in Q1 before things start looking better. Their sales were pretty much in line with my model. Expenses a bit higher.
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Old 03-15-2017, 05:40 AM   #2171
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

What are everyone's thought's on buying & holding GILD for long term? I have followed the company for the last half a year and they seem really level headed, sure the hep c sales were down but their investments in hiv and other sectors for future growth plus the 30b in the bank for small acquisitions seems like a really good spot to be in.

I'm on of the few that also doesn't mind their CEO and completely support their idea to just do small acquisitions instead of overpaying for INCY, thoughts?
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Old 03-15-2017, 10:54 AM   #2172
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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What are everyone's thought's on buying & holding GILD for long term? I have followed the company for the last half a year and they seem really level headed, sure the hep c sales were down but their investments in hiv and other sectors for future growth plus the 30b in the bank for small acquisitions seems like a really good spot to be in.

I'm on of the few that also doesn't mind their CEO and completely support their idea to just do small acquisitions instead of overpaying for INCY, thoughts?
I read this exact post at $90, at $80, at $70. Somewhere someone is probably going to be right. Just a matter of if you're missing better opportunity elsewhere, and what the catalyst is for recovery.
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Old 03-15-2017, 11:28 AM   #2173
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Thanks for the tip on NTS.V. Got in at 1.28 and planning to hold for a long time.

Today I got in JinkoSolar at 16.33. Might take a while before the stock moves up, but it looked like decent value to me. This guy wrote a few articles about the stock http://seekingalpha.com/author/growt...gular_articles

Any thoughts on JKS?

I'm a bit of a newb in terms of security analysis but I figured that if I buy a couple interesting stocks it will force me to get into it deeper and learn.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:43 AM   #2174
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by EZX View Post
What are everyone's thought's on buying & holding GILD for long term? I have followed the company for the last half a year and they seem really level headed, sure the hep c sales were down but their investments in hiv and other sectors for future growth plus the 30b in the bank for small acquisitions seems like a really good spot to be in.

I'm on of the few that also doesn't mind their CEO and completely support their idea to just do small acquisitions instead of overpaying for INCY, thoughts?
I bought yesterday's close. They may have $30b in the bank, but they also have a decent amount of debt.

The INCY was a fake news by cramer & co, and I don't like it.

Probably selling short term puts is the way to go here... Above the descending resistence, probably it's fine to get short term call..

btw, ecplusa sells at €6.5k in Italy.. probably EU is going to follow, HCV to me will bring 1.5-2B/yr at most (if I have to guess a number), which is way lower than it is worth now, and it is waaaay higher than what the market think it is really worth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTEJD1997 View Post
SDRL is likely going to be trouble for their common shareholders.

They simply have too much debt and are looking to restructure it. If I recall correctly, they are trying to get this done by the end of April.

IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL, shareholders are likely to face MASSIVE dilution.

IF THEY FAIL, shareholders are likely looking at a wipe-out in bankruptcy.

I think there might be bargains in the drilling sector, but you've got to watch the debt levels.

As for RL, they've certainly got a great brand. Retail is weak right now, and likely facing more problems in the months & years ahead.

One thing I'm looking at is Guess?, ticker is GES. Rock solid balance sheet, and good dividend.
thanks
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Old 03-21-2017, 10:49 AM   #2175
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Thoughts on BX? It appears well positioned and it has a nice 5% dividend yield.
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